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Hot/Hazy Summer Weather; Isolated Storms

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Thu, 07/09/2015 - 15:23

RADAR CHECK: Most of the showers and storms are over the southern half of the state this afternoon, and even there they are widely spaced. Otherwise, the day is hot and hazy with temperatures in the low to mid 90s.

TOMORROW THROUGH THE WEEKEND: An upper air high will remain parked over the Deep South, meaning little change in our weather through Sunday. Partly sunny, hot, hazy days, fair nights, and a few thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. In this pattern storms that do form will be widely separated, but strong. SPC has parts of Central and South Alabama in a “marginal” severe weather risk for Saturday.

Highs will be generally in the mid 90s, slightly above average for mid-July in Alabama.

NEXT WEEK: The 12Z GFS continues the idea of the ridge holding next week, so I am not sure we will see much weather change. Partly sunny, hot, hazy days will continue with just a few widely spaced afternoon storms each day. Highs will hold in the low to mid 90s if the ridge does stay in place. But, remember earlier GFS runs suggested some type of upper low could form around the Mid-South at mid-week. For now that idea is off the table.

See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

AT THE BEACH: About 7 to 9 hours of sunshine daily on the Gulf Coast between Gulf Shores and Panama City Beach, with the usual risk of a passing thunderstorm from time to time. One storm on the coast produced this waterspout this morning on the East Bay at Gulf Breeze, FL… photo from Amy Leonard

Highs on the immediate coast will be in the upper 80s, with low 90s inland. Sea water temperatures are mostly in the mid 80s.

TROPICS: No sign of any active weather in the tropical Atlantic; over in the western Pacific Typhoon Chan-Hom will move into the China coast over the weekend.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Categories: Weather

Hot Fun In The Summertime

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Thu, 07/09/2015 - 06:20

HOT JULY WEATHER: You know it is summertime when I start bringing out song lyrics… remember Sly and the Family Stone from the 70s?

“End of the spring and here she comes back
Hi, hi, hi, hi, there
Them summer days, those summer days
That’s when I had most of my fun back
High, high, high, high there
Them summer days, those summer days”

Expect hot days through the weekend with a good supply of hazy sunshine each day; afternoon highs will be mostly in the mid 90s.

Don’t forget thunderstorms will form during the peak of the daytime heating process each day, but the warm air aloft associated with the upper ridge across the Deep South will keep them few in number. It is interesting to note that SPC has introduced a “marginal” severe weather risk of much of Central and South Alabama Saturday, with the idea of the heat ridge shifting slightly to the west…

So, storms that form Saturday afternoon will pack a punch, but they will still be very widely spaced, and most likely over East and South Alabama.

NEXT WEEK: Confidence in the forecast is low due to model inconsistency. The 12Z GFS yesterday showed the ridge breaking down by mid-week, with an upper low forming by Wednesday near Memphis… resulting in lower heat levels and higher rain coverage. But, the 00Z and 06Z runs have backed off on that idea, keeping a ridge in place. We will still trend toward wetter weather by mid-week, and watch future runs. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

AT THE BEACH: About 8 to 10 hours of sunshine each day along the Gulf Coast through the weekend from Panama City Beach west to Gulf Shores, with the usual risk of an occasional passing thunderstorm. Highs on the immediate coast will stay in the mid to upper 80s, with low to mid 90s inland. The sea water temperature this morning at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab is 86 degrees.

TOPIC: TROPICS: The Atlantic basin remains very quiet… over in the western Pacific, Typhoon Linfa has made landfall Thursday in southern China, and Typhoon Chan-hom will be near the China coast Saturday.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day!

Categories: Weather

Hot Afternoons; Very Few Showers

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Wed, 07/08/2015 - 15:28

TYPICAL JULY WEATHER: An upper ridge is keeping it mostly dry across Alabama this afternoon…

Any showers through the evening hours will be very isolated; temperatures are mostly in the low 90s.

TOMORROW THROUGH THE WEEKEND: The ridge holds, and our weather will stay mostly hot and dry with mostly sunny, hazy days and fair nights. Understand a few showers and storms are very possible each afternoon during the peak of the daytime heating process, but they will remain widely separated. The chance of any one spot getting wet will remain in the 10-20 percent range daily.

The weather stays hot; highs will be in the 92-95 degree range tomorrow and Friday, and mid 90s are likely over the weekend. It will certainly feel like July in Alabama.

NEXT WEEK: Another pattern change. The heat ridge shifts to the west, and the 12Z run of the GFS is advertising an upper low near Memphis by mid-week. This will mean lower heat levels, and higher rain chances by Tuesday and Wednesday, with highs back in the 80s both days. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

AT THE BEACH: Mostly sunny days, fair nights along the Central Gulf Coast from Panama City Beach west to Gulf Shores through the weekend, with the usual risk of a passing storm from time to time, but those storms will be widely scattered. Highs on the immediate coast will be in the mid to upper 80s, with low to mid 90s inland. Sea water temperatures are mostly in the low to mid 80s.

TROPICS: The Atlantic basin remains very quiet… over in the western Pacific, Typhoon Chan-hom will be approaching the China coast as the weekend begins.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I enjoyed seeing everyone at the Social Security Administration office in Alexander City this morning for a severe weather safety meeting… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Categories: Weather

Hot, Hazy Summer Days

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Wed, 07/08/2015 - 05:26

SHOWERS/STORMS REMAIN WIDELY SPACED: Alabama’s weather will look and feel like July through Friday, with mostly sunny, hot, hazy days and fair humid nights. Each afternoon a few showers and storms could pop up during the heat of the day, but they will be few and far between thanks to an upper ridge across the southern U.S. The chance of any one spot getting wet is only 10-20 percent each day, and highs will be in the 92 to 95 degree range. Just like we expect in July.

THE WEEKEND: No change; the warm air aloft associated with the upper ridge should keep a lid on most developing showers and storms, anything that fires up during the afternoon and evening hours will remain very widely spaced, and it will be hot with highs up in the mid 90s. A few West Alabama communities could reach the upper 90s both days.

NEXT WEEK: We stay hot and mostly dry Monday, but the upper ridge weakens and by Tuesday and Wednesday we project better chances for showers and storms, and lower heat levels. A chance we see highs back in the upper 80s by Wednesday. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

AT THE BEACH: Mostly sunny days, fair nights on the coast from Panama City Beach west to Gulf Shores through the weekend with only isolated thunderstorms. Highs on the immediate coast in the mid to upper 80s, with low 90s inland. Sea water temperatures are mostly in the low to mid 80s.

TROPICS: The Atlantic basin remains very quiet, and the western Pacific is active; typhoon Chan-hom will threaten the China coast as the weekend begins.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon…

Categories: Weather

Showers Few And Far Between

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Tue, 07/07/2015 - 15:18

RADAR CHECK: As expected, there just isn’t much on radar this afternoon thanks to an upper air high building across the Deep South. There are basically two showers in progress over the northern half of the state at 3:15 this afternoon…

And, for the first time since June 29, Birmingham has reached 90 degrees this afternoon.

REST OF THE WEEK: The upper ridge will keep the big, organized rain west and north of Alabama, where flooding is possible from North Texas through East Oklahoma, North Arkansas, and southern Missouri. Here at home expect hot and hazy days with a good supply of sunshine, with only isolated afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. The chance of any one spot getting wet will stay in the 20 percent range, and highs will be generally in the lower 90s.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Not much change. Showers will remain very widely spaced; otherwise partly to mostly sunny, hot, hazy days continue Saturday and Sunday. As the upper high strengthens there is a decent chance we reach the mid 90s both days. It will feel like July.

NEXT WEEK: The upper high moves to the west, and another upper trough will develop over the eastern third of the nation, meaning heat levels coming down, and rain chances going up by mid-week. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

AT THE BEACH: Mostly sunny days, and fair nights through the weekend on the coast from Panama City Beach west to Gulf Shores… only widely scattered thunderstorms. Highs on the immediate coast will be in the mid to upper 80s, with low 90s inland. Sea water temperatures are in the low to mid 80s.

TROPICS: The Atlantic basin remains quiet, and tropical storm formation is not expected through the weekend. The western Pacific, however, remains very active…

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Twitter
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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Categories: Weather

Only Isolated Showers Later Today

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Tue, 07/07/2015 - 06:25

HOTTER, DRIER DAYS: A fairly typical summer weather pattern is setting up across the Deep South this week thanks to a developing upper ridge. The high resolution HRRR model does show a few showers across North/Central Alabama this afternoon, but they will be very widely spaced.

A decent chance we reach 90 degrees today for the first time since June 29. Going seven consecutive days below 90 in summer in very rare in Alabama.

REST OF THE WEEK: Not much change tomorrow through Friday; partly sunny days, fair nights, and only isolated afternoon showers or storms. Afternoon highs generally between 90 and 93… pretty much what you expect this time of the year.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: No change… a 5940 meter 500 millibar ridge will be overhead, meaning hot afternoons with hazy sunshine and only isolated showers or thunderstorms. Highs for the weekend will be in the low to mid 90s.

NEXT WEEK: The heat ridge begins to shift westward, and that should open the door for lower heat levels and better rain changes toward the middle and latter part of the week. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

AT THE BEACH: Looking good through the weekend along the Gulf Coast from Panama City Beach west to Gulf Shores, with mostly sunny days, fair nights, and only widely scattered storms. Highs on the immediate coast will be in the mid to upper 80s, with low to mid 90s inland. The sea water temperature early this morning on the Alabama Gulf Coast is 83 degrees.

TROPICS: The Atlantic basin remains very quiet… fairly typical of an El Nino year. Most of the action remains in the western Pacific.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Scroll down for the show notes on the new episode we recorded last night.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day!

Categories: Weather

WeatherBrains 493: Numerous Assets

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Tue, 07/07/2015 - 05:14

WeatherBrains Episode 493 is now online (July 6, 2015). If you are crazy about weather, this is THE netcast audio program for you!

Tonight’s Guest WeatherBrain is a show Alum, having appeared on show 314 back in January 2012 when he was the MIC at the NWS in Atlanta. He has since served as the Deputy Chief of the Warning Research & Development Division and now serves as the Deputy Chief of the National Severe Storms Laboratory. Lans Rothfusz, welcome to WeatherBrains!

WeatherBrains 101: Weather observations include a variety of weather data including information about the amount of clouds and cloud height. Sometimes that height can have special meaning when you get to the first broken or overcast layer. This height has a special name, too, called the ceiling height which is out topic for this episode.

Listener Surveys: Okay, we continue to drive this topic into the ground, but we really do like to hear from you. Many thanks to everyone who has taken the time to fill out the Listener Survey. The survey takes just a minute or two to complete and provides us with an opportunity to learn where you are and hear your thoughts and comments on the show. Click here to take the survey.

To subscribe to the brand new SkyWritings, an email newsletter from the WeatherBrains gang, click HERE.

Picks of the Week:

John Scala – Record-breaking Solar Flight Reaches Hawaii

Rick Smith – SPC state based convective outlook

James Spann – Interactive typhoon plots

SkyDavers Blog – The Fog Bank

The WeatherBrains crew includes your host, James Spann, plus other notable geeks like Nate Johnson, Bill Murray, Aubrey Urbanowicz, Dr. John Scala, Rick Smith, Kevin Selle, and Brian Peters. They bring together a wealth of weather knowledge and experience for another fascinating netcast about weather.

Categories: Weather

WeatherBrains 493: Numerous Assets

WeatherBrains - Tue, 07/07/2015 - 04:45

WeatherBrains Episode 493 is now online (July 6, 2015). If you are crazy about weather, this is THE netcast audio program for you!

Tonight’s Guest WeatherBrain is a show Alum, having appeared on show 314 back in January 2012 when he was the MIC at the NWS in Atlanta. He has since served as the Deputy Chief of the Warning Research & Development Division and now serves as the Deputy Chief of the National Severe Storms Laboratory. Lans Rothfusz, welcome to WeatherBrains!

WeatherBrains 101: Weather observations include a variety of weather data including information about the amount of clouds and cloud height. Sometimes that height can have special meaning when you get to the first broken or overcast layer. This height has a special name, too, called the ceiling height which is out topic for this episode.

Listener Surveys: Okay, we continue to drive this topic into the ground, but we really do like to hear from you. Many thanks to everyone who has taken the time to fill out the Listener Survey. The survey takes just a minute or two to complete and provides us with an opportunity to learn where you are and hear your thoughts and comments on the show. Click here to take the survey.

To subscribe to the brand new SkyWritings, an email newsletter from the WeatherBrains gang, click HERE.

Picks of the Week:

John Scala – Record-breaking Solar Flight Reaches Hawaii

Rick Smith – SPC state based convective outlook

James Spann – Interactive typhoon plots

SkyDavers Blog – The Fog Bank

The WeatherBrains crew includes your host, James Spann, plus other notable geeks like Nate Johnson, Bill Murray, Aubrey Urbanowicz, Dr. John Scala, Rick Smith, Kevin Selle, and Brian Peters. They bring together a wealth of weather knowledge and experience for another fascinating netcast about weather.

Categories: Weather

Hotter Afternoons, Fewer Showers

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Mon, 07/06/2015 - 13:08

CALMER WEATHER AHEAD: The persistent northwest flow aloft pattern that was over Alabama has broken down, and the weather will be calmer this week. The northwest flow brought a series of waves and boundaries down this way enhancing shower and thunderstorm formation, but now we have an upper ridge building in, and that will mean hotter afternoons and fewer showers and thunderstorms.

We have little showing up on radar this afternoon, but a “pop up” shower or storm will remain possible in random places through the evening hours.

REST OF THE WEEK: A decent chance we see a high at 90 degrees tomorrow, making it the first day with a 90 degree high since June 29. Going consecutive days under 90 in Alabama in late June and July is pretty remarkable. During the peak of the daytime heating process tomorrow, we might see a shower or two, but they should be very widely spaced.

Then, we expect very typical July weather Wednesday through Friday with partly sunny days, and the risk of “widely scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms”. Highs will be in the 90 to 93 degree range, and the chance of any one spot getting wet will be only in the 20 percent range.

THE WEEKEND: A 5940 meter 500 mb ridge will be on top of us, so most communities will be dry Saturday and Sunday, although, of course, one or two afternoon storms could fire up in the hot, humid environment.

We have plentiful soil moisture, and that will help to keep heat levels down a bit (part of the sun’s energy is used to evaporate soil moisture, instead of heating the ground, which heats the air).. still afternoon highs should be somewhere between 92 and 95 both days with a good supply of hazy sunshine through scattered cumulus clouds.

NEXT WEEK: The ridge breaks down, and a new upper trough forms over the eastern half of the nation, meaning temperatures should trend downward, with a better chance of scattered showers and storms by mid-week. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

AT THE BEACH: About 7 to 9 hours of sunshine each day through the weekend on the Central Gulf Coast from Panama City Beach west to Gulf Shores, and of course you will probably see a passing storm from time to time. Highs on the coast will be in the mid to upper 80s, with low 90s inland. Sea water temperatures are running mostly in the low 80s.

TROPICS: The Atlantic basin remains very quiet… all of the action is over the western Pacific. Typhoon Chan-Hom will make a run for China in 5 days or so.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show tonight at 8:30 CT… you can watch it on “James Spann 24/7″ on cable systems around the state, or on the web here.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Categories: Weather

Trending Hotter and Drier

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Mon, 07/06/2015 - 06:17

RADAR CHECK: The weather is pretty quiet at daybreak across Alabama; we note just a few small, isolated showers over the northeast counties of the state. Temperatures are mostly in the 67-72 degree range.

THE DAY AHEAD: We will still mention the risk of a few scattered showers or storms this afternoon and early tonight, but they will be fewer in number as an upper ridge begins to build across the Deep South. The high will be in the mid to upper 80s… it is very interesting to note that Birmingham has failed to reach 90 degrees so far during the month of July. The last time we had a high of 90 or higher was back on June 29, when the high was 91. This will be the the seventh consecutive day with a high only in the 80s.

We do note SPC has parts of West and South Alabama under a “marginal” risk of severe storms later today; where they do form the storms could be pretty strong in that part of the state.

RES OF THE WEEK: The upper ridge will continue to slowly build, meaning the northwest flow pattern that brought the enhanced rain coverage is gone for a while. Expect partly sunny days with a few isolated afternoon storms, but many places will have a chance to dry out. And, we heat up… a good chance we do see 90 degree heat tomorrow, with low 90s likely Wednesday through Friday.

The chance of any one spot getting wet each day will be in the 20-30 percent range, and most of the showers and storms will come during the afternoon and evening hours.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: The weekend looks very routine for mid-July in Alabama…. partly sunny, hot, humid days with the risk of “scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the 91-94 degree range.

NEXT WEEK: The GFS suggests the upper trough over the eastern U.S. will become established again, with the heat ridge moving back to the west. This means next week should be wetter and not as hot… see the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

GULF COAST WEATHER: Looks good this week with about 6 to 8 hours of sunshine daily from Panama City Beach west to Gulf Shores, and the usual risk of a passing storm from time to time. Highs on the immediate coast will be in the mid to upper 80s, with low 90s inland. The sea water temperature this morning at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab has dropped to 79 degrees.

TROPICS: Very quiet across the Atlantic basin with very dry air in many regions, and tropical storm formation is not expected this week. Most of the action is over in the western Pacific.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show tonight at 8:30 CT… you can watch it on “James Spann 24/7″ on cable systems around the state, or on the web here.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day!

Categories: Weather

More Storms Expected

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Sun, 07/05/2015 - 06:59

A quick look at the radar this morning showed much of the action occurring across South Alabama where the boundary sagged last night. The flash flood watch issued yesterday was allowed to expire this morning. Additional showers are expected to develop later today in the warmth of the afternoon.

At 500 millibars, the small upper low was located over the eastern half of Tennessee as it slowly migrates northeastward reducing its influence on our weather pattern. As the low gets absorbed into the primary westerly flow and moves into the Mid-Atlantic States, the pattern across the Southeast US will be replaced by gradual ridging as the Bermuda high builds across the southern US from the western Atlantic. This upper air pattern should favor a return to more diurnally driven showers and storms for the week ahead as temperatures also climb back into the lower 90s.

With the westerlies located along the northern tier of the US, another cold front will approach the Ohio and Tennessee River valleys at mid-week but is expected to wash out before we can see any kind of air mass change. This keep the moist air mass in place and keeps scattered showers and storms in the forecast for much of the week ahead.

The Atlantic Basin remains especially quiet as the South Atlantic remains covered by a large mass of dry Saharan air. There was a little more action in the Eastern Pacific where a tropical depression is likely to form early next week well out in the Pacific.

The SPC in Norman, OK, has continued a marginal risk of severe storms along the Gulf and Southeast US coasts for today with an enhanced risk of severe storms centered mainly on South Dakota later in the day. They have only a marginal risk area ahead of that front for Monday or Day 2.

Headed to the beach? About 6 to 8 hours of sunshine daily for the Central Gulf Coast heading into next week, from Dauphin Island to Panama City Beach. Storms will be more numerous today, but each day in the week ahead there will be a decent chance for a passing storm from time to time, fairly typical with the daily sea breeze effect. Highs on the immediate coast will remain in the mid to upper 80s, with lower 90s inland. Sea water yesterday afternoon at Perdido Pass at Orange Beach was reported to be 81 degrees.

Looking out into voodoo country, the GFS continues to advertise the potential for the trough to stay a feature across the eastern US into Week 2. While the ridge builds and decays, the presence of the overall trough across the eastern third of the country is certainly a positive sign for keeping any extreme heat at bay.

James Spann will be back with the next edition of the Weather Xtreme Video first thing on Monday morning. Check back here often for updates on the Central Alabama weather.

-Brian-

Categories: Weather

Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Elmore and Tallapoosa County

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Sat, 07/04/2015 - 17:24

Strong thunderstorms over the Montgomery area are moving east northeast.

Areas from Wetumpka to Eclectic to Tallassee are in the path of the storm. Parts of southern Lake will also be impacted.

Eastern Montgomery is also being impacted by very strong storms as well.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
SOUTH CENTRAL TALLAPOOSA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA…
CENTRAL ELMORE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA…

* UNTIL 600 PM CDT

* AT 523 PM CDT…A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER BLUE
RIDGE…OR OVER WETUMPKA…MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD…60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE…RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT…EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS…SIDING AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
WETUMPKA…TALLASSEE…ECLECTIC…MARTIN DAM…EMERALD MOUNTAIN…
BLUE RIDGE…TALLAPOOSA CITY…SANTUCK…REEVES AIRPORT…WESTERN
LAKE MARTIN…YATES RESERVOIR…CLAUD…WALLSBORO…WARE AND YATES
DAM.

Categories: Weather

Afternoon Update

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Sat, 07/04/2015 - 14:05

After the very active start to the day, we have see a lull in the action and actually have see some decent sunshine across portions of the state. The breaks in the cloud cover, as seen below, are allowing instability to build and we are once again seeing convection blossom across portions of the Southeast.

Under these puffy white clouds, we are seeing numerous showers and storms. These storms are producing a lot of lightning, gusty winds, intense rainfall, and possibly even some hail. A quick look at the radar shows a cluster of storms over West Alabama and they are tracking towards the east. It looks as though the bulk of the activity will be staying just to the south of Interstate 20 corridor.

Click image to enlarge.

For the rest of today we will continue to see showers and storms develop across Central Alabama and these could affect some of those fireworks shows, but hopefully we will see enough breaks in the action that will allow the shows to go on. Heading into Sunday, expect more of the same across the state. A stall frontal boundary to our north, and a warm and moist air mass will allow for numerous showers and storms to develop once again tomorrow. These storms will produce loads of lightning, but flooding could be the greatest concern. A reminder, much of Central Alabama remains under a flash flood watch through Sunday morning.

Categories: Weather

Watch May Be Issued

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Sat, 07/04/2015 - 11:46

AREAS AFFECTED…PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SRN MS…EXTREME W-CENTRAL AL

CONCERNING…SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE…40 PERCENT

SUMMARY…THUNDERSTORMS MAY POSE A RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. TRENDS IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE
MONITORED AND A WATCH IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO 18Z.

DISCUSSION…LATEST RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW AN
EAST-WEST ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BISECTING THE STATE OF
MISSISSIPPI…WITH RECENT MOTION TO THE SOUTH AT AROUND 10 MPH. A
WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE
LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THUNDERSTORMS WERE SLOWLY
INTENSIFYING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A CONVECTIVELY-GENERATED COLD
POOL OVER WEST-CENTRAL MS…AND ALSO IN THE VICINITY OF THE E-W
BOUNDARY FROM NEAR JACKSON TO JUST NORTH OF MERIDIAN. AMPLE HEATING
OF THE MOIST AIR MASS SOUTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN A
MODERATE/STRONG SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY…AND 25-35 KTS OF WSW
FLOW IN THE 2-4 KM AGL LAYER IS FAVORABLY ALIGNED WITH OVERALL STORM
MOTIONS. A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE EASTWARD-MOVING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY NEAR AND
SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR…AND AN ISOLATED THREAT WILL EXIST WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPING FARTHER EAST INTO EAST-CENTRAL MS/FAR
W-CENTRAL AL.

RADAR TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND A WW IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO 18Z.

Categories: Weather

Cool Pic of the Day

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Sat, 07/04/2015 - 10:16

Here is a cool graphic of the current visible satellite image with radar echoes superimposed.

That delineated line is the outflow sinking south.

You can see clearing out behind it. The southward impetus of the outflow and the low level southerly surface winds are blowing off the tops of the clouds, resulting in the striations.

Additional storms are already firing back in western Mississippi, Louisiana and Arkansas. They are the result of another wind maximum moving through the upper trough just to our northwest that results in diffluence or spreading apart aloft, which creates lift at the surface!

Categories: Weather

Flooding Scenes from Shades Creek

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Sat, 07/04/2015 - 09:36

Serious flooding continues across parts of the Birmingham Metro despite the fact that the rain has ended.

these photos are from the Mountain Brook Parkway, courtesy of @Davi29P who apparently lives in the Old Mill House.

Click to enlarge montage

Water rescues have been ongoing at the Rue Maison and Rue Deville apartments on Shades Creek at Lakeshore and Green Springs.

Categories: Weather

Record Rainfall for the Date

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Sat, 07/04/2015 - 08:33

3.12 inches of rain has fallen at the Birmingham Airport so far today through 8:15 a.m.

This is a new record rainfall for July 4th in the Magic City.

The former record (2.10″) was recorded in the first year we have reliable records, 1895!

That same year, the high was only 80F. We might not see 80F today. It we stay at 76F or cooler, it will tie or beat the record cool high for Independence Day. A few breaks in the clouds should prevent that from happening, but it could be a top ten coolest Fourth of July at Birmingham. And it certainly is the wettest!

Categories: Weather

Will It Rain All Day?

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Sat, 07/04/2015 - 08:21

The answer is…no.

Almost everyone will see rain today, but there will be breaks.

The current band of rain covering nearly all of North Central Alabama is beginning to slowly diminish at this hour. It should end over western Alabama by 10 a.m. and in the Birmingham area by noon.

Locations along and east of I-65 should see a 2-4 hour break in the rain through early afternoon.

But additional rain and storms will move into and form over western Alabama starting around noon, and this activity will work its way across the area through the afternoon with most folks seeing another 2-3 hours of rain.

Based on the HRRR model, which we are depicting above in a 15 hour loop, the rain should start again in Birmingham around mid-afternoon and last 2-3 hours. Then there could be a nice break for several hours, perhaps allowing Thunder on the Mountain and other fireworks displays to go off without any rain problems.

None of this is poured in concrete and is based on model data, so stay tuned.

LATE NOTE
3.12 inches at Birmingham Airport so far today through 8:15 a.m. This is a new record rainfall for July 4th in the Magic City. The former record (2.10″0 was recorded in the first year we have reliable records, 1895!

Categories: Weather

Serious Situation in Birmingham Metro

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Sat, 07/04/2015 - 08:04

A serious flash flooding situation is in effect in the Birmingham Metro.

John Talbot reports that Homewood Police and Fire have a major water rescue/evacuation in progress at apartments off Lakeshore Dr.

Birmingham Fire and Rescue also performing water rescues.

Please, on this Fourth of July, turn around, don’t drown! Don’t put first responders and your family in jeopardy by driving into flood waters.

Here is the current radar:

More heavy rain continues across southern parts of the Birmingham Metro at this hour. The heaviest rain is in the I-459 corridor around Hoover up to Liberty Park. Thunderstorms have really increased in that area with lots of lightning and booming thunder. I have picked up 2.32 inches of rain since midnight in Vestavia off Acton Road.

Rain is slowing over the City of Birmingham, which is good news, but serious flash flooding continues.

Categories: Weather

Village Creek Situation

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Sat, 07/04/2015 - 07:31

LATE REPORT
Village Creek now at 10.93 feet and still rising.

ORIGINAL POST
You can see from this flood gauge graphic how rapidly the water has risen on Village Creek in western Birmingham.

Additional very heavy rain is falling in this area still and the flooding is expected to worsen.

Here is what flooding looks like at 11 feet from an experimental graphic from the NWS Birmingham.

Categories: Weather
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