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Showers and storms continue to push eastward across Mississippi tonight. They are severe from the Grenada area south southwestward to Belzoni then into eastern Louisiana, approaching the River around Vicksburg and Port Gibson.

SOME WIND REPORTS
…Many reports of trees down in Louisiana, including in the parishes along I-20, and around Jonesboro and in Natchioches.
…Numerous trees down across Chicot CO in Arkansas.
…Several power outages across the Delta region of western Mississippi, including around Bolivar, Indianola and Inverness.

The storms are most intense around Holmes County in Central Mississippi, which is south of Greenwood. Damaging winds are likely, and an isolated spin up tornado can’t be ruled out. Severe severe thunderstomr warnings have been laid out ahead of the storms.

There is still a severe thunderstorm watch for Central Mississippi. The tornado watch has expired.

These storms are about 2.5-3 hours away from the Alabama border. It will be interesting to see if they hold together enough to have any intensity when they reach the state line.

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A line of strong thunderstorms is slowing down and weakening as it tries to push across Mississippi tonight.

Despite the overall weakening trend, the storms on the southern end have intensified. The storm that is at the end of the line, the “tail end Charlie”, has become severe and now has two severe thunderstorm warnings and a tornado warning. It is located just north of Greenwood. The potentially tornadic part will pass near or north of Grenada.

A tornado watch remains in effect for the northern third of Mississippi and it remains to be seen if one will be issued soon for Central Mississippi.

It remains to be seen whether the storms will make it into Alabama later tonight. They could move into northwestern Alabama before falling completely apart. The cap is strengthening over Alabama tonight, despite decent instability that remains in place. This means that the storms should continue to weaken overnight. But as always, we will be watching to make sure that happens.

Showers and storms will likely fire again tomorrow, probably over eastern Alabama in the afternoon. A couple of the storms could be strong, but the best chance for severe weather till be to the north, from Tennessee northward.

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RADAR CHECK: About 90 percent of Alabama is warm and dry… but a strong storm did clip the northwest corner of the state earlier this afternoon; for a brief time that storm produced some hail and a severe thunderstorm warning was required for parts of Colbert and Lauderdale Counties. To the west, a tornado watch is up until 10p CT for parts of North Mississippi and West Tennessee, but organized severe weather is not expected in our state.

Generally speaking, this is the warmest day so far this year for most of Alabama with temperatures in the 87-91 degree range at mid-afternoon. Birmingham and Tuscaloosa report 88 degrees at 3:00… Montgomery has soared to 91.

SOME RAIN AT TIMES: We will mention a chance of scattered showers and storms tomorrow, but the main dynamics will weaken a bit and pass well to the north of Alabama, so for now a big severe weather event isn’t expected tomorrow, but we certainly could see a strong storm or two based on the projected instability and shear values. Hail and gusty winds will be the main threat from the stronger storms. The high tomorrow will be in the low to mid 80s.

THURSDAY: Computer guidance suggests much of the day Thursday will be rain-free with a partly sunny sky and a high in the mid to upper 80s. But, a cold front will enter North Alabama during the afternoon, and the high resolution NAM shows a broken band of showers and storms ahead of the front. There are some outdoor graduations planned for Thursday night, and it looks like the window for a passing shower or storm will come from about 4 p.m. until 11 p.m… so you might want to have an indoor backup plan just in case. No severe weather is expected with any storms that form Thursday evening.

FRIDAY AND THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND: A nice surge of cool, dry air blows into Alabama late Thursday night. We project sunny warm days, and clear cool nights over the long weekend. We won’t get out of the 70s Friday, and it sure looks like much of North Alabama will visit the 40s early Saturday morning… very unusual for the Memorial Day weekend. Humidity levels will be low. Doesn’t get much better.

AT THE BEACH: Other than a few isolated showers/storms tomorrow night and Thursday, the weather will be superb. Sunny days, fair nights. Even lower humidity levels on the coast Friday and Saturday. Highs will be around 80 on the immediate coast, with low to mid 80s inland. Sea water temperatures are running generally in the mid 70s.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Scroll down for the show notes on this week’s new episode we recorded last night.

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I enjoyed the visit with the residents at St. Martin’s in the Pines in Birmingham earlier today… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

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The latest day one convective outlook has been issued and the Storm Prediction Center has now included portions of northern Alabama in a slight risk for severe weather. Areas from Pickens, Fayette, Cullman, Marshall and De Kalb Counties and areas to the north and west are included in this risk for severe weather. Hamilton, Cullman, Hunstville, Muscle Shoals and Haleyville are some of the larger cities included in the risk.

A cluster of showers and thunderstorms continues to push east across the state of Tennessee. There are a few severe thunderstorm warnings with this complex. Daytime heating, a very warm moist and unstable air mass and lift provided by outflow boundaries will allow for showers and thunderstorms to develop. The main concern with any severe weather that develops will be damaging winds and large hail. The main tornado threat should remain to the west of Alabama as a moderate risk for severe weather has been issued for areas from the Mississippi River back to Texas.

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May 21 Weather Xtreme Video - Morning Edition
The ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is a detailed weather discussion for Alabama and the Southeast U.S. which goes beyond the normal stuff you see on TV! From... From: ABC 33/40 Views: 57 1 ratings Time: 06:50 More in News & Politics

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

WE KNOW HOW THEY FEEL: I think this image taken by my friend from ABC News, Ginger Zee, pretty much sums up the situation in Moore, OK yesterday…

We will post opportunities to help these people as we learn of them. Death toll is 91 as I write this early this morning, and there is fear it will go higher. Probably over 100. Our death toll in Alabama April 27, 2011 was 252.

STILL DRY TODAY: Expect a good supply of sunshine across Alabama today with a high in the 86-90 degree range this afternoon. For some it will be the warmest day so far in 2013.

TO THE WEST: SPC has defined a “moderate risk” of severe weather for the Ark-La-Tex region… some cities included in this enhanced risk include Dallas, Shreveport, Texarkana, and Tyler. A slight risk surrounds this from the Texas Hill Country to Michigan.

TOMORROW/THURSDAY: The deep upper trough responsible for the severe weather across the Great Plains in recent days will weaken and pass far north of Alabama… any severe storms will be in states like Ohio, West Virginia, and Pennsylvania. We will mention a chance of scattered showers and storms here tomorrow, but rain amounts should be generally light and spotty. Other, tomorrow will be warm with a mix of sun and clouds and a high in the mid 80s.

We will hang on to some risk of a shower Thursday with a cold front passing through, but again rain amounts should be light, and some spots will miss the rain completely.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND: The weather doesn’t get any better as a dry, continental airmass drops into Alabama. Expect sunny warm days, and clear cool nights. We won’t get out of the 70s Friday with a refreshing north breeze, and it now looks like we will see a low near 50 degrees early Saturday, with 40s likely for the cooler spots around here. We rarely enjoy cool mornings like this in late May. Absolutely no risk of rain for the long, holiday weekend.

GULF COAST WEATHER: Looks great through Memorial Day from Panama City to Gulf Shores. You might see a brief passing shower or storm tomorrow or Thursday, otherwise mostly sunny days and fair nights. Highs on the immediate coast near 80, with mid 80s inland. The sea water temperature at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab this morning is 77 degrees.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon…. enjoy the day…

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WeatherBrains Episode 382 is now online (May 20, 2013). If you are crazy about weather, this is THE netcast audio program for you!

No WeatherBrains guest tonight as the show takes on a more somber note in light of the tragic news coming out of Moore, OK, where a tornado today was responsible for over 50 fatalities (at the time of the posting of the show notes). The discussion focuses on some of the issues that come out of events like this.

The winner of the contest for the bobblehead doll will be announced next week.

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

Extremes: 103 at Ocotillo Wells, CA, and 22 at Alamosa, CO, and Grand Canyon, AZ

Moderate risk for severe weather in the ArkLaTx for Tuesday

and more!

Our email bag officer will have the email bag in total next week.

From The Weather Center:

WeatherBrains 101 and This Week in Weather History will be back next week.

Listener Surveys: Okay, we continue to drive this topic into the ground, but we really do like to hear from you. Many thanks to everyone who has taken the time to fill out the Listener Survey. The survey takes just a minute or two to complete and provides us with an opportunity to learn where you are and hear your thoughts and comments on the show. Click here to take the survey.

Web Sites from Episode 382:

Moore, OK, Tracks from 1999 and 2013

Picks of the Week:

With the major weather events of today in Central Oklahoma, the picks of the week will also return next week.

The WeatherBrains crew includes your host, James Spann, plus other notable geeks like JB Elliott, Nate Johnson, Bill Murray, Kevin Selle, and Brian Peters. They bring together a wealth of weather knowledge and experience for another fascinating netcast about weather.

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WeatherBrains Episode 382 is now online (May 20, 2013). If you are crazy about weather, this is THE netcast audio program for you!

No WeatherBrains guest tonight as the show takes on a more somber note in light of the tragic news coming out of Moore, OK, where a tornado today was responsible for over 50 fatalities (at the time of the posting of the show notes). The discussion focuses on some of the issues that come out of events like this.

The winner of the contest for the bobblehead doll will be announced next week.

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

Extremes: 103 at Ocotillo Wells, CA, and 22 at Alamosa, CO, and Grand Canyon, AZ

Moderate risk for severe weather in the ArkLaTx for Tuesday

and more!

Our email bag officer will have the email bag in total next week.

From The Weather Center:

WeatherBrains 101 and This Week in Weather History will be back next week.

Listener Surveys: Okay, we continue to drive this topic into the ground, but we really do like to hear from you. Many thanks to everyone who has taken the time to fill out the Listener Survey. The survey takes just a minute or two to complete and provides us with an opportunity to learn where you are and hear your thoughts and comments on the show. Click here to take the survey.

Web Sites from Episode 382:

Moore, OK, Tracks from 1999 and 2013

Picks of the Week:

With the major weather events of today in Central Oklahoma, the picks of the week will also return next week.

The WeatherBrains crew includes your host, James Spann, plus other notable geeks like JB Elliott, Nate Johnson, Bill Murray, Kevin Selle, and Brian Peters. They bring together a wealth of weather knowledge and experience for another fascinating netcast about weather.

**No afternoon Weather Xtreme video… working social media support for the Moore, OK tornado**

A violent tornado moved through Moore, Oklahoma earlier this afternoon… destruction is severe and widespread; at least two schools were hit. We simply don’t know about fatalities or injuries since it happened less than one hour ago. Below is one of the schools hit… photo from KFOR-TV

90 DEGREES POSSIBLE TOMORROW: Here at home, an upper ridge will keep our weather dry tomorrow… we have potential for the first 90 degree day of 2013, but the latest guidance has most places in the 86-89 degree range, which sounds more likely due to the wet soil conditions.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: Scattered showers and storms are likely on these two days, but severe weather is not expected since the upper dynamics will weaken and pass well north of the state. Still, a strong storm or two is certainly possible Wednesday afternoon. Rain amounts should be one inch or less.

FRIDAY AND THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND: Delightful weather, with sunny warm days and clear cool nights. Looks like we drop into the cool 50s early Friday, Saturday, and Sunday morning. Highs will be near 80 Friday, with low to mid 80s Saturday and Sunday. The weather stays dry on Monday, Memorial Day.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show at 8:30 p.m. CT… you can watch live here.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

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From the air… from KFOR-TV

From the ground… from @ks0stm

Radar debris ball…. from OKC terminal radar…

TDS (tornado debris signature) from OKC dual pol CC…

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A large and powerful tornado is on the ground right now approaching Moore, Oklahoma.

Here is the stream from KFOR.

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An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

HEATING UP: The warmest temperature so far this year, based on data from the Birmingham Airport, is 87 degrees, measured on April 10. A decent chance we beat that today; the GFS and the NAM are printing a high of 88 this afternoon, and tomorrow a 90 degree high is a real possibility for the first time in 2013. An upper ridge should keep most of Alabama rain-free today and tomorrow with a partly to mostly sunny sky; any showers will be confined to the region near the Georgia border.

TO THE WEST: Another significant severe weather event is expected today, with SPC defining a “moderate risk” of severe weather from far North Texas, through the eastern half of Oklahoma, into Northwest Arkansas and Southwest Missouri. A slight risk extends as far north as the Great Lakes. Like yesterday, a few tornadoes are likely, along with storms with large hail and damaging wind.

The risk creeps eastward tomorrow, with the standard “slight risk” from East Texas to the Great Lakes, but no part of Alabama is in the risk tomorrow as our weather should remain dry.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: We will bring in the chance of scattered showers and storms for all of Alabama, but the main dynamic support will weaken and lift well north of here, so severe storms are not expected in our state. A shower or two is still possible on Thursday as a cold front moves through the state. Rain amounts Wednesday and Thursday should be generally one-half inch or less, and additional flooding issues are not expected (East Alabama had major flash flooding Saturday morning, and the ground is saturated there).

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: These three days looks delightful. Sunny warm days, fair cool nights. Highs in the 80s, lows in the 60-65 degree range, although cooler spots should visit the 50s early Friday and Saturday morning. Humidity levels will be lower thanks to continental air.

LONG RANGE: Still no sign of any organized severe weather issues in Alabama through the end of May. And, just for fun, the GFS shows a tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico in the June 3-4 time frame. This, of course, is pure voodoo, but the hurricane season does begin June 1, so it always bears watching. The most active tropical weather generally comes in August and September.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show tonight at 8:30 p.m. CT… you can watch it live on our cable channel “James Spann 24/7″… or on the web here.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

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May 20 Weather Xtreme Video - Morning Edition
The ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is a detailed weather discussion for Alabama and the Southeast U.S. which goes beyond the normal stuff you see on TV! From... From: abc3340 Views: 92 2 ratings Time: 06:44 More in News & Politics

Storms continue to slowly build southwestward this evening over Northeast Alabama into more unstable air to the southwest, aided by a cold pool of air aloft that is edging in from Georgia.

The storm over Marshall County has gotten quite strong with torrential rain, the possibility of small hail and strong gusty winds. It is not severe, however.

It is building back into northeastern Blount County, near Snead and Susan Moore. It will push south and southeast into Etowah County, as well as eastern Blount and across much of St. Clair County. Be alert to any flooding that develops, especially given all of the extreme rains that occurred on Saturday.

Other storms have grown quickly over St. Clair County between Ashville and Springville.

Strong storms have moved out of Calhoun and Cleburne Counties, pushing into Clay and Randolph Counties. They are not severe, but also have lot of torrential rain, lightning and even the possibility of some small hail.

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Strong storms continue over Northeast Alabama at this hour.

They are over Jackson and DeKalb Counties, down through Cherokee County, into Calhoun and Cleburne Counties.

Another strong storm has formed southwest of Gadsden in Etowah County.

The storms are not severe, but have plenty of lightning, torrential rains and gusty winds.

The storms are moving southeast, but the activity is trying to redevelop southwestward along the leading edge of a pool of cold air aloft that is spreading out like a big blob from the storm complex over Georgia.

The flash flood watch continues for Calhoun, Cherokee, Clay, Cleburne and Randolph Counties till 7:00 PM CDT for the heavy rainfall.

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The NWS, Media and Spotters are tracking a large tornado now just north of Luther, Oklahoma. It will be tracking very near Wellston shortly.

Here is streaming video from KFOR.

Another confirmed tornado is on the ground right now near Udall, KS.

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Portions of East Alabama have been included in the latest day one convective outlook issued by the SPC.

A ridge of high pressure is building in from the west. Over Georgia, strong and severe thunderstorms have been ongoing from this morning and now into the afternoon. These storms are sending out an outflow boundary into eastern Alabama. This boundary is interacting with the very warm, moist air mass and is providing enough uplift to get showers and a few thunderstorms to develop. The main threat from storms that develop today will be the chance for damaging winds. Areas to the east of Interstate 65 and stretching from Huntsville, Gadsden, Anniston, Auburn and Phenix City are included in this risk, Birmingham, Montgomery and areas to the west are not.

We will also have to monitor the area for a flooding threat as well. The showers and storms that form will be impacting the same areas that received 5-9 inches of rain Saturday morning and caused widespread flash flooding.

The risk is outlined in green on the map and once again only includes areas in East Alabama.

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Showers and thunderstorms have been widespread across eastern Tennessee and northern Georgia today. The storm complex over west central Georgia has prompted a severe thunderstorm watch and several warnings.

At one point, flash flood warnings blanketed counties three deep into western Georgia.

Outflow from the storms pushed west into eastern Alabama triggering a few showers and storms as well. One storm is between Rainbow City and Southside in Etowah County.

Showers and storms should be limited to our easternmost counties, from Jackson and DeKalb, through Etowah and Cherokee into Calhoun and Cleburne Counties, and into Clay, Randolph, Tallapoosa and Coosa Counties.

Storms may expand in coverage and intensity across South Central Alabama from the Auburn area back to Montgomery and Selma.

West of that, skies are trying to slowly clear. The most sunshine has been over the northwestern part of the state. It was 85F last hour at Muscle Shoals and 80F in Haleyville. It was 80F at Tuscaloosa, 77F at Birmingham and 71F at Anniston.

Over the Plains, convective initiation has started over Central Kansas. A tornado watch is in effect now for southern Nebraska, much of Kansas and northwestern Missouri, including Kansas City. Another watch will be coming up soon for much of Central Oklahoma. To the north, anotehr tornado watch is in effect for parts of Iowa and Minnesota.

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As predicted by the high resolution models, thunderstorms have redeveloped over western Georigia.

They are spreading south, just skirting the edges of Cherokee and Cleburne Counties in eastern Alabama. They will edge into Randolph and Chambers Counties as well.

The storms are quite intense in Georgia between Carroltton and the City of Atlanta.

Severe thunderstorm warnings are in effect for the western half of Atlanta Metro. Damaging wind is indicated on radar and there have been reports of small hail, and there is lots of lightning. Flooding is a major problem though, with most areas getting heavy rain yesterday. Flash flood warnings are in effect as well.

In Alabama, the flash flood watch continues for Calhoun, Chambers, Clay, Cleburne, Lee, Randolph and Tallapoosa Counties. All other counties have been cleared.

A review of skycams and satellite shows heavy clouds, but no rain in Alabama, except over Cherokee and Cleburne Counties. There has been a little drizzle in some spots, like eastern Jefferson County, but it is of no consequence.

Temperatures are in the 70s. Locations that stay cloudy may only make the lower 80s, but anywhere the sun breaks old, you can expect middle and upper 80s.

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An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

Looks like we are headed for a real taste of summer as an upper ridge grabs hold of the weather pattern for the next several days. An upper trough positioned over eastern Kentucky is helping to generate showers from Atlanta back to the northwest to near Nashville. The presence of the upper level trough means that showers remain a possibility primarily over the eastern side of the state and up into the northeastern corner. But as the upper ridge takes a stronger foothold in the pattern, we should see shower free weather for Monday and Tuesday. But with that upper ridge I expect temperatures to climb to around 90s degrees for highs with lower 90s possible on Tuesday.

By Wednesday we will be watching the approach of the strong upper trough that will be responsible for the Day 1 and Day 2 moderate risk areas for severe weather back in the Central Plains states. That trough is forecast to move across the Mississippi River on Wednesday increasing our chances for rain and thunderstorms. For now, the risk of severe weather appears to be low, but we will keep a wary eye on this system. While not a clear cut severe weather setup just yet, the warm weather and the ultimate strength of the trough will dictate whether or not we will see severe storms.

The pattern becomes a little more complex on Thursday along with model differences between the GFS and the European. The European tends to phase the upper systems while the GFS does not. At this point, I’m not sure which of the solutions will be correct. Following the GFS, the main trough goes by us on Thursday but another short wave comes out of the northwest right behind the first one. This second short wave would keep us in shower chances into early Saturday, but we could see a reasonably good weekend as showers end early Saturday with the passage of that short wave and a nice Sunday.

Right now, the 5-day QPF forecast suggests less than a half inch of rain coming primarily in the Wednesday and Thursday time frame.

Looking into week two, the upper ridge is expected to build into the Southeast strongly bringing a warm end to May. But the GFS continues to hint at some tropical mischief around the first of June. Yesterday, the GFS showed a well defined surface system coming out of the Yucatan into the eastern Gulf just offshore from Tampa. As expected, the GFS 24 hours later has some changes. While it still shows a fairly well defined surface system coming out of the western Caribbean, it now comes across Cuba into the Bahamas on June 2nd. So you see why we dub the long range projections as voodoo country since it can be all over the place from one run to another. But it’s fun to watch how it all evolves.

And you can follow news and weather updates from ABC 33/40 on Twitter here. Stay in the know by following the whole gang – here’s the list…

James Spann Charles Daniel Ashley Brand J. B. Elliott Bill Murray Brian Peters E-Warn (AL wx watches/warnings)

Be sure to watch the video to see the photo of the tornado my friend, John Huntington, caught in Kansas yesterday. Plus a big thanks to all the wonderful folks at the Fairfield facility of US Steel. I was invited to participate with them in their Family Safety Day, and I had a great time talking weather with folks. And the hamburgers and hot dog lunch was great! James Spann is expected back tomorrow morning with the latest edition of the Weather Xtreme Video. I hope your Sunday is a good one. Godspeed.

-Brian-

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