ABC 33/40 Weather Blog
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS CANCELLED THE TORNADO WATCH FOR
THE FOLLOWING COUNTY
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF…ALICEVILLE AND CARROLLTON.
TORNADO WATCH REMAINS VALID UNTIL 2 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING
FOR THE FOLLOWING 8 COUNTIES
BLOUNT JEFFERSON WALKER WINSTON FAYETTE GREENE SUMTER
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF…BIRMINGHAM…EUTAW…FAYETTE…
TUSCALOOSA AND YORK.
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS CANCELLED THE TORNADO WATCH FOR
THE FOLLOWING 2 COUNTIES
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF…HAMILTON…SULLIGENT AND VERNON.
THE TORNADO WATCH REMAINS VALID UNTIL 2 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING
FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WHICH INCLUDES 9 COUNTIES
BLOUNT, JEFFERSON, WALKER, WINSTON, FAYETTE, GREENE, PICKENS
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF…ALICEVILLE…BIRMINGHAM…
LIVINGSTON…ONEONTA…TUSCALOOSA AND YORK.
Showers and storms continue to impact north-central Alabama tonight and will do so through the overnight hours.
The more intense activity is over our western counties and these storms are impacting locations from near Reform, to Fayette, to Double Springs. No storms are currently severe across the state, but there has been some areas of weak rotation and gusty winds within the line.
We are also watching some additional showers and storms develop ahead of the main line of storms.
The forward momentum of the line has slowed some, but the line is still continuing to move eastward. We could still see a few severe cells over the next few hours. With such slow movement and very heavy rainfall, we could see a threat of flash flooding through the overnight hours.
The line of thunderstorms over northwestern Alabama and eastern Mississippi has slowed its further progress and weakened tonight as the upper level dynamics associated with the system lift out across the Ohio Valley.
The line of storms is now over northwestern Marion County. It is about to enter northwestern Lamar County.
It is expected to continue slowly weakening across Central Alabama through the overnight hours. The storms may re-intensify Sunday afternoon over southeastern sections of the area.
Tornado watch continues until 2 a.m
We will continue to monitor the storms through the enter night and will have frequent updates and the latest from the affected areas.
Rain and storms may linger a good bit of the day across Middle Alabama. Putting the morning forecast together.
Emergency management in Coahoma County, MS reports there was a fatality late this afternoon when a movile home was overturned and slammed into a tree.
The incident occurred around 5:22 p.m. CST.
The good news is that there have been fewer severe weather reports in Mississippi over the past hour.
In fact, there haven’t been any reports into the NWS Jackson since nearly 7:30.
Across northern Mississippi, the NWS Memphis received a report of trees down in Lee County MS and a car blown off the road at 8:30.
Because of the lack of reports upstream and current radar trends, the NWS Birmingham has chosen not to issue a severe thunderstorm warning for Marion County. But if you are in Marion County, you can expect frequent lightning and wind gusts to 50 mph as well as heavy rain.
Our line of intense storms is now into Northwest Alabama’s Lauderdale County.
A severe thunderstorm warning is in effect for Colbert, Franklin and Lauderdale Counties.
The storms are now within 20 miles of western Marion County.
They have slowed a bit, now moving east at 20-25 mph. This will put them into northwestern Marion County just between 9:30 – 9:45.
Damage reports from northern and Mississippi have slowed down a bit. Radar indicates the storms might have weakened a tad.
A tornado watch is in effect for the northwestern third of Alabama until 2 a..m.
Tornado watch until 2 a.m.
BULLETIN – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 587
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
820 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2013
TORNADO WATCH 587 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CST FOR THE
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLOUNT COLBERT CULLMAN
DEKALB FAYETTE FRANKLIN
GREENE JACKSON JEFFERSON
LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE
LIMESTONE MADISON MARION
MARSHALL MORGAN PICKENS
SUMTER TUSCALOOSA WALKER
Here is the tornado watch we have been expecting.
The SPC denotes a moderate risk of tornadoes and a moderate risk of severe wind.
In the Birmingham area it includes:
Blount, Fayette, Greene, Jefferson, Lamar, Marion, Pickens, Sumter, Tuscaloosa, Walker, Winston [AL] till Dec 22, 2:00 AM CST
In the Huntsville area it includes:
Franklin, Lincoln, Moore [TN] and Colbert, Cullman, DeKalb, Franklin, Jackson, Lauderdale, Lawrence, Limestone, Madison, Marshall, Morgan [AL] till Dec 22, 2:00 AM CST
This new discussion bears out what we were just discussing. And a new tornado watch is likely for NW Alabama
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2105
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0740 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2013
AREAS AFFECTED…SRN IND…CNTRL KY..WCNTRL TN…NRN MS AND NW AL
CONCERNING…TORNADO WATCH 583…585…
VALID 220140Z – 220315Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 583…585…CONTINUES.
SUMMARY…THE WIND DAMAGE AND TORNADO THREAT ACROSS WW 583 AND WW
585 WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MID TO LATE EVENING WITH A
SQUALL-LINE MOVING EWD INTO CNTRL KY…MIDDLE TN AND NW AL. WW
ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY BECOME NECESSARY WITHIN THE HALF HOUR ACROSS
DISCUSSION…A WELL-DEVELOPED MULTI-SEGMENTED SQUALL-LINE CURRENTLY
EXTENDS FROM SRN IND SSWWD ACROSS WRN KY INTO WRN TN AND NRN MS. ON
THE NRN EDGE OF THE LINE…AN INTENSE BOW ECHO WILL MOVE INTO THE
LOUISVILLE AND CINCINNATI AREAS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
MESOANALYSIS CURRENTLY SUGGESTS THE BOW ECHO IS LOCATED ON THE NOSE
OF AN 80-90 KT JET NEAR 700 MB. THIS IS CREATING VERY STRONG
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES WHICH IS EVIDENT ON THE WSR-88D VWP AT
LOUISVILLE KY WHICH SHOWS 70 TO 80 KT OF FLOW ABOUT 1 KM OFF THE
SFC. THIS ALONG WITH THE NEWD MOVEMENT AT 50 TO 55 KT SUGGESTS THAT
THE SQUALL-LINE WILL LIKELY HAVE A WIND DAMAGE THREAT. A FEW
TORNADOES MAY ALSO OCCUR ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BOW.
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH…THE SQUALL-LINE HAS SHOWN INTENSIFICATION
OVER THE LAST HOUR ACROSS WCNTRL TN AND NRN MS. THIS PART OF THE
SQUALL-LINE IS LOCATED NEAR A LOW-LEVEL JET MAX WITH WIND SPEEDS OF
80 TO 90 KT. THIS ALONG WITH MLCAPE IN THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG ACROSS
NW AL AND MIDDLE TN SHOULD ENABLE THE LINE TO CONTINUE TO HAVE A
TORNADO THREAT THROUGH THE MID TO LATE EVENING. A STRONG TORNADO MAY
OCCUR WITH THE MORE INTENSE ROTATING CELL ELEMENTS.
ALSO…WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE BETTER
ORGANIZED BOWING SEGMENTS AS THE SQUALL-LINE MOVES INTO MIDDLE TN
AND NRN AL LATE THIS EVENING.
The BMX Sounding at 6 p.m showed an airmass that is slightly more unstable than we might have thought.
Here are some numbers and commentary:
Plenty of moisture in place with dewpoints in the 65F to 67F range in the I-20 corridor. Temperatures rage from 73F at Anniston and Birmingham to 76F at Tuscaloosa.
Surface based CAPE Value at BMX was 819 j/kg. We had thought it to be less than 500 j/kg. This gives the system a little more octane. Lifted Index was -4C which is moderate. Low level lapse rates are marginal, while mid level lapse rates are more robust.
There is a small remaining cap over Central Alabama, but that certainly won’t cause any problems for the approaching squall line. Developing cells over eastern Mississippi indicate the cap is already broken there.
0-6km speed shear is 57 knots. Plenty sufficient for organized updrafts.
STORM RELATIVE HELICITY
349 m2/s2 is plenty sufficient for supercells to develop. This number increases the further you go north.
STP (SIGNIFICANT TORNADO PARAMETER)
2.2 at Birmingham. This is concerning. While not off the scale, it is sufficient for a couple of significant tornadoes.
1.68 inches: This is in the 99th percentile for late December and nearly a record. This means there will be plenty of heavy rain. Fortunately, the system is moving fairly quickly, so flooding will not be a major concern except in localized areas. Expect a few flash flood warnings though.
Of course, instability values should slowly decrease, but the loss of heating could be offset by continued advection of warm, moist air. The wind fields will slowly decrease as the dynamics track further to the north overnight.
We will watch those showers over eastern Mississippi to see if they can develop into thunderstorms. They would certainly rotate and could produce damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes. The main line will produce several reports of wind damage and could have embedded tornadoes as well.
We will have frequent updates all night.
Our solid line of intense thunderstorms now extends from near Jackson TN to just east of Holly Springs MS to Grenada to Greenwood to Yazoo City in Mississippi.
It is moving east at 30 mph. At this rate of speed, it will reach western Alabama’s Lauderdale, Colbert, Franklin and marion Counties around 9:15-9:30. It should reach Lamar and Pickens Counties before 10 p.m.
Severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings are nearly solid along the line from southwestern Tennessee to near I-20 in Mississippi. One tornado warning is in effect north of Grenada MS and another east of Holly Springs. In Tennessee, another is in effect near and north of Jackson. Winds just gusted to 55 knots at Jackson TN (64 mph).
In Tennessee, 65 mph winds were reported earlier in Germantown and one inch hail was reported in Collierville. A tornado was reported with some damage at Senatobia, MS.
You can see additional showers have formed ahead of the main line. Any of these that manage to become thunderstorms concern us since they have the potential to be discrete cells ahead of the main squall. Those tend to have more potential to produce tornadoes.
Ahead of the line, the airmass is moderately unstable, and the wind fields are intense. In these winter season events, it doesn’t take much instability when you have these strong wind fields, so we continue a severe weather risk across much of Alabama west of a line from Wdowee to Montgomery to Brewton. There is an enhanced risk for areas west of a line Vernon to Haleyville to Athens.
The NWS BMX sent up a scheduled balloon at 6 p.m. The details will follow in another post.
Look for a tornado watch to be issued soon for portions of West Central and Northwest Alabama.
The more intense storms are currently crossing the Mississippi River into Mississippi and western Tennessee. The storm are moving to the east rapidly and are producing very gusty winds, torrential rainfall and are bringing with them the threat of damaging winds, tornadoes, and flooding.
Numerous severe thunderstorm warnings and flash flood warnings are accompanying these storms. Even some tornado warnings mixed in with the main line. Areas outlined in yellow are under a tornado watch, orange polygons severe thunderstorm warnings, red polygons are tornado warnings, and green and maroon are flooding and flash flooding.
Across Alabama currently, a few showers have developed and are currently east of Interstate 65. These showers are racing off to the north with the low-level jet. For the next few hours, we certainly could see showers develop at anytime. As the line of storms and better uplift begin to move closer to the state, we are likely to see some thunderstorm development ahead of the main line. We will have to watch these storms carefully if the do develop.
The SPC maintain much of Alabama in a slight risk for severe weather tonight, with an area of northwestern Alabama in an enhanced moderate risk. Strong and severe storms will move into the the state over the next several hours. We are expecting the SPC to issue some sort of watch as these storms move closer to the state. Stay weather aware overnight as severe storms with damaging straight line winds and tornadoes will be possible.
The severe weather event is beginning to take shape to our west. A line of very strong and sever storms is marching east. Severe storms extend from Memphis, Tennessee south to Alexandria, Louisiana.
Numerous severe thunderstorm warnings are in effect with this line of thunderstorms and we have started to see a few tornado warnings, and even reports of damage reported with one storm west of Memphis earlier.
This line of storms will continue to head towards Alabama. Severe storms should persist through the overnight hours as strong dynamics will be moving closer. Out ahead of the line of storms, ample warm, moist and unstable air is in place as evident by the widespread upper 70s and 80s in place across the region.
There are several showers developing along the Interstate 65 corridor and moving rapidly north. We still expect the line of storms to be approaching the western portions of the state between 8-9 PM. We will be watching areas out in front of the main line as there could be a few discrete supercells develop.
For the Birmingham area, the bulk of the action should be impacting the area closer to the midnight time frame. Make sure you have a reliable source for severe weather alerts during the overnight hours.
A thunderstorm that has a reported tornado with it is across the Mississippi River from Memphis.
This storm is just to the west of Memphis and is impacting areas along Interstate 40 and will be impacting Interstate 55 as well.
A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM CST FOR
NORTHEASTERN ST. FRANCIS AND CENTRAL CRITTENDEN COUNTIES…
AT 332 PM CST…EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED A POSSIBLE TORNADO
WITH DAMAGE. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR JONQUIL…OR 9 MILES
NORTH OF HUGHES…MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.
LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO WEST
CORNER…LEHI…BROWNS…PROCTOR…HETH…JONQUIL AND TARSUS.
The latest convective outlook from the SPC continues to keep most of Alabama in a risk for severe weather. Areas across northwestern portions of the state remained outlined in moderate risk for severe weather. This part of the state will have the most instability and dynamics and will be more likely to see severe weather. This moderate risk area includes areas from Pickens County, towards Fayette then up towards Hunstville.
A slight risk has been issued for almost the rest of the entire state, with the exception being the extreme southeastern counties of the state. The slight risk includes Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, Anniston, Gadsden, Montgomery, Demopolis, Selma and Mobile.
Tornado watches have been issued to our west and heading throughout the rest of the afternoon, we will be watching and waiting for these watches to be extended towards the east as the severe weather threat shifts east.
Early this afternoon, the radar across Alabama remains mostly calm, with just a few very light showers racing north with the warm air advection that is ongoing. The main showers and storms remain well to our west across Arkansas, Louisiana, and Texas. As we head into the evening hours, we anticipate the radar to light up like a Christmas tree; first across Mississippi and then into Alabama.
Timing: We still expect the main area of thunderstorms to be approaching our extreme northwestern counties by 8 or 9 PM this evening. There could be a few isolated discrete supercells ahead of the main band and those are certainly the storms we will have to keep an eye on as they are the most likely ones to be rotating.
In addition to the supercells, a very strong line of thunderstorms with damaging winds will be heading across the state during the overnight hours. Within this line of storms, there certainly could be some tornadoes as well.
With the worst of the weather expected overnight for much of Alabama, it is extremely important that you have a way to receive severe weather alerts overnight. Have a weather radio or a smart phone app like MyWARN to keep you notified of the severe weather threat.
Severe weather threat is increasing west of the state.
The SPC has just issued a new tornado watch for much of northern Mississippi, western Tennessee, and eastern Arkansas. This watch is in effect until 8PM this evening and includes Memphis, Pine Bluff, Oxford, and the entire Delta of Mississippi
We are expecting additional watches to be extended eastward later this evening as the severe weather threat shifts east. Now is the time to plan ahead and make sure you have a reliable source for severe weather alerts, especially since the worst of the weather will be moving through Alabama during the overnight hours.
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
* EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM NOON UNTIL
800 PM CST.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE…
SEVERAL INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
GREENVILLE MISSISSIPPI TO 50 MILES NORTHEAST OF DYERSBURG
TENNESSEE. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER…A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
Just stepping outside for a moment and you can feel how warm it is for the latter part of December. And already this morning, one new record high has been established.
Tuscaloosa’s most recent observation was 77 degrees which beats the old record of 75 set in 1971. With a few breaks in the clouds, it’s quite possible that the temperature there will climb a bit higher before the day ends.
Light rain was falling in Birmingham, so the temperature there was being held down a bit. It was 68 on the latest observation, and the record high for today is 73 set in 1923. It is quite possible that this record will be tied or broken, too.
And in Anniston, the reading was 70 which is only 4 degrees from the record high of 74 set in 1984.
Nearly all of Alabama remains under a risk of severe storms late this afternoon and into the night. The northwest corner of the state was in the moderate risk area. A tornado watch has already been issued for parts of Louisiana, southern Arkansas, and eastern Texas, and I suspect we’ll see more watches later today.
Stay with the Blog for the latest updates as the whole severe weather event unfolds. And be sure to have a way to get weather warnings tonight while you are asleep since much of the severe weather expected here will occur after sunset.
PS Winter officially began at 11:11 am this morning, so welcome to winter!!
PPS Looks like Anniston has also set a new record with 75 so far at of 1:15 pm.
Just a few dot…dot…dot notes as we continue to anticipate a significant early winter severe weather outbreak across the Lower Mississippi Valley, Mid-South, Southeast and Ohio Valley on this first official day of winter. (The winter solstice occurs at 11:11 a.m. CST.)
…Mist, drizzle and light rain has been the order of the day across Central Alabama so far. The BMX and Columbus radars show this very light precipitation streaming north in the warm advection pattern that is bringing moisture north on strong southerly winds.
…It is quite warm, with temperatures in the middle and upper 60s. It is 68F at Tuscaloosa. Highs should top out in the lower 70s. The record high for the date at BHM is 73F.
…It feels humid out there as well. Dewpoints at this hour include 67F at Tuscaloosa, 65F at Calera and 66F at Jasper. BHM was reporting 63F.
…Winds will be increasing. Across Central Alabama, they are averaging 10 mph now. Over the Tennessee Valley, winds are stronger as they are under the leading edge of an increasing low level jet stream at 5,000 feet. Those winds extend back into southern Louisiana. Wind advisories are in effect all across the region, including all of Alabama except for the Dothan area.
…All this will give the air a stormy feel today. It feels like “tornado weather”. And that is borne out in the forecast for severe weather.
…No severe thunderstorm or tornado warnings to our west now, but a tornado watch was just issued for Louisiana, eastern Texas and southern Arkansas. It goes until 6 p.m.
Much of Alabama is covered by a severe weather risk for the late afternoon and overnight hours, including an enhanced Moderate Risk over the Northwestern quarter of the state and a slight risk as far east as a line from Andalusia to Wedowee.
This thinking is based on the latest 4 km NAM output this morning and is in line with our current forecast:
…Patches of very light rain and drizzle will continue to stream northward today across the area. Rainfall will be light.
…Clouds are thick, although there is a little thinning from Bibb/Hale Counties up through Chilton, Coosa, Clay and Cleburne Counties. There is a little fog too.
…A couple of isolated storms could form around 4 or 5 p.m. across Central Alabama. Instabilities will be running 1,200-1,500 j/kg over West Central Alabama. By that time, bulk shear values will be over 50 knots, which will plenty sufficient for rotating updrafts. Low level helicities will be in the 200-300 m2/s2 range, so we will be watching for a rotation and the possibility of a tornado warning during the late afternoon, like we saw yesterday in the Jackson area when a confirmed tornado occurred.
…By midafternoon, a mass of thunderstorms will cover much of Arkansas and northern Louisiana. A tornado watch was just issued for those areas valid until 6 p.m. Prefrontal bands of thunderstorms start forming over Mississippi during the evening, extending into western Alabama around midnight. These storms will have the potential to produce damaging winds and isolated tornadoes.
…The tornado risk is highest over the Mississippi Delta, to the west of us in places like Alexandria LA, Memphis and Jackson MS. To put it in perspective, the SPC put the chance of a tornado occurring within 25 miles of a point in that area at 15%. That doesn’t sound like much, but actually, it is significant. Not like April 27th when the chance was 45% over Alabama and eastern Mississippi. The 10% risk covers areas west of a line from Livingston to Tuscaloosa to Jasper to Decatur. The rest of the slight risk area in Alabama carries a 5% chance of seeing a tornado within 25 miles of any point.
…The threat for damaging winds is higher, with the chance that points over Northwest Alabama will have a severe wind report within 25 miles of them at 45%. Areas down to a little past I-59 carry a 30% chance. The rest of the slight risk area carries a 15% chance of damaging wind reports.
…These storms will continue through the pre-dawn hours, pushing east of I-59 by mid-morning. There will still be sufficient instability through the morning hours over Central Alabama, and during the afternoon over South Central and East Central Alabama for continued storms. With the main dynamics already to the north of us, the threat for severe weather will be less, but there will still be a few warnings I would imagine.
Bottom line: we are waiting to see the storm system show the whites of its eyes. We will be monitoring it continuously until it is out of Alabama tomorrow night. Be able to receive watches and warnings, especially if you are sleeping, since much of the event will occur overnight. And review your severe weather safety plan with your family in order to be ready to take action immediately if a warning is issued.
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It’s December in Central Alabama, so when you step outside this morning you will get the feeling that this is not the typical weather for the days approaching Christmas. In fact, temperatures will be warm enough today to potentially tie or set new record highs. The record high for today in Birmingham is 73 degrees, so with the afternoon highs expected to reach the middle 70s, we could see a new record. You’ll also notice a stiff south to southeast wind which is helping to feed moisture and warmth into the approaching weather system.
Aloft a deep trough it kicking out of northern Mexico while at the surface a nearly stationary front stretches from the Ohio River Valley into Northeast Texas. Along that front there are numerous flash flood watches plus just to the northwest of the front are numerous winter weather watches, warnings, and advisories, so this storm system will be creating some travel problems for those headed out for Christmas travel this weekend. As the upper trough comes out of the Southwest, surface lows will ripple along the frontal boundary. Over the Southeast US and Lower Mississippi River Valley, low level moisture is in place with dew points in the middle to upper 60s with near 70 degree values along the Gulf Coast. This all sets the stage for an outbreak of severe weather across the Lower Mississippi Valley where a moderate risk area extends from just north of Nashville southwestward to near Lake Charles. See the Weather Xtreme Video for the detailed graphics.
The system kicks out later today while the bulk of the trough hangs back to our west. This will create a positive environment for severe weather with damaging wind and tornadoes possible. Low level wind profiles suggest the potential for some tornadoes to be strong. But as James suggests in the post below, we don’t need to be comparing this to April 27, 2011, which was a generational event. And we need to remember that we are in the secondary severe weather season for much of the Southeast US. So this afternoon and evening, we’ll need to watch for the development of super cells ahead of the main frontal boundary, but as the hi-res NAM suggests, the system should evolve into more of a linear event with a squall line moving across much of the northern two-thirds of Alabama tonight and into the morning hours of Sunday. The primary threat with the squall line will be damaging wind but isolated tornadoes will be possible with the line.
Today is the time to do some advance preparedness and make sure that you have a way to get warnings while you are asleep. A NOAA Weather Radio is the baseline, but smart folks will have more than one way to get warnings. Smart phone apps like MyWarn and iMap Weather Radio fit that bill because you set them and forget them, but they are looking out for you.
Because the major trough axis lags behind the active weather, we don’t turn appreciably colder until Monday and Tuesday as the colder air finally arrives with the trough passage. So it means that Christmas will be cold but dry for us. Christmas Day will start out in the middle 20s, but with good cold air advection reaching 50 degrees for the high may be a struggle.
For the Southeast US, the pattern remains somewhat flat while additional disturbances move through the northern tier of the US. With a dry air mass in place, the days after Christmas will be dry with a slow warming trend.
Looking into Week 2, the GFS suggests the start of 2014 could be warm for us with a substantial trough over the western US pumping up the ridge along the East Coast. But this flow, while warm, will also be wet with a nice tap into Pacific moisture.
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Be sure to stay with the Alabama Weather Blog for additional updates as the current weather system unfolds tonight and Sunday. I know that everyone is thinking about the Christmas holiday, but please stay alert to the weather. The timing of the main weather threat will be while folks are sleeping. I expect to post the next Weather Xtreme Video on Sunday morning, though the exact time may be problematic as we staff the Weather Center at ABC 3340. Godspeed.