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Updated: 13 min 7 sec ago

Cool, Wet Day For Alabama

Tue, 10/27/2015 - 06:26

ON THE MAPS: The low pressure center, known as the “ghost of Patricia”… is over Southeast Mississippi early this morning…

This will bring another cloudy, cool, and wet day to our state; we expect periods of rain through tonight with a high in the 60s. Additional rain amounts of around 1/2 inch are likely, with isolated amounts to 1 inch.

TOMORROW/THURSDAY: We will hang on to the chance of a few lingering showers tomorrow morning, but there is a decent chance most of the rain will be over by mid-morning. The sun might even being to return tomorrow afternoon, and the high will rise into the low to mid 70s.

Then, a cold front will pass through Thursday morning, and there could be enough moisture for a few showers along the front. Seems like the best chance of a shower Thursday will come from about 3:00 until 8:00 a.m…. the rest of the day should feature a partly sunny sky and a high at or just over 70 degrees.

FRIDAY: This will be a beautiful day, with ample sunshine. We start the day down in the 40s, and the high Friday afternoon will be in the low 70s. The fall colors should look great after the recent day, and a cobalt blue autumn sky.

HALLOWEEN WEEKEND: Clouds return to the state Saturday, but the day should be rain-free with a high in the low to mid 70s. Rain moves in Saturday night; timing the onset of the rain is difficult this far in advance, but there is a decent chance the trick or treaters will be able to do their thing before the wet weather gets here. Rain is likely after midnight Saturday night through the day Sunday, and a thunderstorm or two could be involved (but no severe weather expected). Rain amounts will be close to one inch with this weekend system.

NEXT WEEK: Any lingering showers end early Monday, and mid-week looks dry and pleasant with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: Auburn hosts Ole Miss Saturday at Jordan-Hare Stadium at 11:00; at this point the weather looks mostly cloudy, but the chance of rain holds off until late Saturday night, well after the game is finished. Temperatures will rise from the upper 60s at kickoff into the low 70s by the fourth quarter.

Alabama takes the weekend off.

AT THE BEACH: Today will be another day of rain and gusty winds for the Central Gulf Coast, but showers taper off tomorrow, and the weather will be dry Thursday and Friday with sunny days and fair nights. Rain returns late in the weekend… See the complete Gulf Coast 7 Day Planner here. The Gulf Coast Beach Forecast is presented by Gulf Shores Plantation by Mandoki Hospitality Vacation Rentals. Escape to Gulf Shores Plantation where memories last a lifetime.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Scroll down for the show notes on the new episode we recorded last night.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I will be speaking to a HeadStart group in Gadsden this morning… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Categories: Weather

WeatherBrains 510: We’re All Hung Over

Tue, 10/27/2015 - 06:24

WeatherBrains Episode 510 is now online (October 26, 2015). If you are crazy about weather, this is THE netcast audio program for your interest!

Tonight’s Guest WeatherBrain leads R&D for new products and intelligence to support business decisions at Weather Analytics in the role of Chief Science Officer. Previously, he worked on product development at the National Hurricane Center and served as the Science and Operations Officer at the Weather Prediction Center. He holds a PhD in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences from the University of Maryland. Dr. Wallace Hogsett, welcome to WeatherBrains. Tonight’s second Guest WeatherBrain is a show alum, having appeared on episode #434 in May 2014 when she was the Director of Summit Operations for the Mount Washington Observatory. She now works at Weather Analytics as the Director of Product Sciences. She is a meteorology graduate of Metropolitan State University of Denver with an emphasis in mathematics. Cyrena Arnold, welcome back to the show.

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

  • Heavy rain and tropical storm force winds along Gulf Coast
  • Hurricane Patricia and the media response
  • Fog Bank with Skydaver
  • Astronomy Outlook with Tony Rice
  • and more!

Our email bag officer is continuing to handle the incoming messages from our listeners.

From The Weather Center:

WeatherBrains 101: This week the professor and 101 have gone missing thanks to travel to the NWA annual conference in Oklahoma City as well as a stop over in Chicago. This segment will return next week.

Listener Surveys: Okay, we continue to drive this topic into the ground, but we really do like to hear from you. Many thanks to everyone who has taken the time to fill out the Listener Survey. The survey takes just a minute or two to complete and provides us with an opportunity to learn where you are and hear your thoughts and comments on the show. Click here to take the survey.

Web Sites from Episode 510:

To subscribe to the brand new SkyWritings, an email newsletter from the WeatherBrains gang, click HERE.

Picks of the Week:

Wallace Hogsett – Hurricane Patricia at Peak Intensity

Cyrena Arnold – Recon Photo of Hurricane Patricia

John Scala – NOAA Winter Weather Outlook

Kevin Selle – Group WeatherBrains Picture

James Spann – Univ. of Arizona Atmospheric Sciences

SkyDavers Blog – The Fog Bank

The WeatherBrains crew includes your host, James Spann, plus other notable geeks like Nate Johnson, Bill Murray, Dr. John Scala, Aubrey Urbanowicz, Rick Smith, Kevin Selle, and Brian Peters. They bring together a wealth of weather knowledge and experience for another fascinating netcast about weather.


WeatherBrains is a proud affiliate of NetAtmo Weather Stations.

Easy to install and affordable. Get your’s today!

You can monitor your data on iOS 4 or higher, Android 4.0 or higher, or a Windows Phone 8.0 or higher.

Categories: Weather

Breezy, Wet Weather Continues

Mon, 10/26/2015 - 15:06

RADAR CHECK: I do believe every square inch of Alabama has received a good bit of rain over the past 12 hours. Rain continues to fall this afternoon ahead of the “ghost of Patricia”… the remnants of former eastern Pacific Hurricane Patricia. Storm structure is pretty impressive… but it is not a classic warm core tropical storm. Still, winds on the Gulf Coast have gusted to 50 mph today with lots of flooding near the coast with very rough surf.

A flash flood watch remains in effect for far South Alabama, and SPC still defines a “marginal risk” of severe storms along the Central Gulf Coast tonight.

Up this way, rain continues tonight and tomorrow. Not enough rain for any flooding issues, and no severe weather problems. Most North/Central Alabama communities have received between 1 and 2 inches of rain so far, and an additional 1-2 inches of rain are possible through tomorrow night. Temperatures will go nowhere, holding mostly in the mid to upper 60s.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: Lingering showers are possible Wednesday, especially during the morning hours, and the sky will remain mostly cloudy with a high in the low to mid 70s. Thursday looks generally dry despite a cold front passing through; moisture will be very limited and the chance of rain with the front is so small we won’t mention it in the forecast. And, Friday looks to be a beautiful fall day with a good supply of sunshine; we start the day in the 40s, followed by a high around 70. Should be a great night for high school football.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Clouds return to the state Saturday ahead of the next rain maker to the west. The 12Z run of the GFS is a little slower; hinting it might be late Saturday night before the rain gets here. Meaning, trick or treaters might stay dry for their annual run. But, it is a very close call, and the timing could change again. Sunday looks like a wet day with periods of rain and possibly a thunderstorm. Highs for the weekend will be generally in the low 70s.

NEXT WEEK: Dry air returns Monday, and the first half of the week looks rain-free with highs in the 70s. See the Weather Xtreme Video for maps, graphics, and more details.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: Auburn hosts Ole Miss Saturday at Jordan-Hare Stadium at 11:00; at this point the weather looks mostly cloudy, but the chance of rain holds off until late Saturday night, well after the game is finished. Temperatures will rise from the upper 60s at kickoff into the low 70s by the fourth quarter.

Alabama takes the weekend off.

AT THE BEACH: Tomorrow will be another day of rain and gusty winds, but showers taper off Wednesday, and the weather will be dry Thursday and Friday with sunny days and fair nights. Next chance of rain comes up late in the weekend on Sunday… See the complete Gulf Coast 7 Day Planner here. The Gulf Coast Beach Forecast is presented by Gulf Shores Plantation by Mandoki Hospitality Vacation Rentals. Escape to Gulf Shores Plantation where memories last a lifetime.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show tonight at 8:30 CT… you can watch it on the web here.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I enjoyed seeing students today at Hillcrest High School in Tuscaloosa, and the fourth graders at Deer Valley Elementary in Hoover. Be looking for those 4th graders on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Categories: Weather

A Soaker For Alabama

Mon, 10/26/2015 - 06:20

DRY SPELL IS OVER: Yesterday was the 15th day in a row with no measurable rain for Birmingham, but the streak ends today. Widespread rain covers Alabama this morning, thanks to the “ghost of Patricia”…

The surface low, formerly Hurricane Patricia in the eastern Pacific, will move only slowly northeast, and we will deal with a steady light to moderate rain today, tonight, and tomorrow. There is a “marginal risk” of severe storms within the large rain mass on the Alabama Gulf Coast, where a few isolated waterspouts or small tornadoes are possible today. But, for the northern half of the state, just rain. Temperatures stay in the 60s through tomorrow.

We also note there is a flash flood watch for far South Alabama today, and a wind advisory for West Alabama, where east winds will average 15-25 mph, with higher gusts, due to the pressure gradient over the state.

HOW MUCH? Rain amounts for the northern half of the state will be in the 2-3 inch range, with amounts around 5 inches likely for far South Alabama and the Central Gulf Coast region.

WHEN WILL IT END? The rain tapers off Wednesday morning, with lingering showers possible. Most of the state should be dry by Wednesday afternoon as the deeper moisture pulls away to the northeast.

THURSDAY: A cold front will pass through the state, but it should come through in generally dry fashion, and we won’t mention any risk of showers in the formal forecast for now since it looks like the air will be pretty dry. We rise into the mid 70s Thursday afternoon.

FRIDAY: This looks like a delightful day, with a sunny sky and a high in the mid to upper 70s. Great weather for high school football games Friday night.

HALLOWEEN WEEKEND: The next rain maker to the west of the state will push clouds into Alabama as the weekend begins, and it looks like rain become likely late Saturday afternoon, Saturday night, and into Sunday. Rain amounts should exceed one inch with this system, and thunderstorms are possible as well. Bottom line is that the weather looks pretty wet for trick or treaters Saturday night at this point; highs for the weekend will be in the 70s.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: Auburn hosts Ole Miss Saturday at Jordan-Hare Stadium at 11:00; at this point the weather looks mostly cloudy, with some risk of rain very late in the game. Temperatures will rise from the low 70s at kickoff into the mid 70s by the fourth quarter.

Alabama takes the weekend off.

AT THE BEACH: Soaking rain for the Gulf Coast today and tonight, lingering rain possible tomorrow, then dry Wednesday through Friday with mostly sunny days and fair nights; highs in the 70s. See the complete Gulf Coast 7 Day Planner here. The Gulf Coast Beach Forecast is presented by Gulf Shores Plantation by Mandoki Hospitality Vacation Rentals. Escape to Gulf Shores Plantation where memories last a lifetime.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show tonight at 8:30p CT… you can watch it live here.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

I have weather programs today at Hillcrest High School in Tuscaloosa, and Deer Valley Elementary in Hoover…look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day and stay dry!

Categories: Weather

Rain Closing in on Alabama

Sun, 10/25/2015 - 21:29

As you can see from the image immediately below this paragraph, the rain which has been slowly but steadily advancing eastward all day has finally begun reaching into Central Alabama. A small junk of rain has reaching Montgomery while much heavier rain has moved into Southwest Alabama. Rain is also coming across the Alabama/Mississippi line from about Russellville in Colbert County southward to Demopolis in northern Marengo County. A time lapse of the last few radar images still indicated more of a northward component than an eastward component to the motion of the large rain area. But the bottom line it is moving into Central Alabama and by early Monday much of Central Alabama will have seen at least some rain.

Rainfall is still expected to be heavy over the next couple of days especially along the Gulf Coast. As you can see from the WPC QPF map below, 4 to 7 inches of rain is forecast along the Gulf Coast from Central Louisiana eastward to near Apalachicola over the next five days. Rainfall totals across Central and North Alabama are likely to fall within the 1.5 to 3.5 inch amounts. Fortunately, thanks to a relatively long dry spell of about two weeks, flash flooding is not expected to be a problem for us. But we still need to monitor what is unfolding in case the atmosphere produces more or heavier rain that we are anticipating.

James will have the next full Weather Xtreme Video here by 7 am on Monday.

-Brian-

Categories: Weather

Rain is on the Way

Sun, 10/25/2015 - 15:05

It is another mainly cloudy afternoon with just a few areas of filtered sunshine sneaking through, but for the most part, it is a gray day. It is also very with most spots sitting in the lower and mid 70s. Most of Central Alabama is rain free, but we are beginning to see some returns on the radar for North Alabama as well as portions of Western Alabama close to the state line. The rest of the afternoon, most of us should stay dry, however, overnight, the rain will arrive and make itself at home.

We don’t have to look that far west to see very heavy rain is falling in Mississippi, Louisiana, Texas, and Arkansas. All this rain is associated with the remnants of Hurricane Patricia. It is slowly moving east/northeast and will be making for a very wet start to the work week.
Overnight, this rain mass will move into Alabama and we are in store for a soaking rain. To start the work week, grab the rain gear as we should all see rain at some point.

With the slow progression of the system, we are going to see several days with rain. Over the next several days, many locations across Central Alabama are likely to see 1-3 inches of rain, with some heavier totals possible for some locations. Certainly some beneficial and much needed rain for the state. There are flash flood watches along the Gulf Coast, but for much of Alabama, no watches and these are not expected as it has been so dry lately.

With the clouds and rain, expect cool days with temperatures hanging into the 60s. Thankfully, severe weather is not expected, but with a tight pressure gradient, we will be seeing breezy conditions with winds of 10-20 mph and higher gusts possible.

Categories: Weather

Rain Poised for Central Alabama

Sun, 10/25/2015 - 07:20

Clouds blanket just about all of the Southeast US as a surface low spins across the Northwest Gulf, that low coming out of the remnants of Patricia. Already portions of South and Southeast Texas have seen 10 to 20 inches of rain with significant flooding along with the heavy rainfall. The upper trough over Texas is going to be slow to move eastward today, so while the radar continued to show a massive area of rain to our west, that rain will only gradually move eastward today so rain chances will be highest over the western sections and lowest over the eastern sections.

By early Monday, the surface low should move to southern Louisiana spreading rain over just about all of the Southeast US. Rainfall will be heavy at times with the highest amounts over the next five days of 4 to 7 inches along the coast from Lake Charles to Pensacola. Flash flood watches were posted from the extreme western sections of the Florida Panhandle westward to the Houston area – see the graphic. Hopefully, the dry conditions of the last couple of weeks will limit the threat of flash flooding across much of Alabama and Mississippi outside of the coastal areas, but we’ll need to keep an eye on exactly how the rains develop.

In addition to the rain threat, a gale watch for high wind has also been posted for much of the near shore waters of the Central Gulf of Mexico from Houston to Pensacola. Definitely not a good environment for any boating.

Severe weather will be limited to the immediate coastal counties for the next couple of days. As the strength of this system winds down on Tuesday and Wednesday, the severe weather risk will also decrease.

Rain will begin to impact the beaches of Alabama and Northwest Florida this evening as the surface low over Louisiana moves slowly on a north-northeast track. Rain will be heavy through the day and night Monday, with some thunderstorms involved. Rainfall amounts will be heavy, running 3 to 5 inches for areas from the Mississippi coast eastward to Pensacola, with lower amounts east of that with up to 2 to 3 inches from Pensacola to Panama City. By Tuesday, the heavy rain will shift to eastern sections, and eastern sections may see two more inches. Highs will settle back in the 70s for the week ahead, with lows trending through the 60s and into the 50s by next weekend. Water temperatures are hanging tough in the lower and middle 70s. There will be a pretty significant rip current threat, especially from Monday through Wednesday with strong onshore flow. See the complete Gulf Coast 7 Day Planner here. The Gulf Coast Beach Forecast is presented by Gulf Shores Plantation by Mandoki Hospitality Vacation Rentals. Escape to Gulf Shores Plantation where memories last a lifetime.

For those with plans for the races at Talladega today, look for a cloudy sky with only a small chance, about 10 percent, of any rain. Clouds will limit the temperature, so I expect to see highs only climb into the middle 70s. Rain chances will climb quickly for the Talladega area into early Monday morning.

Upper level support for the surface low will diminish into mid-week as the surface low also runs into the large surface high over the eastern US. This will result in the rain area slowly decreasing into mid-week. At the same time, a strong trough will be moving out of western Canada developing a hefty trough over the eastern US by Thursday. This will help to clear out the moisture and dry us out with a couple of fine days for the end of the week and into the weekend. This means our temperatures will drop back nicely with lows in the 40s and highs in the 60s for the end of the week and into the weekend. There should also be some much drier air as dew points fall back with much lowered humidity.

The good weather will continue into at least the first half of the weekend. Another trough coming out of the Southwest US Sunday will bring increased rain chances for the start of next week. Depending on the exact speed of this next system, we might see rain chances by late Sunday.

Looking out into voodoo country, that system should get by us by the middle of week 2. It will be followed by another deep trough around the 5th of November. Just like yesterdays run, this appears to have some potential for severe weather followed by another cool down.

James Spann will be back with the next edition of the Weather Xtreme Video bright and early Monday morning. Check back here often for updates on this developing rain situation. Have a great day and Godspeed.

-Brian-

Categories: Weather

Saturday Afternoon Forecast Ramblings

Sat, 10/24/2015 - 14:23

Like yesterday, a field of low level cumulus clouds has developed underneath a canopy of high clouds streaming across from the system to the west.

Clouds are thicker over northwestern sections, and the further southeast that you go, the more sun you will find.

Consequently, temperatures are in the middle and upper 70s over northwestern sections, ranging to around 80F in the I-59 corridor and into the lower 80s over South Central sections.

A few light showers has been able to reach the ground over the Tennessee Valley. Huntsville and Decatur have both picked up a trace of precipitation this morning and Muscle Shoals has measured 0.01 inches. Further south, a few light showers and on radar, but most of the precipitation is not reaching the ground. We can’t rule out a light shower at Tuscaloosa for the Alabama/Tennessee game, but significant problems are not anticipated.

Heavy rain covers much of eastern Texas and northwestern Louisiana this afternoon. There are numerous flash flood warnings over Texas and even a tornado warning west of Corpus Christi. This activity is associated with the deep tropical moisture flowing in from the Gulf of Mexico ahead of the remnants of Tropical Depression Patricia, which is over Central Mexico this afternoon.

The low will track to near the Rio Grande by this evening, dissipating as a tropical low. But its energy will help to spin up a non-tropical low on the Lower Texas Coast near Brownsville tonight that will start moving northeast. There will likely be some brief spin up tornadoes this afternoon and through the evening as the old low dissipates and a new low forms.

Meanwhile, Alabama should remain mainly dry through the overnight hours and into the early morning, except for a few showers over the Tennessee Valley. The main shield of rain will push across Louisiana just ahead of the surface low Sunday morning. Rain will start moving into West Alabama late Sunday night and will spread slowly across Central Alabama during the morning.

The low will begin to slow as it runs into a mountain of a high pressure system centered over New England. This huge anticyclone will block the storm’s progress and it will weaken as the upper level support energizing it weakens and dies. The system should have enough oomph left to produce heavy rain across Central Alabama during the day on Monday. We can actually use it, so keep your fingers crossed.

Showers will still be possible on Tuesday as the dying system languishes across the area.

A second trough will be organizing to the northwest and will sweep across the area Tuesday night into Wednesday, pushing a cold front through Alabama. An area of showers and thunderstorms will precede the front.

Today’s 80s may be the last we see for awhile. Expect highs in the middle 70s tomorrow, trending back to the upper 60s to lower 70s Monday through Wednesday with the rain.

Drier and cooler conditions will prevail for the remainder of the week into the weekend, with highs around 70F. Lows will be in the 50s Thursday morning and in the 40s Friday morning.

A few showers will work back into the area by Saturday evening as trick or treaters get ready to head out. Rain won’t be widespread or heavy, but it could dampen things a bit.

Categories: Weather

Waiting on the Rains

Sat, 10/24/2015 - 07:45

If you are a weather enthusiast, then you have probably been watching the drama unfolding as the strongest hurricane ever, Patricia, has made its way ashore south of Puerto Vallarta. And now it looks like Patricia will play a role in our weather as things turn wet for the first of next week.

The sky has become increasingly cloudy overnight which has helped to influence temperatures tremendously with the morning lows today primarily in the middle and upper 60s, about 12 to 15 degrees above the seasonal values we usually see for the latter part of October. Rain ahead of Patricia will move closer to Alabama but it looks like it will stay away until late on Sunday and into early Monday morning.

If you are headed for Tuscaloosa where Alabama will host Tennessee at 2:30 pm today, the sky will be mostly cloudy, but dry. While we can’t completely rule out a stray shower, there is nothing significant expected. Temperatures will drop from near 80 at kickoff into the mid 70s by the final whistle. And Auburn is on the road as they travel to Fayetteville to take on the Arkansas Razorbacks at 11:00 am. The day will be cloudy but it looks like most of the rain has moved south and east of Fayetteville so the game should be dry. Temperatures will be in the lower 60s with a northwesterly breeze.

For the races at Talladega, the sky will be mostly cloudy today and Sunday. We can’t rule out a brief shower or a touch of light rain Sunday, the most widespread rain should stay west of the track Sunday arriving early Monday morning. Temperatures will peak around 80 today and in the mid to upper 70s Sunday.

Monday we start the week out wet as the remains of Patricia move slowly northeastward. The future course of these remains is still somewhat uncertain. The Euro and GFS continue to bring those remains over the extreme Northwest Gulf but very close to the Texas coastline. Water temperatures in this area are about 3 to 5 degrees C colder than what Patricia enjoyed off the Mexican coast. This together with the center of the low remaining close to the coastline, it would be unlikely that the remains would be able to gather much strength. It is still possible that the remnant low could become a depression or maybe a tropical storm, but unlikely that it could gain enough strength to become a hurricane. Plus, if the center of the remnant low remains over land, little intensification is likely. But in that same vein, if it moves over the Gulf further from shore, it would have somewhat better chances for development.

No matter what it does, rain is going to cover much of the Lower Mississippi River Valley and the Southeast for Monday and Tuesday with rainfall amounts over Alabama potentially in the 2 to 3 inch range. And as we know, any deviation of the storm centers track even a little could raise or lower those values. Since we’ve had nearly two full weeks without rain, the potential for flash flooding remains low but not zero.

An upper air trough should swing through the Central US Tuesday and Wednesday and push what’s left of Patricia northeast away from the Southeast US ending our rain temporarily. We should see a slight warming for the end of the week as we come under an upper ridge. But the moist southwesterly flow ahead of another trough aloft Saturday and Sunday promises some more rainfall for late in the weekend and into week 2.

Voodoo country shows some potential for both wet weather and a significant cold shot. A trough comes out early in week 2 to bring rain chances. But by the end of the week as we head into November, a deep trough is forecast over the eastern US which could spell both a round of severe weather as well as a substantial chill down.

I expect to have the next Weather Xtreme Video here Sunday morning. I’m enjoying some time in Chicago with my daughter, so it may not get posted real early on Sunday morning. Enjoy the day and Godspeed.

-Brian-

Categories: Weather

Eyes On Patricia

Fri, 10/23/2015 - 15:21

THIS AFTERNOON: It is a warm, dry day across the great state of Alabama with a mix of sun and clouds; temperatures are pretty close to 80 degrees in most spots. Nothing on radar around here.

OUR WEEKEND: Most of the action will be west of Alabama, where flooding potential will continue over the eastern half of Texas, Louisiana, and Arkansas. Around here we expect a mostly cloudy sky tomorrow and Sunday with a high close to 80 tomorrow, and in the mid to upper 70s Sunday. We will introduce the risk of widely scattered showers tomorrow, mainly over North and West Alabama, but nothing too widespread or heavy. Pretty much the same situation Sunday… a shower is possible, but the big, organized rain areas stays just to the west.

NEXT WEEK: The “ghost of Patricia” will be just south of the Louisiana coast Monday in the form of a tropical low. There is a chance it regenerates into a tropical depression, or even a tropical storm. But, the impact will be the same; rain and flooding will be the primary threat… it is not expected to become a hurricane over the Gulf due to cooler water and unfavorable upper air conditions.

Showers will begin to increase across Alabama Sunday night, and widespread rain is likely Monday and Tuesday. Rain amounts of at least 1 to 2 inches seem likely; some spots could get more. And, Tuesday will be a windy day with a tight pressure gradient between the low to the west, and a strong high to the east. South winds Tuesday will be in the 15-30 mph range, with higher gusts. While severe storms are not expected, the combination of the gradient wind Tuesday and heavy rain could be responsible for knocking down a few trees.

We will need to maintain the chance of rain on Wednesday, and some thunderstorms could be involved as well with a cold front moving in from the west. Then, cooler and drier air will arrive Thursday and Friday. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

PATRICIA: This historic hurricane in the eastern Pacific features a central pressure of 879 millibars, or 25.96″, and sustained winds of 200 mph. It will make landfall soon on the Mexican coast.

The hurricane will weaken quickly over Mexico tomorrow, but the remnant low will emerge over the far western Gulf of Mexico late in the weekend.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: Dry and pleasant weather for the high school games tonight; temperatures will fall through the 70s.

Alabama will host Tennessee at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa tomorrow (2:30p CT kickoff). The sky will be mostly cloudy, and a brief shower, or a little light rain is possible during the game. Nothing heavy, nothing widespread. Temperatures will drop from near 80 at kickoff, into the mid 70s by the final whistle.

Auburn is on the road; they travel to Fayetteville to take on the Arkansas Razorbacks at 11:00a CT tomorrow. The day will be cloudy and wet; showers are likely during the game, but the good news is that now it looks like the heaviest rain could very well be south and east of Fayetteville at game time. Temperatures will be in the mid 60s.

RACE WEEKEND AT TALLADEGA: The sky will be mostly cloudy at the Talledega Superspeedway tomorrow and Sunday. I can’t rule out a brief shower, or a touch of light rain each day, but the most widespread rain should be well to the west of the track. Temperatures will peak in the upper 70s tomorrow, and mid to upper 70s Sunday.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

I had a great time today visiting with the 6th graders at Hanceville Middle School in Cullman County… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! My next Weather Xtreme video will be posted bright and early Monday morning by 7:00… Brian Peters will have the video updates tomorrow and Sunday. Enjoy the weekend!

Categories: Weather

Good News From our Friends at the Alabama NewsCenter

Fri, 10/23/2015 - 14:34

It was a week of mergers, movies, mansions, football, a retiring coach, real estate and a double dose of pimento cheese over at Alabama NewsCenter.  Here are some of our favorite stories from our partners there from the last seven days.

Football preview: Alabama welcomes Tennessee as Auburn calls on the Hogs.

 

Birmingham’s Roy Wood Jr. trying to live up to ‘Daily Show’ legacy.

 

Caleb Castille talks about taking on Tony Nathan role in ‘Woodlawn’.

 

15-bedroom Alabama mansion, 27-acre estate up for Halloween auction.

 

Alabama Power’s innovative use of program helped land $100 million auto supplier.

 

Birmingham’s Enrollment Advisors buying division of Boston’s HighRoads.

 

Preston Goldfarb: ‘This has been one of the greatest loves of my life … Now it’s time to move on’.

 

Can’t Miss Alabama: NASCAR, ice skating and other outdoor ideas.

 

Alabama Bright Lights: Slice Pizza and Brew.

 

Alabama Power gets in the MIX with millennials.

 

Rotaract, BBA and MIX join forces to blaze a trail at Red Mountain Park.

 

Montgomery Commissioner Ronda Walker ‘fights the valiant fight’ against breast cancer.

 

Meet UAB Dr. Kirby Bland: ‘We will conquer the enemy, breast cancer’.

 

Calera turns pink to help fight breast cancer.

 

100 Dishes to Eat in Alabama Before You Die: Savage’s Bakery and Deli pimento cheese.

 

Spreading herself grins: Loxley woman’s pimento cheese business makes her smile.

 

Alabama Shakespeare Festival driving Greta Lambert to myriad roles.

 

SEOPA’s return to Alabama comes full circle in Eufaula.

 

Alabama September residential sales up 17 percent over last year.

 

Birmingham metro September residential sales up 3 percent from 2014.

 

Mobile-area September home sales up 18 percent over same month last year.

 

Alabama Gulf Coast September condo sales up 15 percent vs. September 2014.

 

Dothan area home sales in September up 27 percent from prior year.

 

$32 million Regent Club Hotel looks to transform gameday experience in Tuscaloosa.

 

Alabama Power renewables proposal sparks interest from customers, developers.

 

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Southern Co. CEO Tom Fanning key speaker at LAMPAC.

Categories: Weather

Patricia Strongest Hurricane Ever in Western Hemisphere

Fri, 10/23/2015 - 11:37

Hurricane Patricia in the eastern Pacific underwent an incredible rapid intensification yesterday and overnight and aircraft reconnaissance found 175 knot winds (200 mph) just before 2 a.m. this morning. The central pressure was estimated at 880 millibars. I say estimated, because the dropsonde instrument used to record pressure, wind, temperature and other parameters did not splash down in the true center of the hurricane. The instrument recorded 885 mb and the crew estimated that the minimum pressure was 880 mb.

The winds make Patricia the strongest hurricane ever observed in the western hemisphere. Patricia is stronger than Wilma from 2005, which had the distinction of having the lowest central pressure observed in the Atlantic (882 millibars). And the top winds of 175 knots are certainly the strongest observed in any tropical cyclone around the world since 1970. Wind speeds were probably routinely overestimated prior to 1970. Patricia is stronger than Haiyan, which has 170 mph winds in the northwestern Pacific and Allen, which had 165 knot winds in 1980 in the North Atlantic.

Typhoon Tip still holds the distinction of having the minimum central pressure observed around the globe, with 870 millibars measured by reconnaissance on October 12, 1979. But Tip’s winds were 165 knots, short of Patricia’s record this morning.

Water temperatures underneath Patricia are running 30C, which is about 1 degree C warmer than they have been ever observed in the past 34 years. Cloud tops around the center have warmed a bit in the past couple of hours, perhaps indicating some weakening, but catastrophic conditions will occur along the coast near and east of where the center makes landfall. Fortunately, there are no major population centers in the swath where the maximum effects are expected to occur.

Landfall will come early this evening on the Mexican coast west of Manzanillo in the state of Jalisco. This is southeast of Puerto Vallarta, where they will experience tropical storm force winds in just a couple of hours and strong tropical force winds by 7-8 p.m. tonight. Hurricane conditions may remain just east of Puerto Vallarta.

It will turn to the north northeast over the mountainous terrain of Mexico. It should weaken to tropical storm force by tomorrow afternoon and become a remnant low by Sunday. It will bring torrential rains to Mexico and South Texas even as it weakens. The remnant low will get revitalize over Coastal Texas over the weekend and could bring heavy rain to southern and eastern Texas, as well as southern Louisiana. The WPC is calling for widespread 3-8 inch amounts from the eastern half of Texas all the way into Arkansas and western Mississippi and western Tennessee.

As the low moves slowly northeast, it may bring a nice rain event to Alabama by next Tuesday with an inch of rain possible.

Categories: Weather

Warm, Dry Weather For Alabama

Fri, 10/23/2015 - 06:41

ANOTHER WARM OCTOBER DAY: We project a high in the low to mid 80s today, well above the average high of 72 for October 23. Also, today will be the 13th consecutive day with no measurable rain for Birmingham and most of the state. The sky will be partly sunny.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Some uncertainty has creeped into the forecast situation. High resolution models are now showing a marked increase in moisture tomorrow, and with the tail end of an upper trough passing through North Alabama, we might need to consider adjusting the forecast to include some risk of showers during the day. The higher chance will be over the northern third of the state (north of a line from Hamilton to Cullman to Gadsden), but the high resolution NAM hints showers might form as far south as I-20 in a few spots.

And, with the higher moisture pool in place, we might need to consider some risk of showers on Sunday as well, especially for North and West Alabama. For now I will just insert an outside chance of a shower in the forecast both days with more clouds than sun; let’s look at the new 12Z data later this morning before making big changes. We will adjust highs for the weekend downward into the 70s due to the increased cloud cover.

NEXT WEEK: A tropical low, the remnant of what is now powerful Hurricane Patricia in the eastern Pacific, will move into Louisiana from the western Gulf of Mexico, and will pull deep moisture into the state. Rain should become rather widespread Monday and Tuesday, with potential for heavy rain at times. The current look advertised by models suggests no risk of severe storms, just lots of rain.

Rain amounts of at least 1 to 2 inches are likely, and some spots could see even more. Showers could linger into Wednesday, and then cooler and drier air follows for Thursday and Friday.

PATRICIA: This is now the strongest eastern Pacific hurricane on record, with explosive deepening over the past 24 hours. The pressure is now down to 880 millibars, or 25.99″, and top sustained winds are at 200 mph.

It will make landfall on the Pacific coast of Mexico later today with potential for catastrophic damage. While it will weaken over northern Mexico, there is some chance it redevelops to some degree over the far western Gulf of Mexico near the Texas coast Monday. Development into a tropical storm is not totally out of the question, water temperatures are cooler and upper air winds don’t favor any rapid deepening.

One way or another, it will bring more heavy rain to East Texas, and that deeper moisture will spread into Alabama.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: Dry and pleasant weather for the high school games tonight; temperatures will fall through the 70s.

Alabama will host Tennessee at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa tomorrow (2:30p CT kickoff). The sky will be mostly cloudy, and we will need to adjust the forecast now to mention some risk of a shower, or a little light rain during the game. Temperatures will fall from the upper 70s at kickoff into the mid 70s by the fourth quarter.

Auburn is on the road; they travel to Fayetteville to take on the Arkansas Razorbacks at 11:00a CT tomorrow. The day will be cloudy and wet; showers are likely during the game, but the good news is that now it looks like the heaviest rain could very well be south and east of Fayetteville at game time. Temperatures will be in the mid 60s.

RACE WEEKEND: The sky will be mostly cloudy at the Talledega Superspeedway tomorrow and Sunday, but only a slight risk of a shower both days. Highs will be in the mid to upper 70s.

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I have a weather program this morning at Hanceville Middle School in Cullman County… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Categories: Weather