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Storms Approaching Northwest Alabama

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Fri, 06/19/2015 - 14:29

The surface low that is the remnant of Tropical Storm Bill is still very well defined this afternoon over southern Missouri, approaching Cape Girardeau. There are distinct “feeder bands” or spokes of vorticity rotating around the system. One thin line of storms is approaching Northwest Alabama at this hour.

The convection will be into Northwest Alabama in about 90 minutes to 2 hours. The mesoscale models have been predicting that this convection will die out as it approaches the state, but I have a feeling that it will hold together as it continues to plow through moderately unstable air given the fairly strong forcing from the low.

Additional convection develop and/or move into Alabama later this evening and Saturday morning.

Winds have been gusty to the east and southeast of the low center over Arkansas, western Tennessee and northwestern Mississippi Winds gusted to 34 mph at Germantown TN near Memphis at 1:30 p.m. and have been consistently gusting above 25 mph in this area. Winds will start to pick up a little this evening over North Alabama, averaging over 10 mph through the overnight hours.

Categories: Weather

Sharing the ‘Good News’ From Alabama NewsCenter

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Fri, 06/19/2015 - 13:04

Our partners at Alabama NewsCenter launched a new website a few days ago with the aim of providing a statewide site for good news about our state, with an emphasis on business, economic development, communities, people and innovation.

The Alabama NewsCenter site also serves as an outlet for Alabama Power news, so you can stay on top of everything from outages to energy-saving tips as the weather changes.  Alabama NewsCenter also carries our forecasts twice a day.

Each week, Alabama NewsCenter will share some of its stories with AlabamaWX.  Because this is the first time, we thought you might want a sample of some of the highlights from Alabama NewsCenter since they launched:

A series on the hurricanes that have threatened Alabama in the past: (http://alabamanewscenter.com/category/weather-center/)

Gov. Bentley talks taxes, incentives and other issues affecting our state (http://alabamanewscenter.com/2015/05/27/gov-bentley-talks-taxes-incentives-and-other-issues-affecting-our-state/)

Adjusting to life after three decades on Death Row (http://alabamanewscenter.com/2015/06/11/adjusting-to-life-after-three-decades-on-death-row/)

Bryan Stevenson: carrying a mantle for justice and purpose (http://alabamanewscenter.com/2015/06/10/bryan-stevenson-carrying-a-mantle-for-justice-and-purpose/)

The power of power: Deontay Wilder’s story (http://alabamanewscenter.com/2015/05/28/the-power-of-power/)

Meet the Alabama-born star of the “Jurassic World” movie (http://alabamanewscenter.com/2015/05/18/alabama-vehicles-make-pre-history/)

Barber Motorsports Park puts Birmingham on global racing map (http://alabamanewscenter.com/2015/05/27/barber-motorports-park-puts-birmingham-on-global-racing-map/)

Hint of Hank Williams on Lake Martin (http://alabamanewscenter.com/2015/05/29/hint-of-hank-williams-on-lake-martin/)

Hospitals invest to ensure reliable power (http://alabamanewscenter.com/2015/06/03/hospitals-invest-to-ensure-reliable-power/)

Alabama Bright Lights: Sister Schubert’s Homemade Rolls (http://alabamanewscenter.com/2015/06/12/sister-schuberts-homemade-rolls/)

Competing for Miss Alabama: A first-person account (http://alabamanewscenter.com/2015/06/16/miss-alabama-a-reflection/)

Categories: Weather

Slightly Less Heat

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Fri, 06/19/2015 - 06:32

The upper ridge weakened some yesterday resulting in a slight drop in our afternoon highs, but only a slight drop amounting to 2 or 3 degrees. But glad to have any amount shaved off those highs. As the remnants of Bill continue to trek slowly across the Ohio River Valley today and tonight and into Saturday, we’ll see a continued weakening of the upper ridge with an increase in clouds and scattered showers especially across North Alabama north of the Interstate 20 corridor. But it will still be warm with highs into the lower 90s.

For those headed to the beach, highs will be in the upper 80s, while just inland 90s will be the rule. Showers and storms will be possible as the sea breeze moves inland each day but still plenty of sunshine. Rain chances along the immediate coast are less than 20 percent. Water temperature yesterday afternoon at Perdido Pass in Orange Beach was 86 degrees.

As the remnants of Bill move off the Mid-Atlantic States Sunday, a big upper ridge over the Four Corners area of the Southwest US will build rather quickly across the Central Plains and into the Southeast US. This will bring our chances for showers down with only a few isolated showers possible into next week. It will also bring up the heat once again with highs well into the middle and upper 90s. Heat indices could be reaching near 105, so some heat advisories may be needed.

Severe weather is limited to the North Central US over the next couple of days where the westerlies remain active. There is also a marginal risk in the Ohio River Valley along the track of what’s left of Bill. And the tropics remain quiet with no areas of concern for at least the next several days.

While much of next week is likely to be hot, the GFS continues to carve out a fairly substantial trough over the eastern US as we end June and head into July. This pattern would spell a break in the heat, but it would also put us in a northwesterly flow regime where we would need to keep a wary eye on the development of large clusters of thunderstorms off to our northwest that might impact us. But the trend for a cooler pattern continues to be on the board.

The next Weather Xtreme Video will be posted here on Saturday morning. Stay cool and I hope you get to see a shower today or Saturday.

-Brian-

Categories: Weather

Severe Storm Over East Alabama

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Thu, 06/18/2015 - 14:17

Widely scattered strong storms have developed east of I-65 this afternoon. One of those over eastern Chambers County has prompted a severe thunderstorms warning.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
CENTRAL CHAMBERS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA…

* UNTIL 245 PM CDT

* AT 216 PM CDT…A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER DENSON…OR
NEAR LANETT…MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH.

HAZARD…60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE…RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT…HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE
TO ROOFS…SIDING AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
VALLEY…LANETT…LAFAYETTE…STROUD…LA FAYETTE…RED LEVEL…
LAKEVIEW…POST OAK FORKS…WELCH…STANDING ROCK…DENSON…AMITY
PARK…HUGULEY…CHAMBERS COUNTY LAKE…FREDONIA…VEASEY CREEK
PARK…BUFFALO…STROUD CREEK…I 85 WELCOME CENTER AT LANETT AND
ROCKY POINT.

Categories: Weather

Swapping Ridges

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Thu, 06/18/2015 - 06:55

It’s not much, but a slight increase in clouds, moisture, and shower coverage along with the slight lessening of the upper ridge for the next couple of days should result in lowering temperatures a few degrees, but highs will still be in the 90s. A heat advisory was in effect today for the Alabama counties southeast of Montgomery where heat indices will be near 105 degrees. The upper ridge and surface high pressure which have brought Central Alabama the hottest days so far of 2015 will wane as the upper air reflection of the remnants of Bill move across the Middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys Friday and Saturday.

That upper air reflection of Bill moves off the Mid Atlantic States on Sunday as we swap one ridge for another. The upper ridge over the Southwest US will begin building back into the Central Plains and the Southeast US on Sunday and Monday where it will become the predominant feature in our weather pattern for much of next week. This will push high temperatures once again into the middle and upper 90s with the potential for heat indices coming up to the 105 level.

With the upper ridge building into the Southeast US from the west, we will also see a reduction in showers once again as that pattern should support only an isolated thunderstorm here and there and no widespread rain chances.

At the beach, highs will be in the upper 80s, while just inland 90s will be the rule. Showers and storms will be possible as the sea breeze moves inland each day. Rain chances along the immediate coast are very low, less than 20 percent. Water temperature yesterday afternoon at Perdido Pass at Orange Beach was 86 degrees.

Both the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific basins were quiet and expected to remain that way for the next several days.

Looking out into voodoo country, the GFS was again suggesting the development of a substantial trough over the eastern half of the country as we end June and get into July. This feature has come and gone over the last several model runs, so we’ll be hopeful that the trend is right. That pattern would surely bring a nice break in the heat to the eastern half of the country.

The next Weather Xtreme Video will be posted here on Friday morning. We are on a one a day schedule while James Spann is on vacation.

-Brian-

Categories: Weather

You Know It’s a Bad Day When…

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Wed, 06/17/2015 - 20:42

…You are in Oklahoma and you see Val Castor drive up. I looked up leaving dinner tonight in flooded Ardmore OK and there he was.

It is the Sooner State equivalent of Jim Cantore showing up.

Should have asked him to be on WeatherBrains!

He was here for this:

Categories: Weather

Big Rains From Bill

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Wed, 06/17/2015 - 19:47

Tropical Depression Bill marched up I-35 today bringing a large part of the Gulf of Mexico with it and wringing out some impressive rain totals.

Radars estimated that over five inches of rain has fallen across a wide area today from northwest of Fort Worth into southern Oklahoma around Ardmore. And those estimates are considered to be underdone because of the tropical nature of the airmass.

6.93 inches of rain fell at Burneyville OK just north of the Red River through 7 p.m. with rain continuing. Even more impressively, Nocona TX picked up 9.15 inches of rain. Workers had to be rescued from a flooded fracking site there.

Ardmore had picked up 4.22 inches since midnight through 7 p.m. with heavy rain redeveloping. Their 5 day total stood at an amazing 10.16 inches. And over the past 60 days, they have picked up a jaw dropping 34.6 inches of rain, just about their annual average. And to think they were in horrible drought two months ago.

ON THE BACK SIDE: Heavy tropical downpours developed over South Texas in the tropical airmass left behind by Bill. Alice, TX picked up an amazing 7.65 inches of rain in 2 hours and 45 minutes through 7 p.m. A flash flood emergency was declared with water flowing in to homes and numerous water rescues from vehicles trapped on flooded roads.

DANCING WITH THE STATS: San Antonio picked up 2.43 inches of rain in one hour between 6 and 7 p.m. as powerful thunderstorms exploded over the northeast part of Bexar County around 5pm. They quickly reached and shot through the equilibrium level of 50,000 feet. By 7 p.m., the daily total stood at 2.64 inches, which established a new record for the date. Numerous roads were underwater in San Antonio.

Categories: Weather

A Great Day To Be Bill

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Wed, 06/17/2015 - 14:59

One of my favorite weather days is when I get to experience a dying tropical system well inland. It goes back to September 1971, when the remnants of Hurricane Edith tracked right across Central Alabama as a tropical depression after making landfall over southwestern Louisiana. It meant a day playing hookie for a fourth grader from McElwain Elementary, who was enamored with weather.

I have watched systems like 1979’s Hurricane Frederic, 1985’s Danny, 1995’s Opal and 2004’s Ivan as they dealt us fits across Central Alabama. But storms like Edith, Barry in 2001, Fay in 2008 and Lee in 2011 just led to gray, windy, rainy days.

My namesake tropical storms have been fairly tame. 2003’s Bill brought lots of rain to Alabama, especially southern sections. Little did I know that the 2015 iteration of my namesake would come right to me. But not in Alabama. Business serendipitously carried me to southern Oklahoma this week, ending up at the National Weather Association Mid Year Council Meeting in Norman Friday and Saturday.

Of course, I had been tracking the prospects of something developing over the Gulf for nearly ten days. As fate would have it, the eventual storm made landfall on the Central Texas Coast yesterday and turned northward. The extensive shield of rain arrived here in Ardmore this morning. Winds have been averaging 10-20 mph with gusts as high as 26 mph over the past three hours. The center is near Fort Worth this afternoon and is expected to move right up I-35, perhaps passing directly over us later.

All day long, I have heard people talking about Bill. “Bill is going to give us a soaking,” someone said at breakfast. “Have you heard the latest on Bill,” was overheard in the lobby of the hotel. The commentators on The Weather Channel playing in the fitness center said they were “tracking Bill”.

Instead of driving this morning, I walked across the street to my appointment in order to enjoy the weather, letting the rain pelt my raincoat and blow my trusty umbrella. I braved the wind and rain in my rental car to grab a Braum’s hamburger for lunch, driving through the flooded right lane and running the windshield wipers on high. When I ordered, the restaurant team member mentioned that she had “had about enough of Bill”.

I just smiled. It is a great day to be Bill, especially if you are in Oklahoma.

Categories: Weather

Heat Staying Up

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Wed, 06/17/2015 - 06:45

Our weather pattern for Central Alabama remains stuck on the large surface and upper ridge that remain in place over the Southeast US giving us some of the hottest days so far for 2015. Heat advisories have also been posted for parts of Southeast Alabama as well as parts of South Georgia and North Florida. Look for highs to again be in the middle 90s with showers remaining scarce.

The remnants of Tropical Storm Bill are moving generally northward across North Central Texas this morning. The remnants of Bill will continue to produce heavy rainfall for parts of the Central Plains and the Ohio River Valley over the next several days with much of that area covered by flash flood watches. While the upper reflection of Bill will move by North Alabama on Saturday, we are not likely to see much of an impact on our weather with perhaps a few more clouds taking a couple of degrees off the highs and slightly better rain chances especially north of Interstate 20.

With Bill moving further inland, high surf has diminished along the beaches of Alabama and Northwest Florida, reducing the rip current threat too. Fairly typical June weather will prevail this week, with temps at the beach in the mid to upper 80s and lows in the mid-70s, and expect mid-90s just inland. Showers and storms will form right along the immediate coast during the late morning and move inland with the sea breeze. Rain chances along the immediate coast will very low, less than 20 percent. Water temperature yesterday afternoon at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab was 84 degrees.

The upper level feature that once was Bill will move out of the picture Sunday as it is replaced by a strong upper ridge building into the Lower Mississippi Valley from the southwest. This should bring the temperatures back up into the middle and upper 90s for start of next week with only small chances for an isolated shower or two.

Conditions across the Tropical Atlantic are quiet after Bills departure from the Northwest Gulf. Carlos continues to dissipate on the west coast of Mexico.

Looking out into Week 2 or voodoo country, the GFS is not as bullish this morning on the development of the trough over the eastern US, so does not look as hopeful for a big break in the heat.

I expect to post the next Weather Xtreme Video here on Thursday morning. Stay cool and Godspeed.

-Brian-

Categories: Weather

3 Looks at a Landfalling Bill

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Tue, 06/16/2015 - 08:51

Bill is making landfall on the Texas coast this morning as a strong tropical storm just south of Port OConnor.

Here is three looks at the storm this morning.  The large panel is the composite radar.  The top left is a visible satellite image and the lower left is an enhanced infrared satellite image.

Top winds on the last advisory had strengthened to 60 mph and the Air Force plane just found a maximum sustained wind of 63.3 mph as measured by the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer on board the aircraft.

So, Bill will be just below hurricane strength it appears at landfall.

The main threat is heavy rain and a high flood risk across eastern Texas up into eastern Oklahoma.  The heavy rains will continue  on into the Midwest and even the Northeast.   Inland flooding is the second biggest killer in tropical cyclones.

Categories: Weather

Heat Continues with Few Showers

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Tue, 06/16/2015 - 06:57

*** No Weather Xtreme Video Today due to work schedule ***

The surface and upper ridge over the Southeast US will continue the heat across Central Alabama today and Wednesday with highs climbing into the mid 90s with heat indices reaching about 100 degrees due to the high humidity. These are not dangerous levels, but everyone should be aware of the heat and use common sense to avoid any het-related problems.

Meanwhile, Texas is feeling the effect of Tropical Storm Bill which should move ashore this morning between Galveston and Corpus Christi. As we’ve been showing for the last several days, a wide swath of 6 to 9 inches of rain can be expected along the track of Bill and its remnants as it moves across Texas and recurves into the Ohio Valley over the next couple of days.

As the center of Tropical Storm Bill moves inland today, high surf will gradually diminish along the beaches of Alabama and Northwest Florida. The high rip current threat will also diminish after today. Fairly typical June weather will prevail this week, with beachside highs in the upper 80s and lows in the middle 70s. Showers and storms will form right along the immediate coast during the late morning and move inland with the seabreeze. Rain chances along the immediate coast will very low, less than 20%. Water temperatures are warming into the upper 80s now.

Shower chances remain low for the next couple of days with the upper ridge and surface high over us as they steer Bill across the Central US and into the Ohio Valley. Shower chances are expected to come up somewhat by Thursday and Friday which should help to moderate the heat just a little by bringing highs into the lower 90s.

Some model differences on the exact position of the upper ridge that is forecast to develop over the Southwest US and build our way. The latest GFS model run suggests that the ridge will build strongly into the Southeast US, so we can expect the heat to stay up if this happens. But looking out into voodoo country, the GFS also promises a rather strong trough at the very end of June for the eastern US which could spell a nice break in the heat.

-Brian-

Categories: Weather

WeatherBrains 490: Zee from the Big Apple

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Tue, 06/16/2015 - 05:15

WeatherBrains Episode 490 is now online (June 15, 2015). If you are crazy about weather, this is THE netcast audio program for you!

Tonight’s Guest WeatherBrain is the Chief Meteorologist at ABC’s Good Morning America. She is a former intern for James and a former student of Dr. John Knox. Ginger Zee, welcome to WeatherBrains.

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

  • Extremes: 121 at Death Valley, CA, and 31 at Stanley, ID, Old Faithful YNP, WY, Boca Reservoir, CA, and Bodie State Park, CA
  • Tropical disturbance in western Gulf struggling
  • Recorded on Friday, June 12th
  • and more!
  • Our email bag officer was unable to make this show.

    From The Weather Center:

    WeatherBrains 101: The professor and 101 is AWOL this week.

    Listener Surveys: Okay, we continue to drive this topic into the ground, but we really do like to hear from you. Many thanks to everyone who has taken the time to fill out the Listener Survey. The survey takes just a minute or two to complete and provides us with an opportunity to learn where you are and hear your thoughts and comments on the show. Click here to take the survey.

    Web Sites from Episode 490:

    To subscribe to the brand new SkyWritings, an email newsletter from the WeatherBrains gang, click HERE.

    Ginger Zee full bio

    Picks of the Week:

    Bill Murray –

    James Spann – AMS 2015 Conference tweets

    The WeatherBrains crew includes your host, James Spann, plus other notable geeks like Nate Johnson, Bill Murray, Aubrey Urbanowicz, Dr. John Scala, Rick Smith, Kevin Selle, and Brian Peters. They bring together a wealth of weather knowledge and experience for another fascinating netcast about weather.

    Categories: Weather

    WeatherBrains 490: Zee from the Big Apple

    WeatherBrains - Tue, 06/16/2015 - 04:45

    WeatherBrains Episode 490 is now online (June 15, 2015). If you are crazy about weather, this is THE netcast audio program for you!

    Tonight’s Guest WeatherBrain is the Chief Meteorologist at ABC’s Good Morning America. She is a former intern for James and a former student of Dr. John Knox. Ginger Zee, welcome to WeatherBrains.

    Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

  • Extremes: 121 at Death Valley, CA, and 31 at Stanley, ID, Old Faithful YNP, WY, Boca Reservoir, CA, and Bodie State Park, CA
  • Tropical disturbance in western Gulf struggling
  • Recorded on Friday, June 12th
  • and more!
  • Our email bag officer was unable to make this show.

    From The Weather Center:

    WeatherBrains 101: The professor and 101 is AWOL this week.

    Listener Surveys: Okay, we continue to drive this topic into the ground, but we really do like to hear from you. Many thanks to everyone who has taken the time to fill out the Listener Survey. The survey takes just a minute or two to complete and provides us with an opportunity to learn where you are and hear your thoughts and comments on the show. Click here to take the survey.

    Web Sites from Episode 490:

    To subscribe to the brand new SkyWritings, an email newsletter from the WeatherBrains gang, click HERE.

    Ginger Zee full bio

    Picks of the Week:

    Bill Murray –

    James Spann – AMS 2015 Conference tweets

    The WeatherBrains crew includes your host, James Spann, plus other notable geeks like Nate Johnson, Bill Murray, Aubrey Urbanowicz, Dr. John Scala, Rick Smith, Kevin Selle, and Brian Peters. They bring together a wealth of weather knowledge and experience for another fascinating netcast about weather.

    Categories: Weather

    It’s Official! It’s a Bill!

    ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Mon, 06/15/2015 - 21:29

    Here is the information from the first advisory on Tropical Storm Bill.

    SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT…INFORMATION
    ———————————————–
    LOCATION…27.1N 94.2W
    ABOUT 160 MI…260 KM ESE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
    ABOUT 155 MI…250 KM SSE OF GALVESTON TEXAS
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1005 MB…29.68 INCHES

    Here is the official track forecast, which shows that the center of the remnants of Bill won’t make it past Austin until early Wednesday morning. Heavy rainfalls of 4-8 inches will affect eastern Texas up into eastern Oklahoma.

    The accumulated wind swath is overlaid on the track path. The light blue shows the expected area of tropical storm force winds. The yellow indicates strong tropical storm force winds greater than or equal to 58 mph. There will be coastal flooding along the upper Texas coast over to Central Louisiana.

    Bill will make landfall on the Texas Coast near Matagorda Bay early tomorrow morning, moving into the inland Texas Coast by late morning.

    We will have to watch for rip currents all along the Gulf Coast. Two young boys died off North Padre Island this afternoon after they were caught in a rip current.

    Categories: Weather

    Bill-To-Be: 50 kt Flight Level Winds

    ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Mon, 06/15/2015 - 20:31

    LATE REPORT 8:45 PM
    Although the NHC has not officially announced it yet, they have flipped the designation from Invest 91L to AL02 indicating that it’s a boy! We should have advisories on Bill shortly.

    ORIGINAL POST
    From the 7 p.m. CDT Tropical Weather Outlook from the NHC:

    Surface observations and preliminary data from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft currently investigating the area of low pressure located about 200 miles southeast of the middle Texas coast indicate that the center has become better defined since earlier today. If these trends continue, advisories will be initiated later this evening on Tropical Storm Bill.

    In fact, the Air Force reconnaissance plane investigating Invest 91L has found 50+ knot flight level winds in the southeastern semicircle about 30 miles east of what appears to be a nearly calm center. This would translate into about a 45 knot tropical cyclone, or about 50 mph.

    Here is the latest recon data showing the approximate center with a B and highlights the 50 knot flight level winds in a yellow circle.

    The system certainly is not well organized, with a broad center, but this may be enough organization for the NHC to go ahead and designate the system as Tropical Storm Bill shortly.

    The center is somewhere near 27.0N and 94.2W. This is 160 miles southeast of Port Lavaca TX. The system should be onshore by 7 a.m. somewhere near Matagorda Bay, which is between Houston and Corpus Christi TX.

    Categories: Weather

    Bill-To-Be: Gulf System Could Be Upgraded Soon

    ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Mon, 06/15/2015 - 15:32

    Imvest 91L over the Central Gulf of Mexico has not been designated a tropical depression or tropical storm yet because the circulation is not considered to be tight enough yet. But tropical storm force winds are being measured well to the northeast of the center.

    The system appears to be becoming better organized with convection increasing near the center.  The environment is becoming more favorable for intensification with difference aloft helping to enhance rising vertical motion.

    This is an area not unfamiliar with rapidly strengthening storms (think Humberto in 2007 and Audrey in 1957.

    I think the system will be designated a tropical depression soon and a tropical storm later this evening.  The NHC says they will wait for the recon infonfrom this evening’s flight before making an upgrade decision.

    The system is expected to make landfall on the middle Texas coast Tuesday morning around Port Lavaca. This will bring more heavy rains to Houston and well up into Texas including Dallas.  Showers and storms are already massing off the coast of Southeast Texas and Southwest Louisiana.
    Flash flood watches are already posted for North Texas and Oklahoma through Thursday because of the expected heavy rains.

    Coastal flood warnings are already in affect along the coast of western and Central Louisiana. 

    In the Houston area, there is already a voluntary evacuation of the Bolivar Peninsula where highway 87 is expected to flood. You remember the impact category two Hurricane Ike had on that area a few years ago.

    Another recon flight is tasked for this evening. We will be watching.

    Categories: Weather

    Hot and Mostly Dry

    ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Mon, 06/15/2015 - 06:36

    Not much change in the overall thinking for our weather in Central Alabama as we continue to watch events develop in the western Gulf of Mexico. Bill is not yet Bill, but could become Bill at almost any time.

    Over the Southeast US, high pressure at the surface and aloft is keeping a clockwise circulation that should steer the developments in the western Gulf into the Central Texas coast on Tuesday and Wednesday. Warm water temperatures suggest we could see development while weak shear continues to wreak havoc on the development of that system. No matter what it is called, it is likely to bring rain to Texas, Oklahoma, and Arkansas and eventually into the Ohio River Valley with amounts of 5 to 8 inches possible along the track of the decaying system.

    Tracking the weak feature in the upper air charts, shows that it should move across the Ohio River Valley at the end of the week as a weak frontal system approaches the Southeast. This is likely to produce an uptick in showers and thunderstorms along with some additional cloudiness which may take a few degrees off our temperatures, but nothing that I would call a big break for the heat as highs are likely to remain in the 90 to 94 range.

    Sunday officially starts the summer season as the sun reaches its farthest point north and the days begin to get shorter.

    By Monday, the upper ridge is beginning to take hold to the west of us as we stay in a moist and warm environment with daily shower chances.

    At the beach, you can expect about 6 to 8 hours of sunshine today along the coast with the usual risk of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Expect increasing amounts of sun and fewer storms much of this week. Highs on the immediate coast will be in the upper 80s, with lower 90s just inland. The sea water temperature at Dauphin Island Sea Lab was 83 degrees yesterday afternoon. Due to the onshore flow, the risk of rip currents is expected to be high for the next several days.

    I’ll be a little late with the Weather Xtreme Video tomorrow morning due to work schedule, but look for a post by mid-morning. Enjoy the day, stay cool, and Godspeed.

    -Brian-

    Categories: Weather

    Bill, Is That You?

    ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Sun, 06/14/2015 - 12:22

    We have been looking toward the upcoming period with interest for ten days to two weeks now as the global models have teased that there might be a tropical system in the western Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico.

    There is good agreement now among all of the members of our various model suites that something will develop near the Yucatan or over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico later today, tonight or Monday and move to near the Central Texas coast by Tuesday.

    There is already a surface low over the northern Yucatan Peninsula and some gales have been reported over the open water of the western Caribbean in the strong thunderstorms. The pressure is the system right now is about 1008 mb, so not very organized.

    Air Force reconnaissance is scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon. The mission had been scheduled to arrive in the area of the system around 2 p.m., but that was pushed back to 5 p.m. The NHC puts the chance that the system will develop into a tropical cyclone at 60 percent.

    EFFECTS ON ALABAMA: The system will have little if any impact on Alabama weather except for a continued high rip current threat along the beautiful beaches of Alabama and Northwest Florida, through Wednesday at least. As the system rounds the subtropical ridge and starts through the Ohio Valley, we will see elevated shower/storm chances again by late Thursday into Friday and Saturday.

    HEAVY RAINS TO THE WEST OF ALABAMA: It appears that areas from the Texas Coast up through eastern Oklahoma, Arkansas, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio and even in western Pennsylvania could pick up over 5 inches of rain in the next seven days. The NWS Weather Prediction Center (the old Hydrometeorological Prediction Center) are calling for a max of 8.6 inches near Fort Smith Arkansas this week. This could produce severe flooding in these areas.

    It will also help alleviate dryness in the Ohio Valley though as we continue on our campaign to stamp out drought in the eastern U.S. New England might even get a little help.

    Categories: Weather

    Temperature Rising

    ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Sun, 06/14/2015 - 07:06

    While there were a few more showers and thunderstorms yesterday than expected, the trend for hotter and drier weather still seems on track as both surface high pressure and an upper ridge work their way into the Southeast US over the next few days. The impact of this will be to push convection off to the west of Alabama and gradually raise temperatures with middle 90s possible into Tuesday and Wednesday.

    In the meantime, we’re also watching the evolution of an area of disturbed weather over the Yucatan Peninsula. This area of storms is expected to move northwestward over the western Gulf of Mexico toward the Texas coast by Tuesday. Tropical storm formation is possible, but wind shear remains fairly strong across the western Gulf. A hurricane hunter aircraft may investigate this area later today. If it does organize some and gets named, it would be Tropical Storm Bill. Carlos was still churning along the west coast of Mexico and could make landfall Tuesday as a hurricane.

    At the beach, you can expect about 4 to 6 hours of sunshine today along the coast with the usual risk of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Expect increasing amounts of sun and fewer storms much of next week. Highs on the immediate coast will be in the mid-80s, with lower 90s just inland. The sea water temperature at Dauphin Island Sea Lab was 83 degrees yesterday afternoon.

    Once the tropical system moves northwestward it is likely to bring some heavy rain to the Texas Gulf Coast. This disturbance will dissipate and open into a weak trough and become caught up in the westerly flow Wednesday and Thursday. It could spell some heavy rain for portions of the Lower Mississippi River Valley. While ridging does maintain itself over the Southeast US coast, we may see an uptick in showers and storms into the latter part of the week with the potential for a weak cold front entering the Southeast US. The front should wash out fairly quickly leaving us with a broad ridge over the southern US and returning us to daily scattered showers and thunderstorms. Additional clouds and the weak front could knock temperatures back to highs around 90 – not much but we’ll take what we can get. This forecast is also predicated on the tropical system behaving as advertised, so there is some uncertainty in the forecast later this week.

    Looking out into week 2, the GFS is maintaining the ridge over the Central Plains states which would keep much of the eastern two thirds of the country rather warm and toasty. Some hint at a weak trough affecting the ridge toward the end of June, but that seems pretty iffy.

    I should have the next Weather Xtreme Video here on Monday morning while James Spann is on vacation. Be sure to catch the latest forecast on ABC 3340 at 5 and 10 pm this evening.

    -Brian-

    Categories: Weather

    Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Shelby County

    ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Sat, 06/13/2015 - 18:23

    UPDATE AT 645PM

    THe NWS has canceled the warning as the storms have weakened slightly. 

    ORIGINAL POST: Strong thunderstorms near Calera have the potential to produce winds of 60 mph or greater and hail to the size of nickels. 

    This storm will move across the Birmingahm Metro over the next 75 minutes. 

    There is a storm out ahead of this one that is moving into southern Birmingham now but it is not severe. 

    Other storms are lined up from northwest to southeast across Cental Alabama. Everything is moving north at about 25 mph. 

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A
    * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
    CENTRAL SHELBY COUNTY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA…

    * UNTIL 700 PM CDT

    * AT 622 PM CDT…A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER CALERA…
    MOVING NORTH AT 35 MPH.

    HAZARD…60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

    SOURCE…RADAR INDICATED.

    IMPACT…EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS…SIDING AND TREES.

    * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
    HOOVER…ALABASTER…PELHAM…HELENA…CALERA…CHELSEA…
    MONTEVALLO…INDIAN SPRINGS VILLAGE…WILTON…UNIVERSITY OF
    MONTEVALLO…LAKE PURDY…MEADOWBROOK…OAK MOUNTAIN STATE PARK…
    MAYLENE…SHELBY COUNTY AIRPORT…AMERICAN VILLAGE…OAK MOUNTAIN
    AMPHITHEATER…BROOK HIGHLAND…RIVERCHASE AND SAGINAW.

    Categories: Weather
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