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This discussion sums it up for now:

…the line of storms is weakening as it encounters weakening instability in eastern Mississippi.
…but slightly higher dewpoints are creeping up into West Central Alabama. Tuscaloosa is at 64F now with a temperature of 79F, so warm air is still in place. Temperatures won’t cool substantially overnight thanks to the winds remaining up.
…wind shear profiles are still supportive of severe thunderstorms over Northwest Alabama and northeastern Mississippi though, so there is still a threat of isolated damaging winds and possibly even as tornado until the line weakens later tonight.
…probably won’t see a new watch later tonight unless things change.

The severe thunderstorm warning that was on the storm approaching Starkville was just canceled by the NWS Jackson. No reports of any damage in the past hour. There is still lightning, heavy rain and strong, gusty winds will the storm. It will reach southern Lamar and northern Pickens County by 10 p.m.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0528
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0846 PM CDT THU APR 18 2013

AREAS AFFECTED…NERN MS…NWRN AL…FAR SRN TN

CONCERNING…TORNADO WATCH 126…128…

VALID 190146Z – 190245Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 126…128…CONTINUES.

SUMMARY…ISOLATED/LOW-END DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADO THREATS MAY
PERSIST ALONG PRIMARILY THE SRN PORTION OF A RELATIVELY THIN QLCS.
THE THREAT APPEARS TO BE TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT AN ADDITIONAL
WW…BUT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

DISCUSSION…HIGHER REFLECTIVITY CORES HAVE CONTINUED TO
ELONGATE/THIN IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS…INDICATIVE OF
DIMINISHING INSTABILITY /ESPECIALLY WITH NRN EXTENT/. MEAGER
BUOYANCY/DESTABILIZATION IS STILL OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE LINE AS
SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE SLOWLY RISEN INTO THE MIDDLE 60S ACROSS
E-CNTRL MS/W-CNTRL AL. LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES ARE VERY STRONG WITH
A LARGE CYCLONIC HODOGRAPH SAMPLED IN THE COLUMBUS AFB MS VWP DATA.
THUS…A LARGELY WANING BUT LOW-END DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO RISK COULD
PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS THE LINE SHIFTS EWD.

The SPC has dramatically trimmed the Day One slight risk outlook area to just include parts of southern Tennessee, eastern Mississippi and much of Alabama.

The northeastern corner of Alabama has been removed.

You can see the new slight risk area outlined in solid green. The previous outlook is show in dotted green.

The white lines are the thunderstorm outlook.

Instability levels across Alabama are low and are not expected to increase much. But they aren’t supposed to drop substantially either. Wind profiles are sufficient for severe thunderstorms, so we will continue to monitor the storms as they come into the state. We are currently watching a severe storm in the Kosciusko area that will be approaching Columbus MS between 9 and 9:30.

The main threat for severe weather will be over northwestern counties, for Pickens through Fayette, Walker and Cullman Counties and points north and west.

All of the storms will weaken later tonight as the main dynamics lift out to the northeast.

The storm that produced a brief tornado in western Mississippi and prompted several tornado warnings before weakening over the past 75 minutes is ramping up again, about two hours southwest of Columbus.

It has the only severe thunderstorm warning in the country right now.

The NWS is watching it closely. Lightning output has ramped up dramatically. Rotation is increasing, even at the lower levels. It could trigger a new tornado warning shortly.

The storm is approaching Kosciusko in Attalla County. It will approach the Starkville area before 9 and Columbus around 9:30.

It will be into Pickens or Lamar Counties around 10 p.m.

Strong thunderstorms are moving across Central Mississippi tonight, prompting several tornado warnings late this afternoon and evening.

One is passing south of Yazoo City now. This storm shows high potential for straight line wind damage and has shown the potential for embedded tornadic vortices as well.A brief tornado was reported crossing US-61 at 5:22 p.m. near Nitta Yuma in Sharkey County with this storm. The tornado warning that was on it for Yazoo County was just allowed to expire but a severe thunderstorm warning remains in effect. It is passing well north of the City of Jackson as it continues east northeast.

Another possible tornado was south of Greenwood MS earlier, but that more northern storm has weakened. It is operating in an area where instabilities are lower.

A tornado watch is in effect for Central Mississippi.

Instabilities feeding into the southern storm are on the order of 1,000-1,500 j/kg, which should keep them intense for the next few hours.

Hopefully, instabilities will continue to be low and even drop ahead of the storms over Mississippi and into Alabama as we head deeper into the evening and away from the heating of the day. The SPC just said that in a new Mesoscale Discussion.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0526
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0652 PM CDT THU APR 18 2013

AREAS AFFECTED…NRN/CNTRL MS

CONCERNING…TORNADO WATCH 126…128…

VALID 182352Z – 190115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 126…128…CONTINUES.

SUMMARY…DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO THREAT ALONG THE REMNANT PORTION OF
QLCS APPEARS TO HAVE PEAKED AND SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
ISOLATED/MARGINAL THROUGH THE EVENING.

DISCUSSION…MID-LEVEL REFLECTIVITY CORES HAVE WEAKENED
SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE PAST HALF HOUR WHILE BASE REFLECTIVITY
STRUCTURES HAVE BECOME MORE ELONGATED WITHIN THE REMNANT QLCS. THESE
DIMINISHING TRENDS ARE PROBABLY A RESULT OF THE LINE CROSSING THE
INSTABILITY AXIS THAT HAD BEEN ALONG THE MS RIVER.
NEVERTHELESS…THE 00Z JAN RAOB SAMPLED A LARGE CURVING HODOGRAPH
WHICH STILL PROVIDES CONCERN FOR AT LEAST SOME SEVERE THREAT
PERSISTING…PERHAPS JUST SPATIALLY CONFINED TO THE FAR SRN PORTION
OF THE QLCS WHERE INFLOW OF WEAK BUOYANCY IS GREATEST.

Wind shear profiles are sufficient for severe weather across Mississippi into Alabama, however, so we will be tracking the storms as they approach Central Alabama.

The line of storms is pushing east at 25 mph. Extrapolating at this speed of motion, it will be approaching the western Alabama border between Sumter and Lamar Counties in 3-4 hours.

As a strong cold front marches east, showers and thunderstorms continue to develop and move with it. A strong line of showers and some severe thunderstorms are pushing east this evening. Much of Central Mississippi remains under a tornado watch until 11 PM. There are a few severe thunderstorm and tornado warning with this line. We expect severe weather watches to be issued eastward as the storm system continues its movement.

RISK AREA: Much of Alabama remains in a slight risk for severe weather until 7 AM. The risk runs along a line from near Scottsboro in Jackson County, to Gadsden, Pell City, Clanton, Selma, Monroeville and Citronelle in northern Mobile County. All of Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Cullman, Fayette, Hamilton and Demoplis are in this risk.

FORCING: The surface low with this system has remained in Iowa, Illinois and the Great Lakes today. For a classic severe weather event, the surface low would need to be farther south over Arkansas, southern Missouri or northern Mississippi. That helps add dynamics and increase winds shear across Alabama. For this event, that is not the case. The main lifting mechanism is the front itself. It is doing a great job at allowing thunderstorms to develop, but it is lacking some other key severe weather parameters that are needed.

INSTABILITY: Many areas warmed into the 80s today and dew points have remained in the lower 60s. The low level jet could increase over the region this evening, but daytime heating will be lost.  CAPE values for Central Alabama look to remain around 500 J/KG, with maybe some slightly higher values over northwest Alabama. This will help provide enough energy for thunderstorm development tonight.

TIMING: This has remained constant through the day. Storms should be approaching the western boarder of Alabama just before midnight. For the Birmingham metro, it looks as though 3-4 AM will be the time that things could get a little rough. By sunrise the line should be approaching our eastern boarder. The thunderstorm timing will be slower the farther south and east you go. Storms could still be ongoing through late morning tomorrow down towards Troy and Phenix City.

THREATS: It would appear that a strong squall line will be crossing the state. With most squall lines, damaging straight line winds will be the main concern. With the main forcing of the system so far to the north, it is hard to get strongly rotating thunderstorm. However, tornadoes will still be a threat, especially in any bowing segment along the line. These are very hard to detect a lot of times because that are rain wrapped and many times in the intense radar returns.

BE SAFE: Since the worst of the activity will be impacting the state during the overnight hours, it is essential that you have a way to receive severe weather alerts. You cannot rely on outdoor weather sirens. Make sure you have multiple sources for severe weather notifications that will wake you up when you are being threatened.

**No afternoon Weather Xtreme video today… I am in Pell City, where we are programming NOAA Weather radio receivers at the Publix through 6:30 p.m. If you need help, come see us**

QUIET FOR NOW: Nothing on the radar across Alabama this afternoon… we have a mix of sun and clouds with temperatures in the 80s.

TO THE WEST: A tornado watch is up for much of Central Mississippi until 11:00 p.m. CT…

THE ALABAMA SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: We have made a few adjustments, but the overall idea is the same for tonight and early tomorrow…

*Storms should enter Northwest Alabama late tonight, as early as 11:00 p.m. The primary severe weather threat for Alabama will come from midnight until 6:00 a.m. Storms should weaken below severe limits toward daybreak as they move into East Alabama.

Below is the HRRR model output valid at 1:00 a.m…

*SPC has removed the “moderate risk”… we now have the standard “slight risk” of severe weather for that part of Alabama west of a line from Scottsboro to Montgomery to Chatom. Anniston and Gadsden are not in the risk… but most of Central and West Alabama are in it.

*The highest risk of a tornado will come over Northwest Alabama… counties like Lauderdale, Colbert, Marion, Lamar, Lawrence, Franklin and Winston. The primary threat will come from damaging straight line winds along the squall line, but understand a few isolated tornadoes are possible as far east as I-65 during the pre-dawn hours. The severe weather risk for East Alabama is much lower.

As always, the greatest risk of a tornado will come from discrete cells ahead of the main squall line, but a spin-up tornado is possible within the line itself.

*We note the HRRR is a little more aggressive with the instability (surface based CAPE) late tonight ahead of the storms… CAPE values are over 1,000 j/kg

This will provide an environment supportive of strong to severe storms, despite the late night/early morning time frame.

*Rain amounts of 1/2 to 1 inch can be expected… major flooding issues are not expected.

*Please have a good, properly programmed NOAA Weather Radio in your home late tonight so you won’t miss any warnings… NEVER rely on an outdoor warning siren to let you know a tornado is coming. That is extremely dangerous. A good smart phone app like MyWarn or iMap WeatherRadio is a great source of warnings on the go.

*The rain will end from west to east tomorrow morning, and most all of the rain should be out of Alabama by late morning. Tomorrow will be cooler with a high in the 60s.

FROST ALERT FOR EARLY SATURDAY: Models are trending colder, and I think they are correct. It now looks like most places across North/Central Alabama are headed for the mid to upper 30s at daybreak Saturday, and some scattered, light frost is possible, especially in valleys and protected areas. Growers need to be aware of that…

The rest of the weekend will be delightful… lots of sunshine Saturday with a high in the upper 60s. More sunshine Sunday with a high in the low 70s.

NEXT WEEK: Still looks like the next organized round of showers and storms will come on Wednesday… too early to determine if there will be a severe weather issue.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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We will have the blog updated often tonight and early tomorrow as this severe weather event unfolds… stay tuned…

Latest discussion has the chance for tornadoes and severe weather increasing to our west in northern Mississippi. Dewpoints are higher than expected and abundant daytime heating is leading to destabilization of the atmosphere across the area. Instabilities and shear are making conditions favorable for tornadoes.  The watch include the cities of Jackson, Starkville, Greenville and Monroe.

The SPC maintains much of Central Alabama in a slight risk for severe weather today. Moderate risk still extends into our northwestern counties. A favorable environment is developing across the Lower Mississippi River Valley for some tornadoes to develop; some of these tornadoes could be strong.

A strong cold front continues to push east today. This front is interacting with a very warm and moist air mass. The uplift provided by the front continues to allow thunderstorms to develop. Severe thunderstorms have been and will continue to develop today.To our north and west, numerous tornado watches remain in effect from the Great Lakes down into Southern Arkansas. We anticipate additional watches to be  issued east through this afternoon and into tonight.

Currently, there are just a hand full of severe weather warnings along the line, but we can expect that to change through the afternoon as daytime heating will lead to greater instability out ahead of the front. Additional thunderstorms will develop with this storm system. Radar shows the heaviest activity to the west of Detroit, down through Indianapolis, Cape Girardeau , Little Rock and now east of Shreveport.

The timing for Alabama has remained consistent through the morning. The line will continue to move east and looks to be entering Northwest Alabama between 10-11 PM this evening. It should begin to impact the Birmingham metro by 3-4AM and should continue its eastward movement through the morning hours. It looks as though will we see a squall line with the main threat being damaging winds and the chance for some tornadoes.

The newest model runs will be out shortly and we are waiting to see what additional data they will provide us to our threats and timing. Once we have that, we will have a more detailed discussion of what we expect overnight.

Since the worst of the severe weather will impact Central Alabama during the overnight hour, make sure you have ways to receive severe weather alerts. Do NOT rely on outdoor sirens.

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

THE STORMS OF APRIL: This is the core of the tornado season, so having a severe weather threat is not unusual in Alabama this time of the year. And, we will deal with another risk of severe storms late tonight and into tomorrow morning.

During the day, our weather should be warm and generally dry with a high between 82 and 85 degrees along with a mix of sun and clouds. But, to the west, big storms will flare up over parts of Mississippi, Arkansas, and West Tennessee later in the day.

THE ALABAMA SEVERE WEATHER RISK: Here are the details of the threat…

*SPC has introduced a “moderate risk” of severe weather for the northwest corner of Alabama for late tonight (after midnight), with a “slight risk” as far east as Scottsboro, Montgomery, and Chathom. Muscle Shoals/Florence and Hamilton are in the moderate risk, while places like Tuscaloosa, Cullman, Birmingham, and Greensboro are in the slight risk.

*The core risk of severe weather in Alabama will come from midnight tonight through 6:00 a.m. tomorrow. While the rain could linger into the late morning hours over Central and East Alabama, the storms should be under severe limits to the south and east of Birmingham. The severe weather risk is low for places like Anniston and Gadsden.

*All modes of severe weather are possible over Northwest Alabama (the moderate risk area)… including the threat of damaging straight line winds, hail, and a few isolated tornadoes. As the storms move eastward, the primary risk becomes straight line winds over North-Central and West-Central Alabama (the slight risk area), although an isolated tornado can’t be totally ruled out.

*Rain amounts of about one inch are likely as the storms move through, but the threat of flash flooding is generally low.

*Since this is a “middle of the night” event, it is very important for all Alabamians to have a NOAA Weather Radio so you won’t miss any warnings while your family is sleeping. You will not hear an outdoor warning siren in your home.

*The rain will be ending from west to east tomorrow morning. Models don’t agree well on the specific timing, but I do believe most all of the rain will be out of Alabama by early afternoon. We do note the NAM is slower… take some time to see the Weather Xtreme video for all of the maps, graphics, and details.

Tomorrow will be cooler with a high in the 60s.

SUNNY WEEKEND: Expect sunshine back in full supply Saturday and Sunday. We should point out the NAM model is now printing a low of 37 degrees early Saturday… meaning there could be a touch of light frost across the coldest pockets of North Alabama. The high Saturday will be in the 67-70 degree range, followed by low to mid 70s Sunday. The humidity over the weekend will be low.

NEXT WEEK: The next organized round of rain and storms should arrive late Tuesday night into Wednesday.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Twitter
Google Plus

We will be at the Publix in Pell City today from 3:30 until 6:30 p.m. programming NOAA Weather Radio receivers… if you need help come see us. I will have updated forecast notes posted here by 4:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day…

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

CALHOUN/CHEROKEE COUNTY FLOODING: While most of Alabama is warm and rain-free this afternoon, very isolated, nearly stationary storms developed over Calhoun and Cherokee Counties this afternoon producing torrential rain and serious flash flooding. Radar data suggests 3 to 5 inches of rain fell near Oxford; many roads were impassable due to high water, and water rescues had to be conducted by local fire units. Flash flood warnings have been issued for these two counties.

Other storms have formed around Walker County.

The isolated showers and storms will taper off this evening.

TO THE WEST: Tornado watches cover much of North Texas, Oklahoma, SE Kansas, and parts of Missouri as a major storm system approaches. A few significant tornadoes are possible in this region through tonight, and SPC maintains a “moderate risk” of severe weather.

TOMORROW: Here in Alabama, the day should be mostly dry and warm with a mix of sun and clouds along with a high in the low 80s. Any storms tomorrow afternoon should be few and far between. West of Alabama, there is now a “moderate risk” of severe weather from Vicksburg, MS to Grand Rapids, MI.

OUR SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: A long line of severe storms should enter Northwest Alabama just after midnight tomorrow night. The primary threat will come from strong, possibly damaging straight line winds, but an isolated tornado is possible within the line with decent low level bulk shear numbers. Thankfully instability values are very marginal, which should limit the severe weather threat to some degree.

The greatest risk of severe weather will come early Friday for areas from Birmingham north and west… storms should weaken as they move into East Alabama. The highest severe weather threat will be over Northwest Alabama.

The primary window for severe weather is from 2:00 until 11:00 a.m. Friday. The storms should be in the Birmingham metro area in the 6-8 a.m. time frame… and they should be out of the state by late morning. Please see the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and details.

Friday will be cooler with a high in the upper 60s.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Lots of sunshine Saturday and Sunday; the high Saturday will be in the 67-70 degree range, followed by low to mid 70s. The coolest morning will come early Saturday, when low 40s are likely. Colder pockets across North Alabama could reach the upper 30s at daybreak Saturday.

NEXT WEEK: The new GFS still shows the next organized round of showers and storms arriving in Alabama Wednesday; again see the Weather Xtreme video for the details.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Twitter
Google Plus

I had a great time today seeing the students at Kitty Stone Elementary in Jacksonville, and Snow Rogers Elementary in Gardendale… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 and 6:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR…
SOUTHWESTERN CHEROKEE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ALABAMA…

* UNTIL 730 PM CDT

* AT 423 PM CDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS CHEROKEE COUNTY.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE…
CENTRE…CENTRE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT…BALL FLAT…LEESBURG…
SLACKLAND AND TENNALA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR…
SOUTHEASTERN CHEROKEE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ALABAMA…

* UNTIL 630 PM CDT

* AT 330 PM CDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. 1 TO
2 INCHES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN AND ANOTHER 1 TO 2 IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT HOUR.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE…
FORNEY…MOSHAT AND PLEASANT GAP.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION. RAINFALL FROM PERSISTENT RAINBANDS
WILL PRODUCE FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND ALONG STREETS. MANY
ROADS WILL BE CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER AND DRIVING IS NOT RECOMMENDED
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS…COUNTRY ROADS…AS WELL AS FARMLAND ALONG THE
BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

Thunderstorm over Cherokee County has continued to intensified this afternoon and has reached severe limits. Severe hail and damaging winds could be occurring with this storm over the southern part of the county. U.S. 278 and 411 are being impacted by this storm as well as the communities of Rock Run, Pine Grove and Spring Garden.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
SOUTHEASTERN CHEROKEE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ALABAMA…

* UNTIL 415 PM CDT

* AT 324 PM CDT…THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL…AND DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR PLEASANT
GAP…OR 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF PIEDMONT…AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5
MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
FORNEY AND PLEASANT GAP.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

FOR YOUR PROTECTION…MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF
YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS.

Significant flash flooding is being reported across Anniston and Oxford. Numerous cars have been stranded in high water. Many water rescues are underway in the affected areas.

An isolated thunderstorm has developed of southern Calhoun County this afternoon. The storm is nearly stationary and is dropping heavy rain onto the same area. Numerous flooded roads being reported in Anniston and Oxford. Interstate 20 and Highway 431 are being impacted. Radar estimates on rainfall are over 3 inches.

Cars are being reported under water and many streets have become impassible. Turn Around, Don’t Drown

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR…
SOUTH CENTRAL CALHOUN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA…

* UNTIL 600 PM CDT

* AT 303 PM CDT…THE PUBLIC REPORTED SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL CALHOUN COUNTY.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE…
ANNISTON…COBB TOWN…OXFORD…SAKS…WEST END-COBB TOWN…BLUE
MOUNTAIN…HOBSON CITY AND OXFORD LAKE.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING STREAMS AND DRAINAGES…
CANE CREEK…SOUTH BRANCH CANE CREEK…CHOCCOLOCCO CREEK AND HILLABEE
CREEK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS…URBAN AREAS…HIGHWAYS…STREETS AND UNDERPASSES
AS WELL AS OTHER DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

A few very isolated thunderstorms have developed over East Alabama this afternoon. One is over Cherokee County just to the southeast of Centre. The other is located in southern Calhoun and extreme northeastern Talladega Counties. The cities of Oxford and Anniston are being impacted by this storm as well as Interstate 20 and U.S. Highway 431. Neither of these storms are currently severe, but are producing some small hail and gusty winds. The main concern is the potential for flash flooding. The storms are moving very much and are dropping very heavy rainfall.

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

MUGGY DAYS: The Alabama weather situation won’t change much today and tomorrow… the weather will feel more like June with highs in the low to mid 80s along with high humidity levels. The sun will be out at times, and we might see a “pop-up” afternoon shower or storm in a few spots, but they should be pretty isolated.

All of the serious weather actions remains west of Alabama; SPC maintains a “moderate risk” of severe weather later today and tonight from near Childress, Texas to Wichita, Kansas. Some of the cities in the moderate risk include Oklahoma City and Tulsa, and a few significant tornadoes are possible in this region. The highest tornado probabilities are near Wichita Falls and Childress, Texas. A “slight risk” of severe storms extends from the Texas Hill Country to Chicago.

SEVERE STORMS MOVE EASTWARD: Tomorrow, SPC has defined a “slight risk” of severe weather from near Houston to Detroit, and that Day 2 slight risk extends into Northwest Alabama. Keep in mind the Day 2 risk time frame extends through 7:00 a.m. CT Friday, and these storms should enter the northwest counties of our state after midnight tomorrow night.

The higher severe weather probabilities tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night cover places like Shreveport, Jackson, Little Rock, and Memphis. A few tornadoes are possible in this zone.

HERE IN ALABAMA: The line of severe storms should enter Northwest Alabama around 2:00 a.m. Friday. Thankfully, instability values are marginal, but wind fields are pretty strong, and there is a decent amount of bulk shear in the lower 5,000 feet as well. The primary risk along the line will come from strong straight line winds, but an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out.

The storms should weaken as they move east, and we believe the greatest risk of severe weather along the storm line will be north and west of a line from Tuscaloosa to Smith Lake to Huntsville from 2:00 a.m. until 5:00 a.m. Friday.

The weakening band of storms should reach the Birmingham metro around 5:00-6:00 a.m… and then over into the Anniston/Gadsden area by 7:00-8:00 a.m. The risk of severe weather along the squall line is quite low to the south and east of Birmingham as the storms continue to weaken.

The rain will end across the state from west to east early Friday morning, and all of the rain should be out of the state by mid-morning. Friday will be cooler with a high in the 67-70 degree range.

DELIGHTFUL WEEKEND: Doesn’t get much better. Sunny mild days, clear cool nights, and low humidity. We will be down in the low 40s early Saturday, and some of the colder pockets across North Alabama could visit the upper 30s. The high Saturday will be around 70, with low to mid 70s Sunday.

NEXT WEEK: The 00Z GFS hints our next chance of organized showers and storms will come around Wednesday of next week; see the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and details.

WEATHER RADIO HELP: We will be at the Publix in Pell City tomorrow from 3:30 until 6:30 p.m…. if you need your weather program programmed, or have questions, some see us.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus

I have weather programs today at Kitty Stone Elementary School in Jacksonville, and Snow Rogers Elementary in North Jefferson County. Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!