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WeatherBrains 441: Plenty of Time for a Snafu

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Tue, 07/08/2014 - 05:15

WeatherBrains Episode 441 is now online (July 7, 2014). If you are crazy about weather, this is THE netcast audio program for you!

Tonight’s Guest WeatherBrain is currently serving as Acting Director of the National Weather Service (NWS) Operations Proving Ground (OPG) in Kansas City, MO. His career in operational meteorology spans more than 35 years, first with the US Air Force, then with NOAA and the NWS. Kim Runk, welcome to WeatherBrains!

Three WCMs are on the show tonight, including Kim, of course Rick and a retired WCM in Brian. Going to put Rick and Brian in the hot seats with Kim tonight for a little world of WCM discussion.

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

  • Extremes: 119 at Death Valley, CA, and 38 at Stanley, ID, and Snake River, WY
  • Severe storm risk from Nebraska eastward to southern New England
  • Since our last show, Hurricane Arthur came and went along East Coast
  • Tropics quiet for now
  • and more!
  • Our email bag officer is out again, so the mail bag is getting heavy.

    From The Weather Center:

    WeatherBrains 101: This episode of WeatherBrains 101 puts in a plug for child safety in hot cars. Did you know that 15 children have died this year already from heat stroke brought on by being left in an unattended automobile. There needs to be more attention drawn to this danger of hot weather.

    TWIWH: Bill Murray looks back at the week of July 7.

    Listener Surveys: Okay, we continue to drive this topic into the ground, but we really do like to hear from you. Many thanks to everyone who has taken the time to fill out the Listener Survey. The survey takes just a minute or two to complete and provides us with an opportunity to learn where you are and hear your thoughts and comments on the show. Click here to take the survey.

    Web Sites from Episode 441:

    NWS Operations Proving Ground Charter

    NOAA Testbed and Proving Grounds

    Picks of the Week:

    Nate Johnson – Lamp Simulates Thunderstorm

    Bill Murray – Kim Runk’s Video on Culture Change in the NWS

    Brian Peters – Kids and Cars on Heat Stroke

    Kim Runk – @nwstornado – any NWS tornado warning will have this hashtag

    Rick Smith – Leading Culture Change in the NWS

    James Spann – Joint Typhoon Warning Center

    SkyDavers Blog – The Fog Bank

    The WeatherBrains crew includes your host, James Spann, plus other notable geeks like Nate Johnson, Bill Murray, Rick Smith, and Brian Peters. They bring together a wealth of weather knowledge and experience for another fascinating netcast about weather.

    Categories: Weather

    WeatherBrains 441: Plenty of Time for a Snafu

    WeatherBrains - Tue, 07/08/2014 - 04:45

    WeatherBrains Episode 441 is now online (July 7, 2014). If you are crazy about weather, this is THE netcast audio program for you!

    Tonight’s Guest WeatherBrain is currently serving as Acting Director of the National Weather Service (NWS) Operations Proving Ground (OPG) in Kansas City, MO. His career in operational meteorology spans more than 35 years, first with the US Air Force, then with NOAA and the NWS. Kim Runk, welcome to WeatherBrains!

    Three WCMs are on the show tonight, including Kim, of course Rick and a retired WCM in Brian. Going to put Rick and Brian in the hot seats with Kim tonight for a little world of WCM discussion.

    Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

    • Extremes: 119 at Death Valley, CA, and 38 at Stanley, ID, and Snake River, WY
    • Severe storm risk from Nebraska eastward to southern New England
    • Since our last show, Hurricane Arthur came and went along East Coast
    • Tropics quiet for now
    • and more!

    Our email bag officer is out again, so the mail bag is getting heavy.

    From The Weather Center:

    WeatherBrains 101: This episode of WeatherBrains 101 puts in a plug for child safety in hot cars. Did you know that 15 children have died this year already from heat stroke brought on by being left in an unattended automobile. There needs to be more attention drawn to this danger of hot weather.

    TWIWH: Bill Murray looks back at the week of July 7.

    Listener Surveys: Okay, we continue to drive this topic into the ground, but we really do like to hear from you. Many thanks to everyone who has taken the time to fill out the Listener Survey. The survey takes just a minute or two to complete and provides us with an opportunity to learn where you are and hear your thoughts and comments on the show. Click here to take the survey.

    Web Sites from Episode 441:

    NWS Operations Proving Ground Charter

    NOAA Testbed and Proving Grounds

    Picks of the Week:

    Nate Johnson – Lamp Simulates Thunderstorm

    Bill Murray – Kim Runk’s Video on Culture Change in the NWS

    Brian Peters – Kids and Cars on Heat Stroke

    Kim Runk – @nwstornado – all NWS tornado warnings will be automatically transmitted by this username, and you can follow it to be apprised of ongoing warnings all over the country. There is also a companion username @NWSSevereTstorm, for SVR/SVS issuances.

    Rick Smith – Leading Culture Change in the NWS

    James Spann – Joint Typhoon Warning Center

    SkyDavers Blog – The Fog Bank

    The WeatherBrains crew includes your host, James Spann, plus other notable geeks like Nate Johnson, Bill Murray, Rick Smith, and Brian Peters. They bring together a wealth of weather knowledge and experience for another fascinating netcast about weather.

    Categories: Weather

    Only Isolated Showers This Afternoon

    ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Mon, 07/07/2014 - 15:47

    An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

    RADAR CHECK: Pretty quiet at mid-afternoon as expected… we just have a few isolated showers over Northwest Alabama moving slowly to the east; these should fizzle out pretty quickly after sunset. Otherwise, the sky is partly to mostly sunny, and most places are seeing a high around 90 degrees.

    MID-WEEK: A surface boundary will approach from the north, and tomorrow there should be an increase in the number of showers and storms mainly over the Tennessee Valley region of far North Alabama… the rest of the state will see only isolated showers with a high at or just over 90.

    Then, all of North/Central Alabama should see scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday as the front stalls out near the Alabama/Tennessee border. SPC has the low end 5 percent severe possibility in place for much of our state Wednesday, so a few strong storms are possible with gusty winds, but organized severe weather for now doesn’t look likely with a relatively weak wind field. Highs will drop into the mid to upper 80s Wednesday and Thursday because of clouds and showers, and average rain amounts of around one inch can be expected. Of course, we all know that summer rain distribution is very uneven, and your amount could vary.

    FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: The 12Z run of the GFS model continues to show drier air creeping down into the northern third of the state, and the chance of rain accordingly will decrease with increasing amounts of sunshine. The weekend looks mostly dry and hot; highs in the low 90s with only isolated showers Saturday and Sunday.

    Still some evidence showers and storms could increase again early next week across the Deep South as the upper ridge begins to weaken a bit. See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and details.

    GULF COAST WEATHER: Looks good through the weekend; about 7 to 9 hours of sunshine each day, with the usual risk of widely scattered thunderstorms. Highs on the immediate coast will be in the upper 80s… sea water temperatures are generally in the mid 80s.

    TROPICS: The Atlantic basin remains quiet with dry air over much of the basin. Over in the western Pacific, thankfully Neogrui lost the “super typhoon” status today as drier air has entered the circulation. Still, it is the equivalent of a category three hurricane, and will pass just west of Okinawa tomorrow, and impact far southern Japan later this week (main risk there will come from flooding). See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps and graphics.

    WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show tonight at 8:30 CT… you can watch it on “James Spann 24/7″ on cable systems around the state, or on the web here.

    CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

    Facebook
    Twitter
    Google Plus
    Instagram

    Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow….

    Categories: Weather

    July 7, 2014 Weather Xtreme Video - Afternoon Edition

    Weather Xtreme Video - Mon, 07/07/2014 - 15:47
    July 7, 2014 Weather Xtreme Video - Afternoon Edition
    The ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is a detailed weather discussion for Alabama and the Southeast U.S. which goes beyond the normal stuff you see on TV! From... From: abc3340 Views: 217 6 ratings Time: 05:46 More in News & Politics
    Categories: Weather

    Heat/Humidity Levels Rising

    ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Mon, 07/07/2014 - 06:33

    An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

    BACK IN THE SADDLE: Thanks to Bill Murray, Brian Peters, Meaghan Thomas, and the gang for allowing me to have little down time, which was needed and appreciated. In today’s world of media meteorology, I work 18 hour days (no exaggeration), and getting “off the grid” is something you have to do on occasion. But, always good to be back at it.

    What a Fourth of July weekend… with low humidity and record lows across the great state of Alabama. It will never get much better in mid-summer around here.

    HEATING UP: The last time we had a high at or over 90 degrees was back on July 2, and we have a good chance of reaching 90 (or slightly higher) today as heat and humidity levels rise across the Deep South. The sky will be partly to mostly sunny, and while a few isolated showers could pop up this afternoon, the chance of any one spot getting wet is only about one in ten.

    Not much overall change tomorrow, although the risk of an afternoon shower will be a little higher over the northern third of the state.

    WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: These two days will offer the best chance of showers and thunderstorms as a surface front drops down toward the Alabama/Tennessee state line and becomes stationary. We will project scattered to numerous showers and storms both days, with highs back in the mid to upper 80s because of the clouds and showers. A few strong storms are possible Wednesday afternoon; SPC has low end 5 percent severe weather possibilities in place across much of the state.

    FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: The GFS suggests that drier air could creep into North Alabama Friday, with the higher risk of a shower or storm moving down into the southern half of the state. Then, the front dissipates over the weekend with rising heat levels and few showers. Bottom line is that the weekend for now is looking mostly hot and dry with only isolated showers… highs should be up in the low to mid 90s.

    Showers and storms could show an increase early next week as a weakness in the upper ridge develops. See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and details.

    AT THE BEACH: The weather looks good this week… from Panama City over to Gulf Shores expect about 7 to 9 hours of sunshine each day with only widely scattered thunderstorms. Highs will be in the upper 80s on the immediate coast, and the sea water temperature this morning at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab is 81 degrees.

    TROPICS: The Atlantic basin should be quiet all week as the dry, Saharan dust layer is evident. But, over in the western Pacific, Super Typhoon Neoguri is packing sustained winds of over 150 mph…

    It will skirt by Okinawa tomorrow, and then move up into southern Japan Wednesday. Thankfully it will be weakening as it moves into Japan, but it will still pack a punch.

    WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show tonight at 8:30 CT… you can watch it on “James Spann 24/7″ on cable systems around the state, or on the web here.

    CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

    Facebook
    Twitter
    Google Plus
    Instagram

    Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 or so this afternoon… enjoy the day!

    Categories: Weather

    July 7, 2014 Weather Xtreme Video - Morning Edition

    Weather Xtreme Video - Mon, 07/07/2014 - 06:27
    July 7, 2014 Weather Xtreme Video - Morning Edition
    The ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is a detailed weather discussion for Alabama and the Southeast U.S. which goes beyond the normal stuff you see on TV! From... From: abc3340 Views: 450 3 ratings Time: 06:24 More in News & Politics
    Categories: Weather

    A Few Showers Return

    ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Sun, 07/06/2014 - 14:17

    A very nice early July Sunday is in progress across Central Alabama. Things are returning to normal quickly in the temperature and moisture department across Alabama. Precipitable water values are getting back to 1.5 inches across the state, as evidenced in the lower left panel of the graphic. Temperatures are climbing through the middle 80s for the most part but were already near 90F at Tuscaloosa. You can see the nice field of cumulus clouds which are a byproduct of the increased moisture. A few showers were starting to show up over East Central and South Central Alabama, from Alex City to Montgomery to Greenville over to LaGrange, Georgia. The pulse thunderstorms are drifting aimlessly to the northwest for the most part.

    MyWARN SEVERE WEATHER TODAY: Severe weather is likely today across parts of Wisconsin, southeastern Minnesota, eastern Iowa, northeastern Iowa and northern Illinois. The culprit is a surface low that is moving from Minnesota to Wisconsin.

    TROPICS:  The post tropical low that was Arthur is skirting Newfoundland this morning.  There is a trough of low pressure southeast of Georgia coast that is triggering widespread showers and storms.  It is not recognized as a disturbance yet by the NHC and development is not expected.  But it is another case of where we will probably see our tropical cyclones develop for the most part this year: close in to the U.S.

    Categories: Weather

    Some Clouds as We Warm Up

    ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Sun, 07/06/2014 - 06:49

    An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

    We’re closing out the Fourth of July weekend with another great day of mostly sunny weather as our highs return to values typical for early July with highs reaching near 90. Our atmosphere remained very dry aloft but moisture levels will creep up today and into the first of the week as we see the low level flow come around to the southeast and then the south. Some early morning clouds passing Central Alabama plus a slight uptick in the humidity means a slightly milder start to the day than that truly refreshing start we saw yesterday morning with lows dipping into the 50s generally along and north of the I-20 corridor.

    The good news is that the overall upper air pattern retains the ridge in the West and a general trough over the East which keeps the heat in check. The trough deepens somewhat in response to a strong short wave moving through the westerlies across the southern tier of Canada. Unlike the last front, this trough should signal the approach of a cold front from the north on Wednesday that is likely to get into the area before stalling out like many fronts do in the summertime.

    With the humidity levels up, we should see a return to showers and isolated thunderstorms from Wednesday through the end of the week and into next weekend. Daytime heating is expected to be the main driving force in shower development with rain chances becoming the best on Thursday.

    The trough pulls out to the northeast by the latter part of the week with ridging building again over the Central Mississippi River Valley, leaving a warm and unstable air mass in place across the Southeast with daily chances for showers or thunderstorms.

    Beach goers continue to see a good supply of sun along the Alabama and Northwest Florida beaches with afternoon highs reaching the upper 80s. Scattered showers return to the forecast into Tuesday and the rest of the week with moisture levels up. Gulf water temperatures were still running in the range of 82 to 84.

    Tropics remain quiet now that Arthur is gone.

    The longer range model projections maintain the idea of the ridge in the West and the slight trough in the East through the middle of July, but major ridging was back in the picture by July 21st.

    And you can follow news and weather updates from ABC 33/40 on Twitter here. Stay in the know by following the whole gang – here’s the list…

    James Spann Charles Daniel Bill Murray Brian Peters E-Warn (AL wx watches/warnings)

    Thanks for tuning into the Weather Xtreme Video. James Spann will be back from his vacation with the next edition of the video on Monday morning. Enjoy the end of the July Fourth weekend. Godspeed.

    -Brian-

    Categories: Weather

    July 6 Weather Xtreme Video

    Weather Xtreme Video - Sun, 07/06/2014 - 06:48
    July 6 Weather Xtreme Video
    The ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is a detailed weather discussion for Alabama and the Southeast U.S. which goes beyond the normal stuff you see on TV! From... From: abc3340 Views: 3 0 ratings Time: 05:08 More in News & Politics
    Categories: Weather

    Great Weather Continues

    ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Sat, 07/05/2014 - 12:30

    Once again, it is hard to believe we are in July, when the temps this morning were more like early October. It was quite the cool and refreshing morning as 50s made it down to the Interstate 20 corridor with Birmingham reaching 58, while Tuscaloosa reached 60, and Anniston 61. Elsewhere across the northern portions of the state, Huntsville was 57, Muscle Shoals 56, Cullman 53, and Gadsden 59. Hope you had the chance to enjoy these temps, because it probably will be late September to early October before we see these type of temps again.

    For the rest of today, we are going to continue to see mostly sunny conditions with only a few clouds tracking across the state from east to west. We will all stay dry once again, and temps will continue to warm as most locations will see upper 80s for afternoon highs, with perhaps a few 90s creeping into our southern counties. Humidity levels will remain below seasonal norms for a few more days, but it won’t be too long before the humidity levels return.

    Categories: Weather

    July 5 Weather Xtreme Video

    Weather Xtreme Video - Sat, 07/05/2014 - 06:32
    July 5 Weather Xtreme Video
    The ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is a detailed weather discussion for Alabama and the Southeast U.S. which goes beyond the normal stuff you see on TV! From... From: abc3340 Views: 163 1 ratings Time: 05:18 More in News & Politics
    Categories: Weather

    Not Your Typical July Morning

    ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Sat, 07/05/2014 - 06:32

    An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

    It is definitely not your typical July morning with some great early morning temperatures dipping into the 50s across North and Central Alabama. Black Creek Skywatcher reported a nice 54 this morning and it was 58 at Coker and 59 in Helena. Savor the drier and cooler air as the projections are for upward trends in both humidity and heat for the next few days.

    Arthur has been downgraded to a tropical storm and was losing tropical characteristics as it affected Nova Scotia this morning. Elsewhere, the tropics remain quiet.

    And the weather pattern is somewhat quiet, too, as we see moisture and heat levels gradually return to values more representative of early July. The upper air pattern of a weak trough over the eastern US with the main westerlies across the northern tier of the US remains in place for much of the week ahead. This means that we’ll see temperatures gradually creep back into the lower 90s. These wonderfully low dew points will also climb upward into the middle and upper 60s by the middle and latter part of the week.

    A strong short wave moving across southern Canada at mid-week will deepen the trough over the East enough to allow the approach of another cold front. But as the front approaches, the troughiness across the East begins to lessen, so it does not appear likely that we’ll see another frontal passage for Central Alabama. But with warmth and humidity up, we’ll see a return to primarily daily showers for the latter half of the week.

    Beach goers are also enjoying the benefits of this great weather pattern with beach weather nearly perfect with plenty of sunshine and afternoon highs in the upper 80s. Gulf water temperature reports continued to show values in the middle 80s. But showers return to the forecast by mid-week as moisture levels rise.

    Voodoo country remained somewhat the same on this run from yesterday with a large upper ridge in the West and general troughiness across the East. This keeps us on the eastern periphery of the heat bubble so we should be warm with daily showers but the extreme heat stays to our west under this scenario.

    And you can follow news and weather updates from ABC 33/40 on Twitter here. Stay in the know by following the whole gang – here’s the list…

    James Spann Charles Daniel Bill Murray Brian Peters E-Warn (AL wx watches/warnings)

    Filling in for Meaghan Thomas on ABC 3340 News this weekend, so you can catch the latest forecast at 6 and 10 pm this evening. The next Weather Xtreme Video will come by 8 am or so on Sunday morning. Enjoy one more day of lower humidity for July. Godspeed.

    -Brian-

    Categories: Weather

    Is This the Fourth of July?

    ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Fri, 07/04/2014 - 15:07

    If you didn’t know better, you would think it was late September rather that the Fourth of July across Central Alabama.

    Click image to enlarge.

    First, everyone started off with some comfortable readings this morning. It was 61F at the Birmingham Airport, some ten degrees below the average low for the date of 71F.

    Skies have been mostly sunny, with just a few high clouds and contrails across the middle of the state and over the Tennessee Valley, and a few puny puffy cumulus clouds over western sections.

    The closest showers to Central Alabama were in the Louisiana coastal waters and over the Florida Peninsula, south of a frontal system that is lying over the northern Gulf of Mexico into southern Georgia.

    It was 83F at 3 p.m. at the Birmingham Airport. It that ends up being the high for the day, it would make it the 10th coolest 4th of July on record in the Magic City. 84F would make it the 12th. The interesting thing about the top ten coolest Independence Days in Birmingham is that it rained on nine of them.

    If you remember, last year was the 2nd coldest 4th of July in Birmingham history with a high of 77F. It had been cloudy and rainy all day with flash flood watches.

    FIREWORKS FORECAST
    Usually at this time on the Fourth, we are fretting whether fireworks shows will go on. Not this year. The show will go on and be beautiful in all Alabama cities tonight.

    CHECK ON ARTHUR

    Click image to enlarge.

    Arthur is racing off to the northrast this afternoon. It will brush by Cape Cod and Nantucket this evening with some tropical storm force winds. It will reach Nova Scotia tomorrow morning and Newfoundland Sunday. It will be tropical storm when that happens.

    Damage in North Carolina is minimal, thankfully. Highway 12, the road over the Outer Banks was covered with sand, but it projected to reopen tomorrow.

    Arthur will go in the books at the earliest hurricane in history to make landfall in North Carolina.

    Categories: Weather

    July 4 Weather Xtreme Video

    Weather Xtreme Video - Fri, 07/04/2014 - 06:39
    July 4 Weather Xtreme Video
    The ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is a detailed weather discussion for Alabama and the Southeast U.S. which goes beyond the normal stuff you see on TV! From... From: abc3340 Views: 175 0 ratings Time: 05:29 More in News & Politics
    Categories: Weather

    A Drier and Cooler Fourth of July

    ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Fri, 07/04/2014 - 06:38

    An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

    It’s fabulous weather for the Fourth of July and the weekend with some lowered humidity and cooler air for us to enjoy. Fireworks displays tonight should have no problem from the weather, something we usually have to deal with.

    The overall synoptic weather pattern featured a sprawling high pressure system at the surface centered over Chicago with the tight circulation of Hurricane Arthur beginning to move away from the Mid-Atlantic Coast of the US. Aloft a fairly strong trough for early July was moving across the eastern Great Lakes with ridging along the Rockies. The combination of features allowed for a drier and somewhat cooler air mass to settle into Central Alabama with temperatures below our seasonal values for early July. And those humidities are great with dew points falling into the upper 50s.

    So July 4th will be fantastic and the weekend will follow that example with a gradual warm up. With a slight troughiness over the eastern half of the country with the ridge anchored along the eastern slopes of the Rockies, we won’t be seeing any major changes in the weather for Central Alabama. Temperatures will gradually return to season values with lows in the lower 90s by Sunday and into next week. Morning lows will be in the 60s through Tuesday and into the lower 70s for the rest of week. Moisture values increase slowly during the first of the week, so I expect us to stay dry until Wednesday when we re-introduce the possibility of daily showers. Those daily chances will stay in the forecast through the end of next week.

    Beach goers will enjoy a great Fourth weekend, too, with warm weather, lots of sunshine, and no chance of showers until Monday. Highs will be in the upper 80s and morning lows in the lower 70s for the next several days with the Gulf water temperature running in the middle 80s.

    The GFS continues to keep us guessing about the long range. The latest run continues with the idea of strong ridging over the Central US but toys with keeping a slight trough along the eastern coast of the US that should keep extreme heat at bay.

    And you can follow news and weather updates from ABC 33/40 on Twitter here. Stay in the know by following the whole gang – here’s the list…

    James Spann Charles Daniel Bill Murray Brian Peters E-Warn (AL wx watches/warnings)

    Thanks for staying tuned to the Blog as your weather source. The next Weather Xtreme Video will come Saturday morning. Godspeed.

    -Brian-

    Categories: Weather

    …CENTER OF ARTHUR MAKES LANDFALL…

    ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Thu, 07/03/2014 - 22:30

    We have a technical landfall I believe on Cape Lookout southeast of Morehead City at 10:14 p.m. CDT tonight.

    Now we will wait to see if the NHC agrees and gives the official word.

    Arthur is the first landfalling category two or greater hurricane in the U.S. since Ike in 2008.

    And it is official…

    HURRICANE ARTHUR TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
    1130 PM EDT THU JUL 03 2014

    …CENTER OF ARTHUR MAKES LANDFALL…

    THE CENTER OF ARTHUR MADE LANDFALL AT ABOUT 1115 PM EDT…0315
    UTC…OVER THE SHACKLEFORD BANKS BETWEEN CAPE LOOKOUT AND BEAUFORT
    NORTH CAROLINA. THE NOAA AUTOMATED STATION AT CAPE LOOKOUT RECENTLY
    REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 77 MPH…124 KM/H…AND A WIND GUST OF
    101 MPH…163 KM/H.

    SUMMARY OF 1130 PM EDT…0330 UTC…INFORMATION
    ————————————————–
    LOCATION…34.7N 76.6W
    ABOUT 5 MI…10 KM NW OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA
    ABOUT 65 MI…105 KM WSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…100 MPH…155 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT…NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 18 MPH…30 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…976 MB…28.82 INCHES

    $$
    FORECASTER BEVEN/BLAKE

    Categories: Weather

    Arthur Now Cat 2 – Top Winds 100 mph

    ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Thu, 07/03/2014 - 21:49

    The eye of Hurricane Arthur is skirting the coast just south of Morehead City, NC tonight.

    Here is the 9 p.m. advisory summary and forecast track:

    Click image to enlarge.

    The issue of whether the hurricane will actually make landfall is in play. It is an academic question, cause the worst of the impacts are in the eyewall. If the eye actually stays offshore, the impacts can be worse since locations along the coast stay in the worst weather without a break.

    Here is the radar from Morehead City:

    Landfall is defined as the point when the geometric center of the center crosses the coast. It will be a very close call to see if the geometric center intersects the coastline at Cape Lookout for a technical landfall.

    The NW Wilmington reports that a weather station at Fort Macon east of Atlantic Beach has recorded an 87 mph wind gust. This is in the northern eyewall.

    Categories: Weather

    Arthur Still 90 mph

    ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Thu, 07/03/2014 - 16:07

    Hurricane Arthur has continued to slowly intensify this afternoon as it is over warm water and experiencing very light wind shear. Air Force reconnaissance found a central pressure of 977 mb at 1:41 p.m. The pressure has been steadily dropping for over 24 hours, despite dry air being entrained into the storm from the west. The eye has become clearly visible on this infrared satellite image loop.

    On the inbound leg of that eye penetration, the SFMR instrument (playfully known as the Smurf) estimated the surface winds at 94 mph. So the NHC is holding the winds at 90 mph, still a category one hurricane. The Hurricane Hunters just completed another penetration of the eye and we are awaiting that vortex data report.

    Arthur still has about 18 hours to strengthen and will likely become a category two hurricane.

    Advisory particulars:
    ———————————————-
    LOCATION…33.4N 77.9W
    ABOUT 35 MI…55 KM S OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
    ABOUT 185 MI…300 KM SW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…90 MPH…150 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 13 MPH…20 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…977 MB…28.85 INCHES

    Click image to enlarge.

    The center of the hurricane is approximately 35 miles south of Cape Fear, or 60 miles south of Wilmington. It is a little more than 100 miles SSW of Morehead City and 1180 miles southwest of Cape Hatteras, which both may experience the eye according to the recon plots. You can see those last four center fixes on this graphic.

    Click image to enlarge.

    Winds at Wrightsville Beach near Wilmington were just reported sustained at 35 mph. Here is a radar image from Wilmington:

    You can see the reports of a tornado in Duplin County, NC, as well as a funnel cloud. You can also see where the weather is bad under the feeder bands.

    Weather is Charleston is improving rapidly now as the storm is moving away from them.

    Categories: Weather

    10 a.m. Notes on Arthur: Hurricane Strengthening, Will be Cat 2

    ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Thu, 07/03/2014 - 10:19

    LATE REPORT – NEW VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
    …Shows pressure continues to drop. Now 980 mb.
    …The SFRM instrument estimated 66 knots surface wind (77 mph).
    …Max flight level wind 79 knots (92 mph).

    URNT12 KNHC 031518
    VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL012014
    A. 03/15:02:50Z
    B. 32 deg 25 min N
    078 deg 39 min W
    C. 700 mb 2906 m
    D. 66 kt
    E. 360 deg 0 nm
    F. 297 deg 62 kt
    G. 199 deg 18 nm
    H. 980 mb
    I. 13 C / 3046 m
    J. 14 C / 3046 m
    K. NA / NA
    L. OPEN SW
    M. C30
    N. 12345 / 07
    O. 0.02 / 3 nm
    P. AF301 1101A ARTHUR OB 04
    MAX FL WIND 62 KT 199 / 18 NM 14:57:00Z
    MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 79 KT 048 / 23 NM 15:10:00Z
    MAX FL TEMP 16 C 179 / 13 NM FROM FL CNTR

    ORIGINAL POST
    The new advisory is out on Arthur. It has intensified to 90 mph. This is nearly a category two hurricane (threshold is 96 mph).

    Click image to enlarge.

    FAST FACTS 10 AM CDT
    ———————————————————
    LOCATION…32.4N 78.5W
    ABOUT 260 MI…415 KM SW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
    ABOUT 110 MI…175 KM SSW OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…90 MPH…150 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH…22 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…981 MB…28.97 INCHES

    …Radar motion over the past 90 minutes or so seems to have been directly north. This is troubling, since all of the forecasts are showing a northeasterly turn. That northeasterly turn was very apparent early this morning with the recon fixes showing it clearly. The official track is to the NNE. The forward speed has increased to 14 mph.

    …The central pressure continued to drop all morning. The last report from the plane was 983 mb at 6:26 a.m. CDT. The Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane is penetrating the center now. The NOAA3 P-3 Orion “Kermit” returned to base in Tampa for fuel. Seeing Kermit and Miss Piggy in recon reports always makes me smile.

    …The P3 did measure a 91 knot max flight level wind (105 mph) at 8,000 feet.

    …From the NWS Charleston: Good morning! The eye of Arthur is looking much more impressive over the past few radar volume scans, with an intense band of convection developing just northwest of the center. Buoy 41004 has been gusting to 45 knots with seas of 14 ft! It should be noted with seas that high, the buoy is likely not sampling the winds all that well and sustained winds could actually be closer to what the buoy is reporting as gusts.

    …High surf and dangerous rip currents along the coast. Isle of Palms near Charleston reporting breaking waves 5-6 feet.

    …A few observations from South Carolina:
    …North Myrtle Beach 75F/73F with light rain/fog, SE-8 29.95R
    …Mount Pleasant 77F/73F with drizzle, N 10 G 21, 29.81F
    …Charleston 80F/73F with cloudy skies, N 16 G 23, 29.84F
    …Folly Beach N 24 G 29
    …Buoy (41 miles SE of Charleston) gusts to 52 mph
    …Frying Pan Shoals Buoy is not available

    …Coastal reports from the NWS Wilmington
    OTHER MARINE REPORT
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
    1107 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2014

    …ALL SPEEDS IN KNOTS…

    WIND AIR TEMP(F) WATER TEMP(F) STATION NAME
    SSW 17 80 NA NORTH TOPSAIL BEACH
    SE 11 72 82 WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH
    ESE 5 74 M MASONBORO ISLAND
    M M 74 85 WILMINGTON RIVERFRONT
    CALM 0 74 NA WILMINGTON STATE PORT
    NE 6 78 NA FORT FISHER
    E 10 76 NA BALD HEAD ISLAND
    ENE 8 75 NA SOUTHPORT
    M M M NA OAK ISLAND
    N 15 73 83 MYRTLE BEACH
    N 8 73 84 GEORGETOWN

    Categories: Weather

    July 3 Weather Xtreme Video

    Weather Xtreme Video - Thu, 07/03/2014 - 06:51
    July 3 Weather Xtreme Video
    The ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is a detailed weather discussion for Alabama and the Southeast U.S. which goes beyond the normal stuff you see on TV! From... From: abc3340 Views: 298 3 ratings Time: 06:28 More in News & Politics
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