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The latest information on Alabama weather, tornadoes, hurricanes, winter storms, national weather headlines and the science of meteorology in general.
Updated: 2 min 36 sec ago

Evening Update

Sat, 02/14/2015 - 17:11

Here some some quick notes this evening on the potential for a winter storm across Alabama Monday.

PRECIPITATION TYPE/ACCUMULATION: Main chance of snow will come over the Tennessee Valley of far North Alabama, where 2 to 4 inches are possible in spots. To the south, freezing rain and sleet are likely for places like Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Anniston, and Gadsden.

REMEMBER: It’s very unlikely that any snow or ice amount forecast will be exactly right. Consider it to be a range of possibilities. Also, the lines on map above dividing snow from sleet from rain look very precise, but they actually have very fuzzy edges in reality.

The greatest risk of road/bridge icing will be north of a line from Aliceville to Centreville to Calera to Roanoke. Just a cold rain to the south.

TIMING: The main threat of wintry weather will come from roughly 3:00 a.m. until 3:00 p.m. Monday. A change to a cold rain will come Monday evening into Monday night, with the possible exception of the Tennessee Valley, where some ice issues could possibly linger into Monday night.

IMPACT: Driving will become difficult in these areas due to icing on bridges, and some black top roads with surface temperatures below freezing. We do not expect enough ice accumulation now for widespread power outages, but scattered outages are certainly possible. Preparing for power outages is not a bad thing to do as a course of least regret.

ALABAMA POWER IS READY, ARE YOU? Our friends at Alabama Power are monitoring the forecast closely, ready to deploy people and assets to quickly address any outages that might occur. Read a special message from Ike Piggot about their commitment to their customers.

Winter storm watches are up from Oklahoma to parts of Alabama, Georgia, and Tennessee for this system.

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY: For most of North/Central Alabama, we expect just a cold rain Monday night with temperatures holding just above freezing, but there remains some potential for a change to snow on Tuesday before the system moves out of the state. There is much uncertainty in this possibility, and forecast confidence is low. We will have a much more specific outlook on this early tomorrow morning; for now it remains to be seen if we will have travel impacts Tuesday, Tuesday night, or even early Wednesday.

Stay tuned for updates throughout the weekend…

Categories: Weather

Presidents’ Day Storm Travel Nightmares – Southern Edition

Sat, 02/14/2015 - 15:37

Many folks will be traveling on the Presidents’ day holiday Monday. Let’s go area by area in the affected region across the South to put the travel impacts in perspective.

Here is the 4 km NAM depiction of the four types of precipitation that can be expected between now and 6 p.m. Monday:

Checking in on warnings and impacts going from west to east:

NORTH TEXAS
…Light icing across their northeastern counties along the Red River from Bowie to Sherman to Paris. Just a cold rain for the Metroplex.

ARKANSAS/LOUISIANA/NORTHEAST TEXAS
…Winter Storm Watch for all of Arkansas, except for the northwestern corner around Fayetteville. Snow is expected across the north in places like Mountain Home and Blytheville, where 2-4 inches of snow will fall. Up to 1/4 of an inch of freezing rain and 1 to 3 inches of snow and sleet is expected to fall across the middle of the state in places like Mena and Little Rock. The southeastern part of Arkansas around Pine Bluff is expecting one half inch of freezing rain and and inch of snow and sleet. This will cause significant icing problems including impassable roads, numerous tree limbs falling and widespread power outages. Further south, one tenth of an inch of feezing rain is expected along the US-82 corridor from Texarkana to El Dorado to Timing: beginning Sunday night and continuing through Tuesday.

WESTERN TENNESSEE/NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
…Winter Storm Watch from Sunday evening through much of Tuesday. Up to one tenth of an inch of ice and 1 to 3 inches of snow and sleet will fall across western Tennessee, including the Memphis and Jackson areas and across the northern counties of Mississippi, including places like Oxford and Tupelo. This will cause widespread travel problems and some utility outages.

CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
…Winter Storm Watch for the NWS Jackson’s northern tier of counties from Greenville and Greenwood over to Columbus, along the US-82 corridor. One quarter of an inch of ice will cause travel problems and some utility outages. This activity will extend eastward to near Columbus, Areas just south of the US-82 corridor but north of Vicksburg, Jackson and Meridian will experience light icing with some travel problems. South of that, it will be a cold rain.

MIDDLE TENNESSEE
…Winter Storm Watch for Sunday night through Monday night for 2 to 4 inches of snow accumulation across much of much of Middle Tennessee, including Nashville and Lawrenceburg. More snow is likely Tuesday and Tuesday night.

NORTH ALABAMA
…A Winter Storm Watch is in effect for the Tennessee Valley of North Alabama including Florence, Huntsville/Decatur and Scottboro and Fort Payne starting Sunday night and going through Monday night for 2-4 inches of snow, although there are some recent indications that freezing rain and sleet may be more of a problem as well.

CENTRAL ALABAMA
…Winter Storm Watch for areas north of a line generally from Moundville to Calera to Roanoke, including Tuscaloosa, Fayette, Jasper, Birmingham, Pelham, Talladega, Anniston, Jacksonville and ROanoke. Snow beginning in northwestern sections around or after midnight Sunday night, transitioning to a freezing rain and sleet mix through the pre-dawn hours Monday as far south as I-85 between Montgomery and Auburn.

NORTH GEORGIA
…The NWS Atlanta has not issued a Winter Storm Watch yet as their main impacts will not come until after Sunday night. Accumulated snow and sleep with affect the northern third of the state, including Rome, Atlanta and Gainesville starting Monday and lasting through Tuesday. The area from Rome to Gainesville may see mainly sleet with one half inch causing travel problems. For the Atlanta area, it will be dreaded freezing rain starting Monday morning with the potential for over one quarter of an inch of ice. This will cause significant travel issues and some power outages.

ALABAMA POWER IS READY, ARE YOU? Our friends at Alabama Power are monitoring the forecast closely, ready to deploy people and assets to quickly address any outages that might occur. Read a special message from Ike Piggot about their commitment to their customers.

Categories: Weather

The Warm Before the Cold

Sat, 02/14/2015 - 15:32

Well, it’s supposed to be a take off on the calm before the storm. Today is turning out to be a gorgeous February day for Central Alabama with a crystal clear sky and temperatures topping out between 60 and 65 degrees. But don’t let this beautiful day fool you. A cold front was poised just to our northwest and will move into and across Central Alabama overnight tonight dropping temperatures back quite a bit. By sunrise on Sunday morning we should see most places in the lower 20s with some spots dipping all the way back into the teens.

This cold surge will set the stage for a chilly Sunday with highs reaching the upper 30s to lower 40s. Then the stage really changes as moisture pushes into North and Central Alabama from the west. At mid afternoon, winter weather watches had been issued for Sunday evening and Monday all the way from Central Alabama westward to Southeast Oklahoma. Unfortunately, a messy pattern is likely to produce a mixture of snow, sleet, and freezing rain across the watch area which will likely result in significant travel problems from Birmingham to Memphis to Little Rock to Southeast Oklahoma. This winter storm will likely cause issues for Interstates 40, 55, 22, 30, and 65 to name a few. The icing situation is also likely to impact air travel since it will require de-icing of planes which can lead to delays.

Stay abreast of the latest weather for Central Alabama by checking back here frequently for updates. ALABAMA POWER IS READY, ARE YOU? Our friends at Alabama Power are monitoring the forecast closely, ready to deploy people and assets to quickly address any outages that might occur. Read a special message from Ike Piggot about their commitment to their customers.

-Brian-

Categories: Weather

Who Gets What?

Sat, 02/14/2015 - 14:31

That is always a difficult question to answer during any winter storm, but I think this model graphic is on target… from the high resolution NAM model…

Mostly freezing rain/ice for Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, Gadsden… best chance of snow north of the Tennessee River. Icy/very dangerous travel possible after midnight tomorrow night into Monday north of a line from Aliceville to Centreville to Calera to Wedowee.

More later…

ALABAMA POWER IS READY, ARE YOU? Our friends at Alabama Power are monitoring the forecast closely, ready to deploy people and assets to quickly address any outages that might occur. Read a special message from Ike Piggot about their commitment to their customers.

Categories: Weather

Late Morning Notes

Sat, 02/14/2015 - 12:18

The new 12Z model runs are in…

The trend is toward more freezing rain and sleet over North Alabama with less snow. But, understand this is just one set of model data, and you don’t make big changes.

GFS: You can see the trend toward more freezing rain…

NAM: Again, freezing rain and sleet is the headline…

If the 18Z set confirms this, we will move the snow band northward, toward far North Alabama, and stress freezing rain and sleet. Seems like the core risk of icing and dangerous travel will be along and north of a line from Aliceville to Brent to Calera to Wedowee at this point.

Data from the BUFKIT analysis tool shows potential for up to .35″ of ice accumulation… this is close to where some tree limbs could come down due to the weight of the ice, along with some potential for scattered power outages. You need about 0.50″ of ice for a major ice storm.

The main threat of freezing rain and sleet will come from about 3:00 a.m. until 3:00 p.m. Monday. A cold rain is likely Monday night with temperatures above freezing, with improving road conditions.

Be sure and scroll down for important notes on winter weather forecasting. We all know the skill set is limited, and there will be frequent forecast changes and adjustments as we get close to the event. Expect surprises.

TUESDAY: The 12Z GFS still shows snow for parts of Alabama Tuesday… this run is more to the south.

We just can’t be specific about the Tuesday event with low forecast confidence.

DO YOUR KNOW WINTER STORM PRECIPITATION TYPES? This helps explain…

ALABAMA POWER IS READY, ARE YOU? Our friends at Alabama Power are monitoring the forecast closely, ready to deploy people and assets to quickly address any outages that might occur. Read a special message from Ike Piggot about their commitment to their customers.

Stay tuned for frequent updates throughout the weekend.

Categories: Weather

Ten Things To Know About Winter Weather Forecasts

Sat, 02/14/2015 - 11:15

This is a great piece from Rick Smith, one of our WeatherBrains hosts, who is also the Warning Coordination Meteorologist (WCM) for the National Weather Service in Norman, Oklahoma. He wrote this for those that live in Oklahoma, but it is also applicable for people in Alabama. Thought it would be very appropriate to post this today…..

1. Not everyone in a winter storm warning will get a lot of snow and ice. Some will get nothing at all.

2. It’s very unlikely that any snow amount forecast – especially days in advance – will be exactly right. Consider it to be a range of possibilities. Also, those lines on maps dividing snow from sleet from rain look very precise, but they actually have very fuzzy edges.

3. In many cases, we’re better at forecasting the general location of where the heaviest snow will happen rather than the exact forecast amounts. Don’t focus so much on the exact numbers.

4. We try to provide you with our best forecast of snow/sleet/ice amounts as far in advance as we can. The first forecast numbers won’t usually be as good as the ones closer to the event. That’s just the way it is.

5. Often there will be a very small area, maybe a county wide, of heavy snow embedded within the main snow band. It is very difficult to pinpoint exactly where this will set up in advance. That’s what we mean when we say “isolated higher amounts.”

6. If you want the most accurate and up-to-date information, you will have to check the forecast several times a day. Otherwise, you’re working with old information.

7. People tend to focus on and remember the highest number, even if it’s from a forecast they heard days ago. This is especially true if they want it to happen. If you want it to snow, you’ll probably focus on the 6 inch amount if the forecast says “3 to 6 inches”.

8. Forecasts from the media, NWS, armchair social media forecasters, and the guy who cuts your hair who knows someone who took a meteorology course in college often get lumped together, and attributed to the generic “they”. If the haircut guy says he heard it could snow 8 inches, and everyone else says 2 to 4, many people will remember only that “they say we’re going to get 8 inches of snow.” And if there’s not 8 inches of snow, all the forecasters get the blame.

9. The volume of social media posts about snow is not necessarily directly proportional to the amount of snow we’re actually going to get. It seems like the more people are talking about it, the worse it’s going to be, but that’s not always the case.

10. Having too much snow forecast information can be confusing. Anyone can post an image of the computer model’s snow forecast. That doesn’t make it accurate or reliable. Social media has made it too to easy to share this kind of information. Choose your information sources wisely and don’t blindly share forecasts with big numbers.

ALABAMA POWER IS READY, ARE YOU? Our friends at Alabama Power are monitoring the forecast closely, ready to deploy people and assets to quickly address any outages that might occur. Read a special message from Ike Piggot about their commitment to their customers.

Categories: Weather

Ice Potential Monday Morning

Sat, 02/14/2015 - 10:55

This post concerns potential for ice accumulation across North/Central Alabama late Sunday night and Monday morning. See this post for a detailed overview of the entire winter storm event that will impact Alabama.

The new morning run of the NAM model suggests potential ice accumulation of 0.35″ to 0.40″ at Birmingham between midnight tomorrow night and Monday afternoon. (Data below is from the BUFKIT model analysis program)

Freezing rain is the most serious element of any winter storm; this is rain falling (in liquid form) with surface temperatures of 32 degrees or colder. It can coat exposed objects with ice, and if the freezing rain falls long enough, it can bring down trees and power lines.

Usually, for a major ice storm with widespread power outages, you need about 0.50″ of ice accumulation. It looks like we will be under this amount, but understand forecasting precipitation type and amount is a challenge in this kind of situation. We still project the best chance of freezing rain south of a line from Vernon to Jasper to Oneonta to Gadsden, with mostly snow to the north.

Here is output from the new NAM model, valid at 12:00 noon Monday…

It would not hurt to prepare for power outages in the event we get more freezing rain that we bargain for.

ALABAMA POWER IS READY, ARE YOU? Our friends at Alabama Power are monitoring the forecast closely, ready to deploy people and assets to quickly address any outages that might occur. Read a special message from Ike Piggot about their commitment to their customers.

Stay tuned for frequent updates throughout the weekend.

Categories: Weather

Beautiful Followed by Ugly

Sat, 02/14/2015 - 08:35

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

ALABAMA POWER IS READY, ARE YOU? Our friends at Alabama Power are monitoring the forecast closely, ready to deploy people and assets to quickly address any outages that might occur. Read a special message from Ike Piggot about their commitment to their customers.

It would appear that Central Alabama will be able to enjoy a lovely day as we see plenty of sunshine and temperatures recovering nicely with highs well into the 50s and some spots possibly reaching 60 to 62 degrees. But then the overall scene turns rather ugly for us. Much colder air blows in here again on Sunday with highs only in the upper 30s. The moisture begins to arrive very early Monday morning so precipitation is likely to begin as a wintry mix of sleet, freezing rain, and snow. With precipitation beginning in the early morning hours, I expect to see it severely impact travel Monday morning. The wintry mix of precipitation is likely to continue off and one for much of the day Monday as the surface low develops on the Central Gulf Coast. This should bring a change over in the precipitation to a cold rain by Monday evening and into the early morning of Tuesday.

Because of this expected timing of the winter weather, the National Weather Service has issued a winter weather watch for the northern half of Alabama. Please keep in mind that there is still a good deal of uncertainty in this developing situation. We’re dealing with a surface low that has yet to form, and as always, the track of that low will be a determining factor in who gets what and how much of any winter precipitation. But the potential is there for a high impact winter weather event.

The surface low will move to the South Carolina coast by midday Tuesday which will usher in cold air on the backside of the low and this will bring a changeover in the precipitation from rain to snow during the day, probably late morning and afternoon, for Central Alabama. Typically these kinds of changeover events do not result in heavy snow amounts, but there is a good deal of moisture with this system, so more than a dusting is possible.

The surface low bombs out over the Atlantic as it moves northeast by New England producing yet another major winter weather event for that area. For us, we stay in the cold as the upper air pattern remains fixed with a deep trough over the eastern half of the country.

And as if that is not enough, the GFS is suggesting another round of winter weather for us next Friday into Saturday. But this is verging on voodoo country, so we’ll spend our energy trying to figure out what will be happening with the first two winter weather events from Monday into Wednesday.

The longer range GFS suggest the pattern remains pretty cold out to the first of March when it is suggesting a strong closed low coming out of the southern Rockies, a pattern which if it verifies would produce a healthy round of severe weather for the Southeast US. So stay tuned!!

And you can follow news and weather updates from ABC 33/40 on Twitter here. Stay in the know by following the whole gang – here’s the list…

James Spann Charles Daniel Bill Murray Brian Peters E-Warn (AL wx watches/warnings)

I don’t think the weather situation can get any tougher than the one we’re facing. I strongly urge everyone to prepare today while we have time. If the icing develops as it looks like it will, travel will be severely impacted and power outages in the middle of cold weather could occur. Be sure to have an alternative heat source if possible, but be especially careful with any open flames or the use of generators which can create dangerous carbon monoxide events. Stay tuned to the blog for additional updates as we work diligently to bring you the best possible weather information. Enjoy the day and Godspeed.

-Brian-

Categories: Weather

Winter Storm Watch Issued

Sat, 02/14/2015 - 06:57

**Brian Peters will be along with the regular morning discussion and Weather Xtreme video shortly**

ENJOY TODAY: We expect a sunny sky today with a high around 60 degrees… but much colder air blows in here tomorrow, and things go downhill quickly after midnight Sunday night.

WINTER STORM WATCH: NWS offices in Huntsville and Birmingham have issued a winter storm watch for late Sunday night (after midnight) and Monday… this discussion will mainly involve “round one” of this winter storm which comes Monday.

TIMING: Wintry precipitation will begin over far Northwest Alabama around midnight tomorrow night; it will expand and cover much of North and Central Alabama by 3-5 a.m. Temperatures should creep above freezing at some point Monday afternoon with slow improvement, but expect very hazardous travel conditions between midnight tomorrow night and 3:00 p.m. Monday. However, icy travel could linger into Monday night for far North Alabama, mainly north of the Tennessee River.

ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL: We project 2-4 inches of snow for that part of Alabama north of a line from Vernon to Jasper to Oneonta to Gadsden. To the south, it will be mostly freezing rain and sleet, where ice accumulations to 0.3″ are possible. Remember, this is just a guideline; the precipitation type won’t change exactly along these lines.

Some icy spots are possible as far south as U.S. 80 (Demopolis to Selma to Montgomery to Opelika), but it will be mostly rain for those communities, and points south.

IMPACT: Travel will be severely impacted, with bridges becoming ice covered quickly. With temperatures in the 20s early Monday morning, even black top roads can become ice covered and very dangerous. While major, widespread power outages are not expected for now, where ice does accumulate to 0.3″, some power outages are possible. Preparing for power outages is never a bad idea, in case a worst case scenario develops.

ALABAMA POWER IS READY, ARE YOU? Our friends at Alabama Power are monitoring the forecast closely, ready to deploy people and assets to quickly address any outages that might occur. Read a special message from Ike Piggot about their commitment to their customers.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY: We should also mention the NWS Huntsville has issued a wind chill advisory for tomorrow; wind chill values could drop below zero at times as the cold air rushes in.

CONFIDENCE: Our forecast confidence is relatively high for the events expected Monday.

IMPORTANT: Please read this post about winter weather forecasting. As you know, we have a limited skill set in dealing with winter storms in Alabama, and forecast changes are very possible as we get closer to the event. Be sure and check the blog often this weekend.

ROUND TWO: For now we expect just a cold rain Monday night, but there is a decent chance the rain changes to snow on Tuesday before it all ends.

This looks like a rather quick hitting event, but it could produce snow amounts of 1-2 inches during the day Tuesday, with accumulation possible as far south as a line from Eutaw to Centreville to Calera to Sylacauga to Roanoke. Confidence is lower in this forecast, and the exact impact remains uncertain. However, there is real chance it could impact travel Tuesday afternoon, Tuesday night, and possibly Wednesday morning across North and Central Alabama. We will be much more specific about this threat tomorrow.

Wednesday looks cold and dry.

Stay tuned for frequent updates throughout the weekend.

Categories: Weather

Friday Night Notes

Fri, 02/13/2015 - 22:34

New model data is trickling in, and we are still on track for a significant winter storm for the northern half of Alabama late Sunday night into at least Monday.

ROUND ONE…

TIMING: Snow and sleet will move into Northwest Alabama around midnight Sunday night, and will expand and become widespread during the pre-dawn hours Monday. Travel will become very difficult between 2 and 5 a.m. Icy travel will continue at least through midday; some slow improvement is possible Monday afternoon, but some of the latest guidance we are seeing suggests icy patches could linger through much of the day.

ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL: Snow amounts of 1 to 3 inches are likely along and north of a line from Vernon to Jasper to Oneonta to Gadsden. To the south, it will be mostly sleet and freezing rain for places like Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, and Anniston. Ice accumulation could exceed 1/10 of an inch in places; this doesn’t sound like much, but it can bring serious driving problems.

IMPACT: Bridges will become icy quick Monday morning with temperatures in the 20s, and some secondary roads (away from bridges) could become icy as well. Travel will be difficult over North and Central Alabama. And, for now, we don’t expect enough ice accumulation for power outages.

CONFIDENCE: This is a fairly high confidence forecast. If anything, we might be underestimating the impact of this storm system, but we will need to see new data before making any changes.

ROUND TWO…

A cold rain is likely Monday night, but on Tuesday a surface low passes just to the south, and more cold air begins to move southward. The GFS (the primary American global model) continues to hint the rain will change to snow over the northern half of the state during the day Tuesday.

If this indeed happens, we will see more travel problems Tuesday afternoon, Tuesday night, and possibly into Wednesday morning. Seems like the main window for snow will come from about 2:00 p.m. until 8:00 p.m. Tuesday, with potential accumulation of 1-3 inches across North/Central Alabama, including Birmingham, Anniston, Gadsden, and Tuscaloosa.

Confidence is much lower on “round two”, but it is gaining since models have been fairly consistent in recent runs.

We will have forecast updates throughout the weekend… stay tuned!

Categories: Weather

Warmer Tomorrow; Winter Weather Issues Monday

Fri, 02/13/2015 - 16:52

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

COLD FRIDAY THE 13TH: Temperatures are only in the 39-44 degree range across North/Central Alabama this afternoon despite a mostly sunny sky. Tonight will be cold again with most communities dropping down into the mid 20s.

ONE DAY WARM-UP: Tomorrow will be the nicest day of the weekend; we warm to near 60 degrees tomorrow afternoon with a sunny sky. The warmth won’t last long; another surge of cold air blows in here tomorrow night, and by early Sunday we will be in the 15-20 degree range (the GFS is printing a low of 17 for Birmingham early Sunday). Sunday’s high will be between 37 and 40 degrees despite a sunny sky.

WINTER STORM THREAT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY: Not much change in our overall thinking on the beginning of this event…

TIMING: Looks like the precipitation now could arrive as early as midnight Sunday night. The primary threat of icy travel problems will come from about 2:00 a.m. until 12:00 noon. Isolated icy patches could linger into Monday afternoon across the Tennessee Valley of extreme North Alabama, but temperatures should generlly rise above freezing in most places by late morning.

PRECIPITATION TYPE: It looks like all snow along and north of U.S. 278, or north of a line from Hamilton to Cullman to Gadsden. To the south, Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, and Anniston will have a “wintry mix” of snow, sleet, and freezing rain. Some sleet/freezing rain is possible as far south as Livingston, Clanton, and Roanoke.

ACCUMULATION: The Tennessee Valley could see 1-2 inches of snow Monday morning; amounts to 1 inch are possible along the I-20/59 corridor, but keep in mind much of the precipitation there could be in the form of sleet and freezing rain. Ice accumulation to 1/10 of an inch is possible through Central Alabama.

IMPACT: With temperatures in the 20s, bridges and overpasses will likely become icy across North/Central Alabama as the precipitation falls. Ice is possible on secondary road surfaces (not just bridges) as well. Travel will be difficult. We do not expect enough freezing rain to create power outages at this time.

UNCERTAINTY: As always, this could change, but confidence is growing with good model consistency.

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY: Forecast confidence is much lower for this period. As I expected, the 12Z GFS has pulled the precipitation shield to the north, hinting at some rain Monday night into early Tuesday, with potential for a change to snow during the day Tuesday on the northern periphery of the precipitation shield as a surface low passes to the south.

No point in getting specific about Tuesday with such low forecast confidence, but accumulating snow will be possible somewhere across North or Central Alabama. The precipitation will wind down Tuesday night… could we have travel problems Tuesday night and Wednesday? Very possible, but too early to call for now.

REST OF THE WEEK: Wednesday will be cold and dry; a clipper system could bring some light snow to parts of North Alabama Thursday. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

FIRST ALERT STORM TEAM TOUR: Our annual severe weather awareness tour across Alabama rolls along; we will be in Cordova next Thursday evening. Just drop by anytime from 4:00 until 6:30… you can watch me do weather live on ABC 33/40, get some free stuff to take home, and have a chance to win several NOAA Weather Radios we will be giving away. If you need your weather radio programmed or checked, bring it by and we will be glad to help.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Look for the kids from Webster Christian School, and Hall Kent Elementary School in Homewood on the Pepsi KIDCAM this evening at 5:00 and 6:00 on ABC 33/40 News… we will have frequent updates on the blog throughout the weekend, so stay tuned!

Categories: Weather

Update On Winter Weather Potential Monday/Tuesday

Fri, 02/13/2015 - 13:27

New model guidance is in…

Not much too change in our thinking for Monday morning….

TIMING: Looks like the precipitation now could arrive as early as midnight Sunday night. The primary threat of icy travel problems will come from about 2:00 a.m. until 12:00 noon. Isolated icy patches could linger into Monday afternoon across the Tennessee Valley of extreme North Alabama, but temperatures should generlly rise above freezing in most places by late morning.

PRECIPITATION TYPE: It looks like all snow along and north of U.S. 278, or north of a line from Hamilton to Cullman to Gadsden. To the south, Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, and Anniston will have a “wintry mix” of snow, sleet, and freezing rain. Some sleet/freezing rain is possible as far south as Livingston, Clanton, and Roanoke.

ACCUMULATION: The Tennessee Valley could see 1-2 inches of snow Monday morning; amounts to 1 inch are possible along the I-20/59 corridor, but keep in mind much of the precipitation there could be in the form of sleet and freezing rain. Ice accumulation to 1/10 of an inch is possible through Central Alabama.

IMPACT: With temperatures in the 20s, bridges and overpasses will likely become icy across North/Central Alabama as the precipitation falls. Ice is possible on secondary road surfaces (not just bridges) as well. Travel will be difficult. We do not expect enough freezing rain to create power outages at this time.

UNCERTAINTY: As always, this could change, but confidence is growing with good model consistency.

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY: Forecast confidence is much lower for this period. As I expected, the 12Z GFS has pulled the precipitation shield to the north, hinting at some rain Monday night into early Tuesday, with potential for a change to snow during the day Tuesday on the northern periphery of the precipitation shield.

No point in getting specific about Tuesday with such low forecast confidence, but accumulating snow will be possible somewhere across North or Central Alabama.

Will have a more detailed discussion and a new Weather Xtreme video by 4:00… and please read the post below this one concerning things you need to understand about winter weather forecasts!

Categories: Weather

Winter Weather Woes Possible Monday

Fri, 02/13/2015 - 07:33

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

TEMPERATURE ROLLER COASTER: We are starting the day with temperatures generally in the 19-24 degree range across North/Central Alabama; the day ahead will be partly sunny with a high in the mid 40s. Then, tomorrow we warm into the low 60s by afternoon with a good supply of sunshine, and there is no doubt that will be the nicest day over the weekend.

Then, on Sunday, cold air returns. The last few global model runs have trended a bit warmer for Alabama, keeping the coldest air a little east of the state. Still, it will be a very chilly day with a high between 37 and 40 degrees. The sky will be sunny, and the wind won’t be as harsh as forecast earlier since the really tight gradient sets up northeast of here.

MESSY MONDAY: Confidence is high in some winter weather woes for the northern half of Alabama Monday morning. A wave in the southern branch of the jet stream will push precipitation into the state, with the onset most likely coming between 4:00 and 6:00 a.m.

PRECIPITATION TYPE: For now, it looks like all snow Monday morning along and north of U.S. 278 (Hamilton to Cullman to Gadsden), with a “wintry mix” of snow, sleet, and freezing rain to the south for places like Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, and Anniston. Some sleet and freezing rain is possible early Monday as far south as Livingston, Clanton, and Roanoke.

ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL: Some communities north of U.S. 278, up in the Tennessee Valley, could see 1-2 inches of snow. To the south, around one inch of snow/sleet is possible in scattered pockets around I-20/59. Understand it is still really too early to be specific on amounts; this is just a “first guess”, and will probably change.

IMPACT: Temperatures should be in the 20s early Monday, and this should lead to bridge icing, and also potential icing on secondary roads. Driving/travel issues are a real possibility. Thankfully most school systems are not in session Monday, and with it being a federal holiday many have the day off anyway.

TIMING: Temperatures will slowly warm, and by late morning we expect mid 30s and the ice issues will slow fade away for North/Central Alabama. Highest risk of icy travel for places like Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, and Anniston is from 4:00 a.m. until 12:00 noon. However, up in far North Alabama, some ice/snow patches on roads and bridges could persist into the afternoon hours.

UNDERSTAND: We have a limited skill set in dealing with winter storms in Alabama, especially three days in advance. The forecast can, and probably will change, so keep an eye on these discussions.

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY: Confidence is very low in this period. Models have trended to the south with the low in the Gulf, and they keep most of the precipitation over the southern half of Alabama, with the northern counties just cold and dry. But I would not be surprised to see a northward shift in future runs, and there could very well be additional winter weather issues at some point Tuesday or Tuesday night somewhere across Alabama. For now we will mention a chance of light rain Tuesday, with potential for some light snow Tuesday night, but again this is very uncertain.

LATER NEXT WEEK: The GFS brings a clipper in here Thursday with a chance of more light snow during the morning hours; needless to way no need to worry about this now since it could come right off the board on future model runs. Take some time to watch the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

FIRST ALERT STORM TEAM TOUR: Our annual severe weather awareness tour across Alabama rolls along; we will be in Cordova next Thursday evening (the scheduled stop in Hanceville Tuesday evening is being postponed due to the nasty weather). Just drop by anytime from 4:00 until 6:30… you can watch me do weather live on ABC 33/40, get some free stuff to take home, and have a chance to win several NOAA Weather Radios we will be giving away. If you need your weather radio programmed or checked, bring it by and we will be glad to help.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I have weather programs today at the Church of the Highlands in Irondale, and later at Hall Kent Elementary School in Homewood. Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Categories: Weather

Evening Forecast Notes

Thu, 02/12/2015 - 22:13

We really had a great time and a huge crowd this evening over at Reform in Pickens County… thanks to everyone for their hospitality!

Let’s look ahead to the potential wintry weather situation for Alabama early next week….

ICY MONDAY: Confidence is increasing in the idea of a “wintry mix” over North and Central Alabama Monday morning. The new 00Z NAM model just in suggests the onset of the precipitation will come between 4 and 6 a.m., when surface temperatures will be below freezing.

It is impossible at this early stage of the game to try and identify the precipitation type and their locations, but one way or another this sure looks like it will impact travel for at least the first half of the day Monday with potential for ice on bridges, and perhaps some secondary roads. Icy travel problems seem likely from about 4:00 a.m. through 12:00 p.m. Monday, and mainly north of a line from Livingston to Eutaw to Marion to Clanton to Alexander City.

The precipitation should change to mainly rain over Alabama Monday afternoon, continuing Monday night and into Tuesday morning, although the are hints that freezing or frozen precipitation could continue across the Tennessee Valley of far North Alabama.

Then, during the day Tuesday as a surface low moves northeast and more cold air drops into the state, the rain could change to freezing rain, sleet, or snow on the back side of the departing system.

This could lead to more icy travel problems Tuesday afternoon, Tuesday night, and possibly into Wednesday morning.

The GFS model hints of some snow accumulation over North/Central Alabama…

That is model output, NOT a forecast… just an idea for now.

BOTTOM LINE: We have potential for hazardous winter driving conditions Monday morning, and then again Tuesday, Tuesday night, and possibly into Wednesday. We have a limited skill set in dealing with winter storms in Alabama five days in advance, so understand this forecast will probably change. We are just giving you a heads up to potential issues….

I will have a new Weather Xtreme video posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow.

Categories: Weather

Winter Weather Issues Next Week

Thu, 02/12/2015 - 12:55

**No afternoon Weather Xtreme video today… we are on the road to Reform for the First Alert Storm Team tour**

COLD DAY: Despite the sunshine, temperatures are only in the low 40s across much of North/Central Alabama this afternoon with a chilly north wind. The wind will die down tonight, and it will be cold with temperatures down in the low 20s early tomorrow.

TOMORROW/SATURDAY These two days will be dry and sunny; the high tomorrow will be in the mid 40s, but we will rise to near 60 degrees Saturday afternoon as the weekend begins. No doubt it will be the warmest day over the weekend.

SUNDAY: Much colder air blows in here Sunday; we won’t get past the mid 30s with a chilly north wind. Clouds increase Sunday night ahead of a southern branch wave that promises to bring some winter weather woes to parts of the Deep South early next week.

TWO WINDOWS OF CONCERN: The new GFS reveals two potential issues… The first comes Monday when the precipitation begins. This will most like begin as a “wintry mix” of sleet, snow, and maybe even some freezing rain.

With cold air in place, travel impact is possible, generally before 12:00 noon.

It all changes to rain late Monday afternoon, continuing Monday night and Tuesday morning. Strong storms might even be in the mix for South Alabama.

ISSUE NUMBER TWO: As a surface low moves northeast, colder air will spill into Alabama, and the rain will change to snow over at least the northern half of the state late Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night.

Way too early for an accumulation forecast, but again there will potential for icy travel, especially on bridges.

Understand there is still a good of uncertainty in the forecast, and there will be changes. It remains to be seen if these will be “high impact” events, or a minor nuisance. We will keep a close eye on the situation.

Wednesday will be cold with a few morning snow flurries; we won’t get out of the 30s with a chilly north wind.

FIRST ALERT STORM TEAM TOUR: Our annual severe weather awareness tour across Alabama rolls along; we will be in Reform this evening. Just drop by anytime from 4:00 until 6:30… you can watch me do weather live on ABC 33/40, get some free stuff to take home, and have a chance to win several NOAA Weather Radios we will be giving away. If you need your weather radio programmed or checked, bring it by and we will be glad to help.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Categories: Weather

Much Colder Today; Some Snow Next Week?

Thu, 02/12/2015 - 07:17

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

WINTER ISN’T OVER: Much colder air will blow into Alabama today; we won’t get past the low 40s this afternoon with a strong northwest wind of 15-25 mph making it feel colder. But, the air is dry and we will see a mostly sunny sky. The wind will die down tonight, and by early tomorrow we project a low around 20 degrees for most places, but the colder spots will head down into the mid to upper teens.

TOMORROW/SATURDAY: These two days will feature a sunny sky; the high Friday will be in the mid 40s, but model guidance is trending warmer Saturday, with the GFS now suggesting we could reach the low 60s Saturday afternoon. No doubt that will be the nicest day over the weekend, and that one day warm-up will be very short lived.

COLD AIR BLAST SUNDAY: An Arctic front will pass through in dry fashion Saturday night, and Sunday will be breezy and much colder with a high only in the mid 30s. The wind chill index will drop down into the single digits early Sunday morning across North/Central Alabama as winter makes another comeback. The air will be dry and the sky will stay mostly sunny.

WINTER MISCHIEF NEXT WEEK? A storm system in the southern branch of the jet stream will bring weeping and gnashing of teeth in weather offices across the Deep South. Here are the highlights…

MONDAY: Models are trending faster, bringing in precipitation during the day Monday. The air should be cold enough for sleet, and maybe even a snow flake or two Monday as this event begins. Timing is the key; if the precipitation begins Monday morning, there could be a short window for icy bridges over North Alabama. However, the most likely ETA will be during the midday hours when temperatures rise above freezing with no travel impact. We will need to keep a close eye on this; but for now I think the sleet that falls Monday will not create a significant travel impact.

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY: Very wet with rain and a few thunderstorms. The GFS brings a 1000 mb surface low right through North/Central Alabama with potential for over one inch of rain, and maybe even a few strong thunderstorms over the southern half of the state. Confidence is high for this part of the forecast; we should reach the 50s Tuesday afternoon as the rain falls.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY: As the surface low pulls away to the northeast, much colder air will drop into the state, and there is a good chance the rain changes to light snow. The main window for now will come from about 12 midnight Tuesday night to 12 noon Wednesday. Traditionally, on the back side of a departing storm system, snow accumulation isn’t very big, but it is certainly possible, and it could bring travel issues for Wednesday morning over about the northern half of the state, mainly on bridges as temperatures plunge.

UNDERSTAND: This event is 5-6 days away, and there is no way to resolve specific details, or provide a specific accumulation/impact forecast now. Just keep an eye on these blog discussions and you will be informed.

Wednesday will be very cold, with temperatures having a hard time getting above freezing with snow flurries possible through the day. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

FIRST ALERT STORM TEAM TOUR: Our annual severe weather awareness tour across Alabama rolls along; we will be in Reform this evening. Just drop by anytime from 4:00 until 6:30… you can watch me do weather live on ABC 33/40, get some free stuff to take home, and have a chance to win several NOAA Weather Radios we will be giving away. If you need your weather radio programmed or checked, bring it by and we will be glad to help.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Due to the travel to Pickens County this afternoon, I won’t be able to crank out an afternoon video, but I will have fresh forecast notes posted by 4:00. Enjoy the day!

Categories: Weather

Much Colder Tomorrow

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 16:45

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

WONDERFUL WINTER DAY: It has been a day of blue sky and sunshine across the great state of Alabama, and temperatures are in the 59-63 degree range at most places this afternoon. I hope you are enjoying it, because much colder air blows in here tomorrow.

WINDY/COLDER: The high tomorrow will be only in the low 40s despite a mostly sunny sky, and a brisk north wind of 15-25 mph will make it feel colder. The wind will calm down tomorrow night, and by early Friday we will be in the 17-21 degree range. Friday will be cold and dry with a good supply of sunshine and a high in the mid 40s.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: A one day warm-up is likely Saturday; with sunshine in full supply we will rise into the mid 50s by afternoon, but another dry Arctic front will pass through Saturday night, and Sunday will be one of the coldest days so far this winter. The latest GFS run (12Z) is printing a high of only 33 for Birmingham Sunday afternoon… many communities to the north won’t get out of the 20s. The wind chill index early Sunday morning will drop into the sub-zero range over Northeast Alabama, and will be close to zero at Birmingham. But at least the air will be dry and the day will be mostly sunny, despite the Arctic cold.

TRICKY FORECAST NEXT WEEK: As discussed here this morning, next week’s forecast is a challenge. Monday will be dry with a high in the upper 40s, and a wave in the southern branch of the jet stream will bring clouds in here Monday night. Confidence is high in a rain event Tuesday as a surface low passes just north of Alabama. Then, Tuesday night and early Wednesday, as colder air flows into the state, the rain could change to a “wintry mix” of sleet, freezing rain, or snow over the northern half of the state before it ends.

The idea of a second wave coming in during the day Wednesday is “off the table” for now… so at the moment it looks like the main risk of winter weather mischief for North Alabama will come Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. There is no skill in a specific impact forecast this far in advance, just something to watch. We could see nothing more than a few flurries, or there could be some light accumulation. For now, the highest risk of accumulation is north of Alabama…

Take some time to watch the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and more details.

FIRST ALERT STORM TEAM TOUR: Our annual severe weather awareness tour across Alabama rolls along; we will be in Reform tomorrow evening. Just drop by anytime from 4:00 until 6:30… you can watch me do weather live on ABC 33/40, get some free stuff to take home, and have a chance to win several NOAA Weather Radios we will be giving away. If you need your weather radio programmed or checked, bring it by and we will be glad to help.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

I enjoyed seeing everyone today at the ALAGASCO service center in Pell City… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Categories: Weather

One Day Warm-Up; Much Colder Tomorrow

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 07:19

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

NICE WARM-UP TODAY: We are starting the day with temperatures generally in the 26-32 degree range, but with sunshine in full supply we project a high in the low 60s this afternoon. It will be the warmest day out of the next seven.

SHARPLY COLDER TOMORROW: A cold front will pass through in dry fashion tonight, and tomorrow will be windy and colder with a high only in the low 40s; a northwest wind averaging 15-25 mph will make it feel colder. The wind will die down tomorrow night, and by Friday morning we project a low between 17 and 22 degrees across North/Central Alabama. Friday will remain cold and dry with a high in the low to mid 40s.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: We start it off with a sunny day on Saturday; the morning low will be in the 20s, and we will rise to near 50 degrees by afternoon. Then, yet another dry cold front blasts through Saturday night, and Sunday promises to be a very frigid day. We start the day somewhere between 15 and 20, and the high will be only in the mid 30s despite a sunny sky. Just about everybody north of Birmingham will stay below freezing all day.

By daybreak Monday we will drop into the 15-20 degree range again with a clear sky and light wind.

TRICKY FORECAST NEXT WEEK: The forecast next week is a can of worms with little confidence in any specific solution as a cold, unsettled pattern develops. Clouds will increase late Monday ahead of a wave in the southern branch of the jet stream, and we will forecast periods of rain on Tuesday with a surface low passing just north of the state.

Here are the two forecast challenges…

*Will there be a change from rain to snow Tuesday night? Colder air will be pulled into the state in the wake of the surface low passage, and this is a possibility. However, for now I think the logical forecast is just to mention a chance of snow flurries over the northern third of the state with little impact. There is basically no consistency in the track of the surface low at this point, however. Some light accumulation could occur somewhere over North Alabama, or there could be no snow at all.

*Will a second wave bring snow to Alabama Wednesday? The 06Z GFS shows a decent snow event for much of Alabama Wednesday afternoon and evening with Arctic air in place. However, often with cold air over Alabama these waves are shunted well to the south, and we wind up with nothing.

As the graphic says, this is NOT a forecast, just an idea to watch in coming days. We really won’t have much clarity in the situation until the weekend, and there is a real chance Alabama will not see any significant snow. But, at least the snow lovers have some hope here. Take some time to watch the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

FIRST ALERT STORM TEAM TOUR: Our annual severe weather awareness tour across Alabama rolls along; we will be in Reform tomorrow evening. Just drop by anytime from 4:00 until 6:30… you can watch me do weather live on ABC 33/40, get some free stuff to take home, and have a chance to win several NOAA Weather Radios we will be giving away. If you need your weather radio programmed or checked, bring it by and we will be glad to help.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

I have a severe weather safety program today at ALAGASCO in Pell City… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Categories: Weather

Pleasant Tomorrow; Much Colder Thursday

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 14:55

**No afternoon Weather Xtreme video today; we are in Winfield for the First Alert Storm Team tour**

BLUE SKY AND SUNSHINE: After some stubborn clouds this morning, the sky is bright and sunny across the great state of Alabama this afternoon with temperatures in the 40s. We expect a clear, cold night ahead with a low near the freezing mark early tomorrow.

Then, we warm nicely during the day tomorrow with most communities enjoying a high in the low 60s. It will be our warmest day out of the next seven.

COLD AIR BLAST THURSDAY: A cold front comes through in dry fashion tomorrow night, and Thursday will be cold and blustery with a high only in the low 40s along with a chilly north wind of 15-25 mph. By daybreak Friday, we project lows in the 17-22 degree range for most of North/Central Alabama. Friday will be sunny but cold with a high in the mid 40s.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Saturday will be cold and dry with a good supply of sunshine and a high in the 43-48 degree range. Then, yet another Arctic front passes through Saturday night, and Sunday looks like one of the colder days so far this winter. Despite a sunny sky, we will have a hard time getting past the mid 30s, and most places north of Birmingham will stay below freezing all day. The latest GFS is printing a low of 17 degrees for Birmingham early Sunday morning.

NEXT WEEK: Monday morning will feature another very significant freeze with a low down in the upper teens. Then, the day Monday will be partly sunny with a high in the mid 40s. A wave in the southern branch of the jet stream will bring our next chance of rain on Tuesday; the latest GFS run hints that there could be a window for the rain to change to snow Tuesday night as colder air moves into the state; way to early to know if this will happen at all. Just an idea worth watching in coming days.

FIRST ALERT STORM TEAM TOUR: Our annual severe weather awareness tour across Alabama rolls along; we will be in Winfield this evening. Just drop by anytime from 4:00 until 6:30… you can watch me do weather live on ABC 33/40, get some free stuff to take home, and have a chance to win several NOAA Weather Radios we will be giving away. If you need your weather radio programmed or checked, bring it by and we will be glad to help.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

I enjoyed seeing the 6th graders today at Clay Chalkville Middle School… and I hope to see many of you at Winfield this evening. The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Categories: Weather

Cooler Today; Much Colder Thursday

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 07:02

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

COOL CHANGE: The sky is clear across the great state of Alabama this morning, and most communities are in the 30s. We project a high in the low 50s today with sunshine in full supply. Tomorrow will be warmer, and should be the most pleasant day of the week as we rise into the low 60s with a sunny sky.

MUCH COLDER THURSDAY: A strong north wind will usher in much colder air Thursday; the sky will be partly sunny, and we won’t get past the low 40s. Some communities north of Birmingham won’t make it out of the 30s Thursday afternoon. The wind will die down Thursday night, and the low early Friday will be in the 17-21 degree range over North/Central Alabama. Then, Friday will be another cold and dry day with a high in the low 40s.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Saturday will be a bright, sunny day… we begin with a low in the 20s, and the high Saturday afternoon will be in the upper 40s. Then, another surge of very cold air blows in here Saturday night. We drop into the 16-21 degree range at daybreak Sunday, and with a strong north wind the wind chill index will go down into the single digits.

Despite a sunny sky, we won’t get past the mid 30s Sunday afternoon, and many places north of Birmingham will stay below freezing all day. And, it looks more and more like Monday will be the coldest morning when we project a low between 12 and 18 degrees.

NEXT WEEK: Clouds increase Monday night, and rain returns to Alabama Tuesday (it will be warm enough for just rain by then). Then, colder and drier air returns at mid-week on Wednesday. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

FIRST ALERT STORM TEAM TOUR IN WINFIELD THIS EVENING: Our annual severe weather awareness tour across Alabama rolls along; we will be in Winfield this evening. Just drop by anytime from 4:00 until 6:30… you can watch me do weather live on ABC 33/40, get some free stuff to take home, and have a chance to win several NOAA Weather Radios we will be giving away. If you need your weather radio programmed or checked, bring it by and we will be glad to help.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Scroll down for the show notes on the new episode we recorded last night.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

I have a weather program today at Clay-Chalkville Middle School, and then I will be on to Winfield for tonight’s stop on the First Alert Storm Team tour. Just one video today… but I will post forecast notes by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Categories: Weather