ABC 33/40 Weather Blog

Syndicate content
The latest information on Alabama weather, tornadoes, hurricanes, winter storms, national weather headlines and the science of meteorology in general.
Updated: 19 min 20 sec ago

Scattered Showers/Storms Return

1 hour 36 min ago

**No afternoon Weather Xtreme video today due to travel**

RADAR CHECK: A few small, isolated showers have formed this afternoon, mostly south and east of Birmingham.

These showers will end soon after sunset, and most high school football stadiums won’t have any rain issues tonight.

Birmingham reports 86 degrees at 2:00… looks like today will be the 13th consecutive day with a high under 90 degrees.

THE WEEKEND: Moisture levels will deepen, and we will mention scattered showers and thunderstorms tomorrow and Sunday with a mix of sun and clouds both days. While most of the showers will come during the afternoon and evening hours, we can’t rule out a late night or morning shower or two. Highs over the weekend will be mostly in the mid 80s.

NEXT WEEK: We expect only widely scattered showers Monday through Wednesday with partly sunny days and highs between 87 and 90 degrees. The 12Z GFS hints that showers and storms could become more numerous by Thursday and Friday with deeper moisture.

ERIKA: The tropical storm, just south of Hispaniola, remains very disorganized this afternoon.

With continued wind shear, and interaction with the mountainous island, there is a very real chance that Erika won’t survive the next 12 hours.

If it does hang on, the ultimate track will be determined by it’s strength. If the system can get it’s act together and become better organized, it should turn northward into the Florida Peninsula by Monday, staying below hurricane strength (which is the official NHC track).

If the system remains a closed low, but stays weak and disorganized, the low level swirl will move into the Gulf of Mexico. There, the system will encounter 30 to 40 knots of deep layer shear, meaning it will most likely dissipate without bothering anyone.

One way or another this, most likely, won’t be an issue for Alabama. Here is the latest NHC track.

We will keep an close eye on it over the weekend, of course.

GULF COAST WEATHER: We are projecting about 6 to 8 hours of sunshine each day from Panama City Beach to Gulf Shores through early next week with a few scattered storms possible; highs on the coast will be in the upper 80s, with sea water temperatures in the mid 80s.

A little early for a specific Labor Day weekend forecast, but for now we don’t see anything to suggest high rain coverage. No signs of any tropical issues.

See the complete Gulf Coast 7 Day Planner here. The Gulf Coast Beach Forecast is presented by Gulf Shores Plantation by Mandoki Hospitality Vacation Rentals. Escape to Gulf Shores Plantation where memories last a lifetime.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

Brian Peters will have the video updates tomorrow and Sunday… my next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here bright and early Monday morning by 7:00. Enjoy the weekend!

Categories: Weather

Good News About Our State from Our Friends at Alabama NewsCenter

2 hours 48 sec ago

Here are some of our favorite stories from our partners at Alabama NewsCenter from this past week, August 21 – 27, 2015.

Can’t Miss Alabama: This week’s summertime favorites include jazz, expos and a film festival – Here’s a look at the hottest happenings across the state this weekend.

 

Sidewalk Film Festival’s 17th year more diverse, local at same time – Films from more than two dozen countries join large Alabama-produced slate.

 

Homewood restaurant owners turn Katrina tragedy into triumph – A decade after hurricane, couple finds recipe for recovery in Alabama.

 

Katrina took her home in Mississippi, now she sells them in Birmingham – “I realize how hard it is to lose everything and not have a home of your own.” – Pye Parson

 

Blown from New Orleans by Katrina, family puts down roots in Alabama’s Wiregrass – Harolyn Benjamin went from helping others to being helped and is now helping others again.

 

Jasper couple left New Orleans, but the city has never left them – Kilgores now share a taste of Louisiana through Black Rock Bistro.

 

Regions Field attendance tops 400,000 for second straight season – Barons reach milestone in consecutive seasons for first time in more than 60 years.

 

Alabama Bright Lights: Curtis Saucier pays the love forward – “God gives special kids to special people.” – Curtis Saucier.

 

Russellville rocket team sets sights on NASA Student Launch program – Victory fuels the desire to compete in another major competition.

 

Brighter Minds: “Raising the bar by raising your hand” – “Education is the key to opening every door.” Margaret Morton, Sylacauga Alliance for Family Enhancement

 

Motley: Changing the trajectory of education in Alabama requires engagement – Aspen Institute leader knows the importance of support.

 

How Alabama is matching workforce needs with state education – “Alabama business and industry have spoken and they’ve spoken loudly.” – Dr. Philip Cleveland

 

Playing it SAFE for Alabama families and education – Margaret Morton believes workforce development lies in family development.

 

100 dishes to eat in Alabama before you die: Irondale Café – Check out this tasty Southern side dish featured this week.

 

Alabama Power Foundation accepting Students to Stewards grant applications – Program supports conservation education across Alabama.

 

Alabama Road Trips: On the trail of the pig – Alabama’s historic barbecue restaurants – Alabama “Q” has been around since the 1890s, but it’s never been bigger.

http://alabamanewscenter.com/2015/08/24/alabama-road-trips-on-the-trail-of-the-pig-alabamas-

 

Southern Company/AGL Resources deal would create leading U.S. joint electricity-natural gas utility – Purchase is Alabama Power parent’s largest energy diversification acquisition.

 

Mercedes won’t exit Saints stadium pact with new Falcons deal – Automaker set to sponsor rivals’ venues in New Orleans and Atlanta.

 

Montgomery area children take in trick golf shots, First Tee values – Alabama Power Junior Clinic teaches while entertaining.

 

Women urged at Mobile forum to ‘step off that cliff’ – Shattering the Glass Ceiling encourages and challenges Alabama women.

 

Yokohama Tire LPGA Classic tees off with ‘extremely strong’ field – Top women in golf playing today through Sunday in Alabama.

 

Murphy vs. Baker among Alabama NewsCenter’s top high school football match-ups this week – A look at some Alabama high school football games you may want to take in this week.

Categories: Weather

Mt. Cheaha NOAA Wx Radio Down

3 hours 31 min ago

At 1:09 pm the National Weather Service in Birmingham sent out a Public Information Statement to advise weather radio listeners in East Central Alabama that the NOAA Weather Radio broadcasting on 146.475 MHz from an antenna on Mt. Cheaha will be off the air for scheduled maintenance this afternoon.

Fortunately, there does not appear to be any serious weather to be concerned about. Alternatives include the Oneonta transmitter on 162.425 MHz or the Birmingham transmitter on 162.550 MHz.

I’ve included the full text of the message below.

-Brian-

NOUS44 KBMX 281809 PNSBMX ALZ011>015-017>050-290615- PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 109 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015 ...ANNISTON NOAA WEATHER RADIO WILL BE OFF THE AIR... THE ANNISTON NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.475 MHZ...WILL BE OFF THE AIR FOR SCHEDULED MAINTENANCE THIS AFTERNOON. DURING THIS TIME FRAME THE RADIO MAY EXPERIENCE PERIODIC OUTAGES. THE TECHNICIANS WILL WORK AS QUICKLY AS POSSIBLE TO COMPLETE THE WORK AND GET THE AUDIO BACK UP AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. IN THE MEANTIME...PLEASE TUNE TO LOCAL MEDIA AND COMMERCIAL RADIO FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION. BACKUP NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTERS ARE: ONEONTA...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.425 MHZ...AND BIRMINGHAM...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.550 MHZ. KEEP IN MIND THAT NOT ALL BACKUP TRANSMITTERS WILL TONE FOR YOUR SPECIFIC COUNTY...SO PLEASE STAY WEATHER AWARE DURING THE OUTAGE. THANK YOU FOR YOUR PATIENCE. WE APOLOGIZE FOR ANY INCONVENIENCE THIS OUTAGE MAY CAUSE. $$
Categories: Weather

Moisture Levels Rising

10 hours 24 min ago

ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY: Temperatures are mostly in the 60s early this morning across the great state of Alabama, and we see nothing on radar. Today will be partly sunny, and the latest high resolution model data suggests a few widely scattered showers could break out this afternoon. The chance of any one spot getting wet is about one in five, and the high this afternoon will be in the 87 to 90 degree range.

HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL WEATHER: Most of the stadiums will be dry tonight, although a few could see a brief shower during the first half. Temperatures will fall from near 80 degrees at kickoff, into the mid 70s by the final whistle.

OUR WEEKEND: Moisture levels will continue to rise, and we will have scattered showers and thunderstorms around tomorrow and Sunday with a mix of sun and clouds. While the best chance of a shower or storm will come during the afternoon and evening hours, we can’t totally rule out a late night or morning shower. Highs will be generally in the mid 80s.

NEXT WEEK: Our weather is looking relatively quiet; for now we will mention only widely scattered afternoon showers Monday through Wednesday, with highs in the 87 to 90 degree range along with partly sunny days and mostly fair nights. Tropical Storm Erika could bring some rain to far Southeast Alabama, but for now the impact on the northern half of the state seems to be insignificant.

EYES ON ERIKA: The tropical storm just south of Puerto Rico looks very disorganized this morning. The circulation center remains displaced from the convection due to wind shear, and today the system will have to move over the mountainous island of Hispaniola. There is a very real chance this thing could dissipate over the next 24 hours, much like Danny last week.

If the system survives, it seems to be headed for the Florida. With a weaker system, models continue to trend to the left, and now the official NHC track brings Erika through the Florida Peninsula as a tropical storm early next week. It doesn’t make much sense to really focus on the “center line”, since the convection could still be removed from the center. Hopefully this will bring some drought relief to Central and South Florida without many other problems.

Understand there is still a good bit of uncertainty in this forecast… take some time to watch the Weather Xtreme video for all the maps and graphics associated with Erika, along with more thoughts on the ultimate destination.

GULF COAST WEATHER: We will forecast about 6 to 8 hours of sunshine through early next week from Panama City Beach west to Gulf Shores, with a few widely scattered storms. Highs will be in the upper 80s on the immediate coast, and sea water temperatures remain mostly in the mid 80s.

Still a little too early for a specific Labor Day weekend forecast on the Gulf Coast. A good chance Erika will have dissipated by then, and otherwise I don’t see any reason for serious rain problems for now. See the complete Gulf Coast 7 Day Planner here. The Gulf Coast Beach Forecast is presented by Gulf Shores Plantation by Mandoki Hospitality Vacation Rentals. Escape to Gulf Shores Plantation where memories last a lifetime.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Scroll down for the show notes on the special we did last night on the 10th anniversary of Hurricane Katrina.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

I will be traveling today, so just one Weather Xtreme video, but I will post some forecast notes later this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Categories: Weather

WeatherBrains 501: Brushing My Tongue

11 hours 53 min ago

WeatherBrains Episode 501 is now online (August 27, 2015). If you are crazy about weather, this is THE netcast audio program for you!

Tonight’s Guest WeatherBrain #1 is a show alum and one of the leading tropical experts in the world. He is an Associate Professor in the Meteorology Department at the University of South Alabama, Mobile, AL, and is part of the Coastal Weather Research Center. As a meteorologist, he achieved the rank of Major in the Air Force and Lt. Colonel in the Air Force Reserve. He was the Director of Meteorology at the Air Force Academy. Dr. Keith Blackwell, welcome back to WeatherBrains.

Tonight’s 2nd Guest WeatherBrain began his NWS career in Slidell, LA. After stops in Corpus Christi, Birmingham, Fort Worth, and NWS Headquarters, he is now back in Slidell, LA, as the Meteorologist in Charge. Ken Graham, welcome back to the show!

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

  • Extremes: 118 at Death Valley, CA, and 32 at Stanley, ID, and Baraga Plains, MI
  • Tropical storm Erika passing Puerto Rico
  • Potential for storm to affect Florida
  • Fairly mild temperatures across the Continental US
  • and more!

Aubrey will be back in the next show to handle the incoming mail.

Listener Surveys: Okay, we continue to drive this topic into the ground, but we really do like to hear from you. Many thanks to everyone who has taken the time to fill out the Listener Survey. The survey takes just a minute or two to complete and provides us with an opportunity to learn where you are and hear your thoughts and comments on the show. Click here to take the survey.

Web Sites from This Episode:

NOAA Natural Disaster Survey Report

If you want information on Katrina, just perform a search using your favorite search engine; you’ll get many!

Dr. Scala’s article for the Capital Weather Gang

To subscribe to the brand new SkyWritings, an email newsletter from the WeatherBrains gang, click HERE.

Picks of the Week:

No Picks in this Special

The WeatherBrains crew includes your host, James Spann, plus other notable geeks like Nate Johnson, Bill Murray, Aubrey Urbanowicz, Dr. John Scala, Rick Smith, Kevin Selle, and Brian Peters. They bring together a wealth of weather knowledge and experience for another fascinating netcast about weather.

Categories: Weather

One More Dry Day For Alabama

Thu, 08/27/2015 - 15:43

ANOTHER PLEASANT AUGUST DAY: With a good supply of sunshine, temperatures are mostly in the mid 80s across the great state of Alabama this afternoon, and again there is no rain on radar. Today is the 12th consecutive day with a high under 90 (at Birmingham), and fourth consecutive day with no rain.

We stay dry tomorrow… the sky will be partly to mostly sunny with a high close to 90 in most places.

THE WEEKEND: Moisture levels will rise, and we will mention the risk of scattered showers and thunderstorms both Saturday and Sunday. Otherwise, expect a mix of sun and clouds with a high in the mid 80s. Chance of any one spot getting wet both days is about one in three; best chance of showers will come during the afternoon and evening hours, but we can’t rule out a late night or morning shower as well.

NEXT WEEK: While eyes will be on potential Hurricane Erika just off the South Atlantic Coast of the U.S., our weather looks relatively quiet, with partly sunny days, fair nights, and only widely scattered showers. Highs next week will be in the 88 to 91 degree range, about average for the end of August in Alabama.

CHALLENING TROPICAL FORECAST: We have more questions than answers with Tropical Storm Erika this afternoon. Convection is now displaced well to the east of the circulation center due to wind shear, and NHC estimates maximum sustained winds at 45 mph. Also, the center has reformed farther to the south, putting computer model data into question due to poor initialization.

Strengthening is not expected for the next three days due to shear, and interaction with Hispaniola. In fact, it is not totally out of the question that Erika dissipates like Danny last week. But, there is a pretty good chance it survives, and conditions will favor strengthening by Sunday and Monday. The official NHC track has been adjusted slightly to the left, putting Erika near the Florida Atlantic Coast Monday as a category one hurricane.

Odds are still high this won’t be a Gulf of Mexico storm, but the chance is not zero. Overall forecast confidence is low, and expect changes in coming days. Everyone from the Florida Peninsula up to the North Carolina Outer Banks will need to keep an eye on this one.

GULF COAST WEATHER: Mostly sunny weather continues tomorrow from Gulf Shores west to Panama City Beach; then for the weekend expect about 6 to 8 hours of sunshine both days with potential for a few scattered thunderstorms. A little too early for a specific Labor Day weekend forecast, but at the moment we don’t see anything that would suggest significant problems.

See the complete Gulf Coast 7 Day Planner here. The Gulf Coast Beach Forecast is presented by Gulf Shores Plantation by Mandoki Hospitality Vacation Rentals. Escape to Gulf Shores Plantation where memories last a lifetime.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will have a special Hurricane Katrina 10th Anniversary special tonight at 8:30 CT… you can watch it on “James Spann 24/7” on cable systems around the state, or on the web here.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Categories: Weather

Slow Warming Trend Ahead

Thu, 08/27/2015 - 06:19

SLOW WARM-UP: Another delightful morning; Vic Bell up at Black Creek reports 54 degrees, many of the cooler pockets across North Alabama are between 53 and 58 for another nice taste of fall. Expect another sunny day today with a high in the mid 80s; the humidity will stay low. We stay dry tomorrow with a high in the upper 80s, and a few spots could touch 90. Keep in mind today is the 12th consecutive day with a high below 90 degrees in Birmingham.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Moisture levels rise, and we will need to mention a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms both days. Not a wash-out, but keep in mind you will have to dodge an occasional passing shower or storm Saturday and Sunday. Otherwise, days will feature a mix of sun and clouds with highs in the mid 80s.

NEXT WEEK: A decent chance we get into the subsidence ring surrounding what should be Hurricane Erika, meaning showers will be few and far between. Partly sunny days, fair nights, and highs in the 87 to 90 degree range most afternoons.

ERIKA: The tropical storm near the Leeward Islands is getting stronger and better organized this morning; maximum sustained winds are now estimated to be 50 mph.

The system is expected to move through the Bahamas over the weekend, then reaching hurricane strength just off the Florida Atlantic Coast Monday.

It is important to note that this forecast track can, and probably will change, so all interests in the Florida Peninsula up through the coast of the Carolinas need to keep a close eye on this. We are very confident this will not be a Gulf of Mexico storm, and there will be no direct impact on Alabama (we stay on the dry side). See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

AT THE BEACH: Mostly sunny weather continues today and tomorrow along the coast from Panama City Beach west to Gulf Shores with only a slight risk of a shower. Then, for the weekend, about 6 to 8 hours of sun Saturday and Sunday with a passing storm possible from time to time. Highs on the coast will stay in the 80s, and sea water temperatures remain mostly in the mid 80s.

Erika will have no impact on the Central Gulf Coast. See the complete Gulf Coast 7 Day Planner here. The Gulf Coast Beach Forecast is presented by Gulf Shores Plantation by Mandoki Hospitality Vacation Rentals. Escape to Gulf Shores Plantation where memories last a lifetime.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce a special on the 10th anniversary of Hurricane Katrina tonight at 8:30 CT… you can watch it on “James Spann 24/7” on cable systems around the state, or on the web here.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

I will be the emcee of a fundraiser today for the Leukemia & Lymphoma Society in Birmingham… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Categories: Weather

Humidity Levels Rise Late This Week

Wed, 08/26/2015 - 15:32

AS NICE AS IT GETS: Feels more like early October across Alabama today; a sunny sky, low humidity, and temperatures about 10 degrees below average. Some spots, like Cullman and Haleyville, didn’t get out of the 70s today, with low 80s for Birmingham.

Tonight will be very pleasant with a clear sky; we will forecast a low near 60 early tomorrow, but cooler pockets will easily visit the 50s again.

TOMORROW/FRIDAY: Mostly sunny weather continues with a slow warming trend; we expect a high in the mid 80s tomorrow, and upper 80s Friday. Humidity levels will begin to rise Friday making it feel more like August again.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Moisture will continue to increase from the east, and we will forecast a mix of sun and clouds Saturday and Sunday with some risk of scattered showers and storms. The best chance of showers will come during the afternoon and evening hours, and the highest coverage should be on the eastern side of the state. Afternoon highs over the weekend will be mostly in the upper 80s.

NEXT WEEK: Looks fairly quiet; just a few widely scattered showers each afternoon, with partly sunny days and highs close to 90 degrees. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

EYES ON ERIKA: Tropical Storm Erika is packing sustained winds of 45 mph this afternoon as it approaches the northern Leeward Islands. It will move over Puerto Rico tomorrow with potential for beneficial rain, and then on to the Bahamas Friday and Saturday. The system is expected to remain a tropical storm through Sunday, but a number of computer models indicate the chance of strengthening after passing longitude 75W.

The official forecast from NHC brings Erika into Southeast Florida, not too far from Miami, Monday morning as a category one hurricane.

We do note the 18Z models have shifted a bit to the right, and there is a real chance that Erika could turn northward before making landfall in Florida.

There remains a good bit of uncertainty in the forecast, but those that live in the Florida Peninsula need to keep up with the latest forecasts. It is unlikely that Erika gets into the Gulf of Mexico, but we can’t totally rule that out. Again, see the Weather Xtreme video for maps and graphics.

AT THE BEACH: Very nice weather continues with mostly sunny days and fair nights on the Gulf Coast from Gulf Shores west to Panama City Beach through the weekend… just a few isolated storms around. Highs will be in the upper 80s, and sea water temperatures are mostly in the mid 80s. See the complete Gulf Coast 7 Day Planner here. The Gulf Coast Beach Forecast is presented by Gulf Shores Plantation by Mandoki Hospitality Vacation Rentals. Escape to Gulf Shores Plantation where memories last a lifetime.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Categories: Weather

Feels Like October

Wed, 08/26/2015 - 06:30

REFRESHING MORNING: Here are some temperatures across the great state of Alabama at daybreak…

Fort Payne 50
Valley Head 50
Black Creek 51
Cullman 52
Sycamore 53
Concord 54
Anniston 56
Fayette 56
Center Point & Helena 57
Birmingham 59
Tuscaloosa 61

Tuscaloosa’s official low was 59 this morning, which ties the record low for August 26, set in 1966.

Expect another delightful day, with a sunny sky, low humidity, and below average temperatures. The high today will be in the low to mid 80s.

TOMORROW/FRIDAY: We stay dry with ample sunshine both days and a slow warming trend; we will see a high by Friday in the 87 to 90 degree range.

THE WEEKEND: Moisture will slowly increase from the east, and we will mention some risk of scattered showers Saturday and Sunday. Best chance of a shower will come over the eastern half of the state, and highs will remain in the 87 to 90 degree range. Not rainy weekend at all, but just understand a passing shower is possible from time to time, especially east of I-65.

NEXT WEEK: The weather looks relatively quiet; any showers during the week should be widely scattered, and afternoons will be hotter with highs close to 90 degrees as we begin meteorological fall Tuesday. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

ERIKA: The tropical storm in the Atlantic will move over the northern Leeward Islands tonight, and should bring beneficial rain to Puerto Rico tomorrow. The system is weak and not well organized; maximum sustained winds are only 40 mph this morning.

Erika is fighting the same environmental setup Danny dealt with last week; dry air and shear. If the system survives, conditions will be much more favorable for strengthening late this weekend as Erika moves through the Bahamas, and NHC brings it up to hurricane strength Sunday night as it nears Southeast Florida…

It is important note that steering currents will be weak in five days, and this forecast could change easily in coming days. Here is a look at the GEFS ensemble guidance. The mean is the line with the black boxes…

Note some members take Erika in to the far eastern Gulf of Mexico, while others recurve the system before reaching the U.S. It is simply too early to make a call on the final destination, and the potential impact on Florida and the U.S. mainland. But, those that live in the Florida Peninsula will need to keep a very close eye on Erika in coming days, and keep up with the latest forecasts.

The rest of the Atlantic basin is quiet.

AT THE BEACH: The Central Gulf Coast looks good through the weekend, with mostly sunny days, fair nights, and only isolated showers or storms. Highs on the coast will be in the upper 80s, and the sea water temperature early this morning at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab is 82 degrees. See the complete Gulf Coast 7 Day Planner here. The Gulf Coast Beach Forecast is presented by Gulf Shores Plantation by Mandoki Hospitality Vacation Rentals. Escape to Gulf Shores Plantation where memories last a lifetime.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

I will be doing a safety program for ALAGASCO employees in Anniston today… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Categories: Weather

Weather Apps And Other Things

Tue, 08/25/2015 - 17:00

I think most of you know by now the “James Spann 24/7” weather app is in the process of being replaced by a new app that will be offered by ABC 33/40; this will have all the functionality of the old app, along with our news and sports content. Basically a “one stop shop” so you don’t have to have multiple apps on your phone or tablet.

The new app is not available yet, but hopefully it will hit the app stores within the next 7 days. Of course, it will be free.

I was very excited to offer the “James Spann 24/7” app since it was all human powered. Real weather discussion written by real meteorologists that explain the weather. It basically offered all of my products and services on one place. These blog posts, the Weather Xtreme video, WeatherBrains, and much more. All of these elements will be in the new app… thanks for your patience.

Some so many of you are asking about weather sources, apps, etc these days… here are some thoughts that might help.

WEATHER INFORMATION IS A COMMODITY: You can get a weather forecast anywhere these days. I have seen weather forecasts on everything from furniture store apps to political candidate web sites. Weather apps by the thousands are available on your “app store”, and most of them don’t cost a dime. While this sounds great, the problem is accuracy and dependability.

The stock weather app on your phone, and almost all other weather apps and web sites, generate automated forecasts using raw computer “model output statistics”. Not one professional meteorologist (and, in most cases, not one human) reviews the forecasts before they are made available. And, boy, can these automated forecasts steer you wrong.

Here is a screen grab from a weather app earlier this summer…

And, most of these “forecasts” show a nice little icon of the weather (sun, storm, clouds, etc), and three numbers. High, low, and “probability of precipitation”. While this works on some days, on really active weather days it is of no help. You have no idea if there is a severe weather threat, the amount of rain or precipitation expected, timing, and placement.

Many of you know our frustration, and we often call these “crap apps”. Trust me, I fully understand very few people wait on the television news to come on to get a weather update, and I am delighted to offer round the clock weather products at your convenience. No, I don’t get much sleep, but it is a delight to be able to offer weather products and services at all hours of the day and night since that is my passion in life.

WHAT TO LOOK FOR: You need to get weather information from a source that offers content put together by a real meteorologist, that understands the people, culture, and geography of your home state. A written discussion that goes beyond the little cartoon pictures of weather, that is updated frequently. And, preferably a video that explains what to expect and doesn’t treat you like an idiot. If you app features videos that tell you to go into an air conditioned room during hot weather, you might look elsewhere.

RECOMMENDED SOURCES/APPS: So, what apps do I need? Which ones are reliable? Here are some suggestions…

THIS BLOG: If you are reading this, then we are preaching to the choir. The Alabamawx.com blog is unique, and a strong source for Alabama weather information. Yes, we get it wrong sometimes. But, our short term (48 hour) accuracy is in the 92-95 percent category. And, when I miss the big one, I am open and honest.

There are seven meteorologists who write here, with over 100 years combined weather experience in Alabama. The Weather Xtreme video is posted twice daily weekdays, and once daily weekends.

If you live outside Alabama…. do your best to find a similar source.

ABC 33/40 APP: When the new version is released, you should be able to get all of our human powered weather information there, including blog posts and the Weather Xtreme video. It will be free, and available on iOS and Android. I will let you know when it is released into the wild.

WARNING APPS: Getting severe weather warnings is extremely important. Yes, the built in “WEA”… or wireless emergency alert system seems to work well for flash flood and tornado warnings, but we really don’t know how that works, and we really don’t know the reliability. My favorite warnings apps are “WeatherRadio by WDT”, and “MyWarn”. I have no financial interest in either app, and they both work very well. Your generic, free weather app won’t do this well.

RADAR APP: RadarScope is the winner by far. They offer a version for iOS, Android, and OS X (Apple computers). And, you can get radar with this on your Apple Watch. And yes, I love it. And, over on the Windows side, the Gibson Ridge radar software is excellent.

LIGHTNING APP: I use BoltMeter, but for some reason that is not available now within the US app stores. I have purchased the lightning add-on within “WeatherRadio by WDT” which offers real time lightning data, and alerts are well. This is a critical function for outdoor events, especially on summer afternoons. RadarScope offers real time lightning data as well for a small price.

Have suggestions? List them in the comment section.

The one thing I try and do is be available to answer your weather questions. I don’t have a 15 minute chat session we advertise on TV… I am around most hours of the day and night. Best way of getting me is social media…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

My personal email is here… and I respond quickly. The only thing I don’t do is a phone call; I have not answered my work phone since 1998. Too much time consumption.

Your pictures and reports are so helpful, and I thank all for engaging with me in the new digital world. And again, I will let you know the minute the new ABC 33/40 app is available…

Categories: Weather

Cool Summer Night Ahead

Tue, 08/25/2015 - 15:42

FALL PREVIEW: What a delightful day; this is as nice as it gets in August in Alabama. Blue sky, sunshine, low humidity, and excellent visibility. Temperatures are in the low to mid 80s, and not a single shower in the entire state.

Photo below is from @objectivityrach, taken this afternoon in downtown Birmingham.

Many communities will drop into the 50s early tomorrow for a very nice taste of fall; Birmingham’s record low for August 26 is 55 set in 1966… we will probably miss it be a couple of degrees.

REST OF THE WEEK: We stay dry through Friday, with sunny days and clear pleasant nights. Highs hold in the mid 80s tomorrow and Thursday, followed by upper 80s Friday. Humidity levels will also begin to creep up by the end of the week; we all know that “sticky” feeling will be back.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Most of the state should stay dry Saturday, although a few showers could show up near the Georgia border, over the far eastern side of the state, where moisture levels will rise. Then, there will be risk of scattered showers statewide Sunday with a mix of sun and clouds. Highs over the weekend will be in the 87 to 90 degree range.

Today is the 10th consecutive day with a high under 90 degrees for Birmingham… will be interesting to see if we can finally rise back to 90 at some point over the weekend.

NEXT WEEK: Some risk of widely scattered showers during the first half of the week, otherwise partly sunny days with a high close to 90; see the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

AT THE BEACH: Mostly sunny days and fair nights with only isolated showers from Panama City Beach west to Gulf Shores through the weekend. Highs in the upper 80s on the coast, with sea water temperatures in the mid 80s. See the complete Gulf Coast 7 Day Planner here. The Gulf Coast Beach Forecast is presented by Gulf Shores Plantation by Mandoki Hospitality Vacation Rentals. Escape to Gulf Shores Plantation where memories last a lifetime.

TOPIC: TROPICS: Tropical Storm Erika is packing sustained winds of 45 mph, and will be near the northern Leeward Islands Thursday. A decent chance this becomes a hurricane over the Bahamas early next week; it remains to be seen if this will impact the U.S. Atlantic Coast. Just too early to call for now.

For now odds are low that this will be a Gulf of Mexico storm.

Elsewhere, a tropical wave will emerge off the coast of Africa tomorrow, and some slow development is possible over the next few days.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Categories: Weather

Nice Touch Of Fall

Tue, 08/25/2015 - 06:29

COOL AUGUST MORNING: Temperatures have dropped into the 50s over the northern third of Alabama early this morning…

Today promises to be a delightful day for August, with a good supply of sunshine, lower humidity, and below average temperatures. Most communities will see a high in the mid 80s today, places around the Tennessee border might hold in the 70s all day despite a sunny sky.

TONIGHT: It will be the coolest night of the week, we project upper 50s as far south as Birmingham, and some of the cooler pockets across North Alabama could see low to mid 50s. Birmingham’s record low for August 26 is 55 degrees set in 1966… we probably won’t break that, but we will be close.

REST OF THE WEEK: We stay dry tomorrow through Friday, with sunny days, and clear pleasant nights. Dry air means no afternoon showers; highs will be in the mid 80s tomorrow and Thursday, upper 80s Friday.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Moisture will begin to creep into the state from the east. While most of Alabama will be dry Saturday, we will mention some risk of a shower near the Georgia border. Then, on Sunday, there will be some risk of scattered showers statewide with a few cloudy periods. Highs over the weekend will be in the 87 to 90 degree range.

Birmingham has now gone 9 consecutive days with a high below 90 degrees, and that streak continues at least through Friday.

NEXT WEEK: A few scattered, mostly afternoon showers are possible early in the week, with a high close to 90 degrees as we begin meteorological fall Tuesday. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

AT THE BEACH: Mostly sunny days, fair nights through the weekend with only isolated storms around from Panama City Beach west to Gulf Shores. Highs in the upper 80s, sea water temperatures in the mid 80s. See the complete Gulf Coast 7 Day Planner here. The Gulf Coast Beach Forecast is presented by Gulf Shores Plantation by Mandoki Hospitality Vacation Rentals. Escape to Gulf Shores Plantation where memories last a lifetime.

ERIKA IS ON THE BOARD: Tropical Storm Erika will move west/northwest in coming days, with the chance of the system becoming a category one hurricane by the time it reaches the Southeast Bahamas this weekend.

Long range ensemble guidance suggests the most likely scenario is that Erika recurves just off the East Coast of the U.S…. but understand that is not a lock at this stage of the game.

One way or another this doesn’t look like a Gulf of Mexico system. The rest of the Atlantic basin is pretty quiet; a weak wave near the Cape Verde Islands is not expected to develop.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We produced show number 500 last night… scroll down for the show notes.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

I will be speaking today in Walker County at Cordova Health and Rehabilitation… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Categories: Weather

WeatherBrains 500: Takes His Hat off for More than One Reason

Tue, 08/25/2015 - 05:15

WeatherBrains Episode 500 is now online (August 31, 2015). If you are crazy about weather, this is THE netcast audio program for you!

The tables are turned on the WeatherBrains crew with Bruce Thomas holding down the role of host and firing the questions.

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

  • Extremes: 118 at Death Valley, CA, and 28 at West Yellowstone, MT
  • Danny Dying in the Northern Leeward Islands
  • Atlantic basin more active with Danny and two other potential systems
  • Tropical Storm Erika has formed in the Atlantic Basin
  • Astronomy Outlook with Tony Rice
  • and more!

Our email bag officer is continuing to handle the incoming messages from our listeners.

From The Weather Center:

WeatherBrains 101: Our guest WeatherBrain two weeks mentioned storm surge and how it is often overlooked as being deadly. This prompted a little research on the topic from the helpful archives of the National Hurricane Center. And this will be the second of three episodes on storm surge. This episode we look at some of the variables that make the storm surge different from storm to storm.

Listener Surveys: Okay, we continue to drive this topic into the ground, but we really do like to hear from you. Many thanks to everyone who has taken the time to fill out the Listener Survey. The survey takes just a minute or two to complete and provides us with an opportunity to learn where you are and hear your thoughts and comments on the show. Click here to take the survey.

Web Sites from Episode 500:

Tribute to JB Elliott

To subscribe to the brand new SkyWritings, an email newsletter from the WeatherBrains gang, click HERE.

Picks of the Week:

Nate Johnson – Interpreting Tropical “Spaghetti Model” Plots

Bill Murray – Gets the honorary foghorn

Brian Peters – Hurricane Hunters web page

John Scala – NASA to Build Hurricane-Probing Micro-Satellite Fleet

Kevin Selle – Cooling Off

Rick Smith – Agenda for the NWA’s 40th Annual Meeting

James Spann – NOAAVIEW Data Exploration Tool

SkyDavers Blog – The Fog Bank

Aubrey Urbanowicz – World Weather Forecast and Climate History

The WeatherBrains crew includes your host, James Spann, plus other notable geeks like Nate Johnson, Bill Murray, Aubrey Urbanowicz, Dr. John Scala, Rick Smith, Kevin Selle, and Brian Peters. They bring together a wealth of weather knowledge and experience for another fascinating netcast about weather.

Categories: Weather

Erika Forms

Mon, 08/24/2015 - 23:23

The NHC has named the system in the Central Atlantic about 950 miles east of the Leeward Islands tonight. It is Tropical Storm Erika.

Here are the Fast Facts on Erika:
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…14.4N 47.7W
ABOUT 955 MI…1535 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 275 DEGREES AT 20 MPH…31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1003 MB…29.62 INCHES

Erika is in a favorable environment for intensification with an envelope of moisture, low shear and warm water. That should continue for at least 48 hours before it encounters some shear. It is expected to become a strong tropical storm, but could become a hurricane, as depicted by the HWRF model.

There is some uncertainty in track, but there is a good chance this could affect the United States. If it is weaker, it could be shunted south toward the Gulf of Mexico. A stronger storm would be pulled further north and could be near the Bahamas by the end of the wekeend, with a threat to the East Coast.

Erika will be interesting to watch.

Danny dissipated this morning as expected over the northern Leeward Islands.

Categories: Weather

Cooler, Drier Air Arrives Tonight

Mon, 08/24/2015 - 15:35

ON THE MAPS: At mid-afternoon a cold front is lined up from near Athens to Vernon… you can pick it out by the northern edge of the cumulus field across Alabama…

A few scattered storms have formed ahead of the front, best chance of them this evening will be over the southern half of the state. Temperatures are mostly in the 80s; today is the ninth consecutive day with a high below 90 for Birmingham.

REST OF THE WEEK: Some delightful weather for our state thanks to dry, continental air moving in from the north. We project sunny days, lower humidity levels, and cooler nights; highs will be mostly in the mid 80s, with lows in the 57-62 degree range most mornings through Thursday. Cooler pockets could very well see low to mid 50s early Wednesday for a very nice fall preview.

Friday will be another mostly sunny day with a high in the upper 80s.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Moisture from the Atlantic will cover Georgia and South Carolina, but for most of the state we believe Saturday will be dry with a partly sunny sky and a high in the upper 80s. A few showers could show up Saturday afternoon over far East Alabama around U.S. 431.

Then, Sunday, the latest run of the GFS pushes the moisture into our state from the east, and we will need to introduce the risk of scattered showers, but not an “all day” kind of rain. The high Sunday afternoon will be in the mid to upper 80s.

NEXT WEEK: Looks like afternoon highs will be close to 90, with some risk of scattered showers during the first half of the week. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

GULF COAST WEATHER: Looks very nice through the week with mostly sunny days, fair nights, and only widely scattered thunderstorms. Highs will be in the 80s, and sea water temperatures are mostly in the mid 80s. See the complete Gulf Coast 7 Day Planner here. The Gulf Coast Beach Forecast is presented by Gulf Shores Plantation by Mandoki Hospitality Vacation Rentals. Escape to Gulf Shores Plantation where memories last a lifetime.

TROPICS: Danny dissipated near the Leeward Islands this morning, but a few wave in the Central Atlantic, about halfway between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles, will become a tropical depression at any time. Good chance this will be Tropical Storm Erika within 48 hours; for now long range model guidance suggests a recurvature path off the U.S. East Coast is the most likely scenario, but this could change.

Another wave over the far eastern Atlantic is not expected to strengthen anytime soon.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Tonight we produce show number 500… you can watch at 8:30 CT on “James Spann 24/7” on cable systems around the state, or on the web here.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Categories: Weather

Refreshing Airmass Arrives Tonight

Mon, 08/24/2015 - 06:24

COLD FRONT ON THE WAY: We will mention the risk of a few widely scattered showers and thunderstorms along that front this afternoon, but the air over Alabama is relatively dry and stable for August, so the showers should be pretty widely spaced, and many communities will be dry today. The high this afternoon will be in the 87 to 90 degree range, and the sky will be partly sunny.

Interesting to note that, in Birmingham, we have gone 8 consecutive days with a high under 90 degrees. Pretty amazing for August.

REST OF THE WEEK: A very nice preview of fall, with sunny days, lower humidity, and cooler nights. Highs drop into the mid 80s tomorrow though Thursday, with lows in the 58 to 62 degree range. Cooler pockets will drop down into the low to mid 50s early Wednesday morning. It will feel very refreshing. Friday will stay dry, with the high creeping up into the upper 80s.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Moisture will increase east of Alabama, with some risk of showers over Georgia and South Carolina, but around here we will keep the forecast generally dry, with highs around 90, and lows in the mid to upper 60s. A few showers could show up over far East Alabama Sunday afternoon.

NEXT WEEK: It will be warmer, with highs closer to 90 degrees as September begins. No sign of any big rain event… see the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

AT THE BEACH: Looking great this week; mostly sunny days, fair nights, and only isolated showers or storms from Gulf Shores west to Panama City Beach. Highs in the 80s; sea water temperatures in the mid 80s. See the complete Gulf Coast 7 Day Planner here. The Gulf Coast Beach Forecast is presented by Gulf Shores Plantation by Mandoki Hospitality Vacation Rentals. Escape to Gulf Shores Plantation where memories last a lifetime.

DANNY: Now, weakening tropical storm near the Leeward Islands, the system is expected to dissipate along the southern coast of Hispaniola Wednesday.

REST OF THE TROPICS: A well organized tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic (around 45W) has a good chance to become Tropical Storm Erika in coming days, but steering currents will likely turn this north, and then northeast into the open Atlantic without being a threat to the U.S. mainland.

There is one more wave being monitored southwest of the Cape Verde islands, but development is not expected there. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show tonight at 8:30p CT… it is show number 500! You can watch it on “James Spann 24/7” on cable systems around the state, or on the web here.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day!

Categories: Weather

I Think I Can, I Think I Can…

Sun, 08/23/2015 - 16:56

But I am afraid it probably can’t…

Danny made a bit of a comeback this morning according to satellite pictures, with an expanded circulation and a flare of convection around the center. But he rally was short lived, the short term effect of approaching shear that will eventually tear the storm apart, and the death rattle will begin soon.


Tropical storm warnings are in effect for Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla with tropical storm watches for Puerto Rico, the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and the rest of the northern Leeward Islands.

Danny will move across the islands of Guadeloupe and Antigua late tonight into Monday then across southern parts of Hispaniola by Tuesday night.

This should effectively knock the stuffing out of the little hurricane that could. It is yet to be seen whether the plucky little storm will be able to regenerate later this week as it moves a long the North Coast of Cuba. The smart money is on no for now.

BUT: Having said that, watch the system behind Danny. It will likely become Tropical Storm Erika this week, on a similar trajectory to Danny. The European does ramp this back up into a powerful storm as it moves through the Bahamas around September 1, but recurve it between the U.S. East Coast and Bermuda early that week.

Categories: Weather

Free Fall Preview This Week!

Sun, 08/23/2015 - 14:53

The upper level trough that was responsible for the showers and storms of late yesterday through early this morning is now over Alabama and some drier air is filtering in with it. Slight cooler air aloft is allowing stratocumulus clouds to form in the base of the trough, sort of like you would see in spring.

The upper level disturbance that brought the shake, rattle and roll to areas north of I-20 during the pre-dawn hours is over western South Carolina and southeastern Georgia at this hour. There have been a couple of severe thunderstorm warnings there, but no watches are anticipated.

Temperatures are in the middle 80s, with a few upper 80s where sunshine has been able to take more of a hold.

Temperatures will be the big story in coming days as a cool front brings us a real fall preview this week. That front will slice through the area tomorrow. A few showers and storms could develop along the front Monday afternoon. If they do manage to form, they could be strong. But they will be limited in number and coverage. Highs tomorrow will look a lot like today, mostly upper 80s to lower 90s.

Could I interest you in middle 80s for highs and lows near 60F, with several spots in the upper 50s for the middle of the work week? Well, you won’t have to twist my arm, since that is what is on the way weather wise across Central Alabama. Rain will be non-existent through the coming weekend. Great weather for high school football’s first big weekend and the fabulous Sidewalk Film Festival in downtown Birmingham next weekend. Don’t miss this world class event!

Categories: Weather

One Rain Band Exiting

Sun, 08/23/2015 - 09:10

But here comes another one.

The area of rain that moved through North Alabama early this morning – rattling some people out of bed with some loud thunder – has moved eastward into Georgia just before 9:00 am. But a new batch of storms with rain, thunder, and lightning has entered Northwest Alabama and will be traversing the northern half of the state for the next several hours.

As you can see from the visible satellite image centered on Montgomery, AL, there is the thick area of clouds over the northern half of Georgia. The clouds thin out a bit between that batch of clouds and the next batch coming into Northwest Alabama giving Central Alabama a touch of sunshine, though I note that temperatures have not gone up much. Temperatures in the second round of storms were sticking pretty close to the 70 to 75 degree range. I had a little sun at my house but the temperature only went up about 3 degrees.

The temperature forecast for Alabama locations today is going to be a trifle tricky! Areas that are getting the both rounds of storms this morning may not get out of the 70s while across South Alabama where there have been very few showers that area is likely to see highs into the upper 80s and lower 90s.

Rain-wise I recorded 43 hundredths of an inch in the first batch of storms just before sunrise. So far no additional rain in the bucket as some of the leading edge of rain area has been dissipating as it rolls into Jefferson County.

-Brian-

Categories: Weather

Humid Today but Drier, Cooler Air Coming

Sun, 08/23/2015 - 07:00

It was a dark and stormy morning! At least for many of the folks across the northern half of Alabama. Here’s a look at the radar from the Shelby County Airport just before 5:30 am. My location was on the southern edge of much of these storms, and my rain gauge picked up just under a half inch of rain.

A small short wave trough noted at 500 millibars will continue to traverse the area today keeping thunderstorms likely especially across the northern two thirds of Alabama. An isolated storm or two may be strong, however, I don’t see a widespread case for severe weather today with as much as the atmosphere has been worked over this morning. Clouds and the presence of storms should help to keep temperatures down from yesterday, so I expect to see highs in the middle to upper 80s today.

The closed low at 500 millibars over the western Great Lakes will dig into the Great Lakes area through Wednesday. A surface low associated with the upper low will move into Southeast Canada and drag a cold front through the Southeast US Monday and Tuesday. This should bring a pretty reasonable sample of Fall weather to Central Alabama with much drier air as dew points fall off into the 50s. The GFS MOS table even has 59 degrees for a low in Birmingham on Wednesday morning – now that is going to feel mighty nice. I would not be surprised to see some of this typically colder spots make it well down into the 50s.

The closed upper low just north of New York will open up on Thursday, but the trough pattern will stay in place all the way to the end of the month. We’ll be on the edge of the trough and the ridge so I expect temperatures to go back up close to our seasonal averages and the average high for late August in Birmingham is 90 degrees.

Beach goers can expect a fair amount of sunshine each day with about 4 to 6 hours for the start of the week rising to 7 to 9 by the middle of the week. A passing shower may interrupt your sunbathing, but the beaches from Dauphin Island all the way east to Panama City Beach will benefit from the cold front with lowered humidity and highs dipping back to the upper 80s. Sea water temperature still running in the lower 80s.

Danny continued to have everyone’s attention in the Atlantic Basin. Danny remained a rather compact storm and was downgraded to a tropical storm late yesterday and is likely to lose more of it’s punch as it moves into more hostile conditions which include some drier air and unfavorable wind shear. NHC is forecasting Danny to become a depression as it moves through the northern sections of the Leeward Islands and to dissipate shortly after passing the Dominican Republic on Wednesday or early Thursday. While Danny may lose some of its tropical characteristics, it could still bring heavy rain to the Bahamas and South Florida late in the week and into next weekend.

In spite of the weather pattern being so active, SPC only has a marginal risk area for severe storms delineated for today, Day 1, encompassing part of the Ohio River Valley and the Central Great Lakes.

Looking out into week 2 or voodoo country, the GFS promises a mixed bag with a combination of a substantial ridge along the eastern slope of the Rockies with a trough along the East Coast.

Thanks for using the Blog. James Spann will be back with the next edition of the Weather Xtreme Video on Monday morning.

-Brian-

Categories: Weather