ABC 33/40 Weather Blog

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Don’t look, but winter has returned to the Southeast US. At 6 am, it was 61 at Anniston and 44 at Birmingham. Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas saw a record snowfall event yesterday! Just what is happening with this weather?

Well, the real answer is we have an atypical cold core upper low situated over the Lower Mississippi River Valley, and it will be moving slowly east for the next couple of days, creating some interesting forecast challenges for meteorologists. The surface front bisected Central Alabama with the eastern sections warm and cozy while the western sections were shivering with spots dipping all the way down to the upper 30s. Today, even if the clouds break and we see some sun which western sections are likely to do, the temperatures will not get out of the 50s. In fact, I would not be surprised to see a few spots not get to 50 degrees! Let’s see, it is May, right?

The real culprit in our unseasonably chilly weather is an upper cold core low the was centered over North Central Arkansas this morning. The upper low will move slowly across the Southeast US over the next couple of days, keeping temperatures unseasonably cold with our high not expected to break back into the 70s until Tuesday afternoon. Overnight, rain associated with the surface front and the upper low brought widespread 1 to 2 inch amounts to much of Central Alabama. For areas west of I-65, the rain is essentially over, while areas to the east of I-65 will stay west through much of the morning hours. I do expect to see the rain clearing the state by early afternoon. Look for the afternoon highs today to climb all the way into the lower 50s!!

With the influence of the upper low still affecting us, we’ll remain chilly Sunday with some spots dipping into the upper 30s for lows Sunday morning. The chilly air mass will keep highs in the 50s once again. And due to the step change in temperature, we could see some scattered thunderstorms with the potential for small hail. SPC does not outlook any area for severe weather, so I believe the hail should remain small and below severe limits – that’s 1 inch hail or bigger to be severe.

Showers remain a possibility on Monday but we should climb into the 60s with the lower 70s on Tuesday. By Tuesday the closed low should be over South Carolina, so we warm up nicely as the influence of that low begins to lessen. We’ll be under ridging aloft which should continue into Thursday and Friday. By Friday, the next system, a double barreled one at that, begins to take shape west of us. One trough will be coming out of the northern Rockies across Nebraska while a second one will be coming out of the Four Corners area. The two will apparently not phase up, so the northern one slips into the Great Lakes on Saturday while the southern one closes off over Northern Mexico. This should put us in a warm pattern with passing clouds, but for now it sure looks like we stay dry with the wetter weather off to our west.

Week 2 sees a return to a cool pattern with a fairly deep trough along the Mississippi River. While certainly not as cool as the present pattern, this sets a trend for what could be a rather cool-ish May.

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Heading out shortly to set up a rainfall station for the Crawfish Boil in downtown Birmingham. I’ll be providing weather support for the event, and though it looks cool, it should be primarily dry for the music. I hope that you have a great day. I will have the next Weather Xtreme Video posted first thing on Sunday morning. Have a great day and Godspeed.

-Brian-

A gentle soaking rain fell across the western two thirds of Central Alabama overnight. The rain is just getting into far eastern Alabama.

1.40 inches of rain so far at the Birmingham airport since the precipitation began just before 4 p.m. yesterday.

The rain has ended at Tuscaloosa pretty much as expected.

The back edge of the rain is pushing slowly across western Jefferson County now but may not clear the City of Birmingham until 9-10 a.m.

Of course, lots of folks at Talladega, where it is raining steadily now. It looks like that rain will start to taper off by early afternoon, but light rain may continue to fall off and on until sunset. This could spell trouble for the Aaron’s 312 at 2 p.m. We will just have to watch radar trends.

Tomorrow’s race may have a couple of delays but shouldn’t be a washout. Bands of showers with some thunder, and even some small hail will develop by noon tomorrow across the areas. They will be rotating around an extremely unusual upper low that will be pivoting slowly eastward along I-20. Highs will be in the 50s west of I-65 with some lower 60s to the east.

No flooding so far, although there could be some tonight from Heflin to Centre/Fort Payne to Scottsboro if a band of heavier rain develops as depicted on the NAM.

No thunder involved now. But there could be tomorrow with a convectively unstable situation setting up thanks to some very cold air aloft moving over Alabama with the upper low.

It will be chilly, especially over the east. 40s in East Alabama where it rains most of the day. Lower 50s around Birmingham where it stays cloudy most of the day. West Alabama will see 60F degree readings in places like Hamilton and Carrollton and Livingston and Tuscaloosa and Fayette since sunshine will out all day. It’s already sunny in those spots now.

WET OVERNIGHT: No doubt tonight will feature soaking rain around the Superspeedway… additional rain amounts one inch are likely. And, colder air will move in as well; temperatures over Talladega County will drop down into the 40s after midnight.

TODAY (SATURDAY): Rain will end slowly from west to east during the midday hours as a dry slot moves into Alabama, rotating around a deep, cold core upper low just west of Memphis. Below is the latest high resolution NAM model, valid at 3 p.m. CT tomorrow…

It is about that time that the rain should be moving out of Talladega. So, expect a cold rain during the morning hours, with the rain ending sometime in the 1-4 p.m. time frame. Hopefully that will allow enough time for the running of the Aaron’s 312. The sun might even break out late tomorrow afternoon around the track.

The day will be cold for May; the high will be only in the low to mid 50s, and that will easily break the old record low maximum temperature for May 4, 60 set in 1967.

SUNDAY: The cold core upper low will move right over Alabama, and showers will form during the day. Below is the high resolution NAM, valid at 1pm Sunday…

Bands of showers will rotate around the upper low as it moves through. No, the rain won’t last all day Sunday, but a shower will be possible at any time. And, because of the very cold air aloft, the showers could feature some hail, even with no thunder and lightning. And, a cold air funnel or two is not out of the question; those are rarely dangerous and generally don’t get close to the ground.

I think at least one or two delays is likely for the Aaron’s 499 Sunday afternoon, but they have a chance of getting the race in between showers.

The weather stays cool Sunday with a high in the low to mid 60s.

Watch the blog for fresh forecast updates over the weekend…

A cold front is working its way slowly across Central Alabama tonight. It has reached western Jefferson County. Its forward speed is less than 15 mph, and it should slow even further overnight. This hour, it is 62F at the Birmingham Airport, but only 48F in Tuscaloosa. It is 43F in Starkville, MS.

The front is preceded by a line of heavy showers that will be crossing the Birmingham Metro area. Those showers extend south to near Selma. A mass of moderate showers covers much of western Jefferson, Walker, Winston and Fayette Counties. There was some lightning earlier in northern Pickens and southern Lamar counties, but that has since ceased. SO no chance of any severe weather, let alone even barely any thunder.

Moderate showers are over eastern Alabama from DeKalb County southward into Clay County. It is raining in Talladega right now.

The rain will continue to increase in coverage through the overnight hours and will extend through much of the morning over western sections. The rain will continue through much of the afternoon in areas east of I-65.

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

RADAR CHECK: Rain was a no-show for much of Alabama during the morning, but showers are increasing quickly over the central counties of the state this afternoon. Temperatures are generally warmer than forecast due to the lack of showers; most places are in the 70-75 degree range.

HUGE CONTRAST: Oxford, Mississipi reports 43 degrees at mid-afternoon, which is remarkable for May 3. That is below their record low, and it being reported in the middle of the afternoon. But, cross the surface front and Muscle Shoals, Alabama is at 76 degrees.

WET NIGHT: Showers will continue to increase rapidly this evening over all of Alabama, and the large mass of light to moderate rain will invade the state as well. Bottom line is that rain is likely tonight… no severe storms and probably no thunder. Just a soaking; the NWS in Huntsville maintains an “aerial flood watch” for their county warning area… or the counties over the Tennessee Valley plus Cullman County. Rain amounts of 1 to 2 inches are likely between now and tomorrow morning.

TOMORROW: The rain will end from west to east during the morning and midday hours as a dry slot rotates into Alabama around a deep, cold core upper low over Arkansas. Here is the approximate time when you can expect the rain to end…

Tuscaloosa 8-9am
Birmingham 10-11am
Anniston/Gadsden 12 Noon-2pm

A good chance the sun breaks out tomorrow afternoon, but the day will be cold. In fact, both the NAM and GFS models are showing a high only in the upper 50s tomorrow… the record low maximum temperature for May 4, 60 set in 1967, will likely be shattered. It will be one of our coldest May days on record in our state.

SUNDAY: The cold core upper low will move right on top of us Sunday afternoon. This means another cold, unsettled day. The sun will be out at times, but occasional showers are likely. And, due to the cold air aloft, showers Sunday could produce hail or graupel (soft hail) even with no thunder or lightning. And, on top of that, we might even hear of a cold air funnel in spots due to the upper low. Those are rarely dangerous and don’t touch the ground since they tend to form with stable low level air, like we will have Sunday.

Not sure we will make it out of the 50s Sunday, but if we see a few decent intervals of sun we might make it to the low 60s.

RACE WEEKEND: Scroll down for a detailed post on expect conditions at the Talladega Superspeedway this weekend.

NEXT WEEK: The upper low will be near Rome, Georgia Monday, so we will maintain a chance of showers Monday, especially over the eastern two thirds of the state. We stay cool with a high in the 60s.

Tuesday the ULL will be north of Charleston, and most of the state will be dry with just a slight risk of a shower near the Georgia border. Then, we will be rain-free Wednesday and Thursday with a nice warming trend; a good chance we see low 80s by the latter half of the week.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

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I had a great time today visiting with the 3rd graders at Vincent Elementary School… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow… Brian Peters will handle the videos tomorrow and Sunday… my next video will be up early Monday. Enjoy the weekend!

An update for NASCAR fans…

THIS AFTERNOON: The rain so far today over much of Alabama has been a no-show, but we note areas of light rain developing now over East Alabama, and over Talladega County. So, a few periods of light rain are possible between now and sundown. Temperatures are in the low 70s now.

TONIGHT: A large organized mass of moderate rain will move into East Alabama tonight… especially after 9:00 p.m. Around one inch of rain is likely from about 9:00 tonight through mid-morning tomorrow. No severe weather, and probably no thunder. Just a soaking rain. See the current radar below and the rain mass that is moving into West Alabama now.

TOMORROW: The latest 4km high-res NAM model shows the rain ending at the Superspeedway in the 10-11 a.m. time frame…

The sun should break out tomorrow afternoon with only a small risk of a stray shower for the Aaron’s 312.

We should note tomorrow will be a very cool May day… the high will be only in the upper 50s; we expect a record low maximum temperature for May 4.

SUNDAY: The early morning hours will be cold; the low around the track will be near 40 degrees… again right at record levels. One or two thermometers might even reach the upper 30s. The firewood guys will be happy.

A cold core upper low will move right over the Superspeedway Sunday afternoon, meaning showers are possible at just about any time during the day. Below is the high res NAM valid at 1:00 p.m. CT Sunday… showing showers rotating around the upper low near the Superspeedway…

I think they get the race in Sunday, but one or two rain delays are likely. And, once again the day will be amazingly cool for early May with a high only around 60 degrees.

One more note… due to the very cold air aloft over Alabama Sunday, the showers could produce some small hail, or graupel (soft hail)… even with no thunder or lightning.

We will post updates here as needed through the weekend.

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

COLD CORE UPPER LOW: Yep, these are a “weatherman’s woe”… and one will move right on top of Alabama this weekend making for a challenging forecast. We will lay out the weekend in great detail below, but expect a surprise or two along the way. We note measurable snow is falling over Arkansas for the first time on record during the month of May this morning. This has really been a remarkable system.

Here is the day by day breakdown…

TODAY: Clouds will cover Alabama today, and rain will increase as the day goes on. The radar is pretty quiet now, but upward atmospheric motion should bring periods of rain to most communities by the afternoon. We won’t get out of the 60s, generally speaking, but one or two places could touch 70.

Rain should be widespread tonight, and locally heavy. The NWS in Huntsville has gone with an “aerial flood watch” for all of their counties (Colbert, Cullman, Franklin, Lauderdale, Lawrence, Limestone, Morgan, De Kalb, Jackson, Madison, Marshall) as rain amounts of over two inches are possible there. Down this way (Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Anniston, Gadsden)… rain amounts should be closer to one inch.

TOMORROW: We will begin the day with rain statewide, but a dry slot will work into Alabama from the west, and according the rain should end from west to east during the day. The exact time that rain will end in your neighborhood is very hard to call… the NAM has come in a little slower, but the RPM a little faster with the arrival of the dry slot.

Best estimate for now… the rain will end in Tuscaloosa by 11:00 a.m…. Birmingham by 1:00 p.m… Anniston/Gadsden by 3:00 p.m. The sky will clear, and much of West and Central Alabama should see some afternoon sunshine. Communities near the Georgia border could be dealing with clouds and rain most of the day, however.

Tomorrow will be a very cool May day; the GFS and the NAM are printing a high of only 60 degrees for Birmingham… meaning many communities won’t get out of the 50s. The record lowest maximum temperature for Birmingham tomorrow is 60 degrees set in 1967… and that record could very well be in danger.

SUNDAY: The cold core upper low goes right over us, and some strange things can happen in this situation. First off, the weather Sunday will remain very cool for May. We will begin the day in the 39-43 degree range, and I am not sure we get out of the 50s. Sunday’s record low maximum temperature is also 60 (set in 1917)… that that one could be in danger as well.

We could see a bit of sunshine Sunday, but the day will be generally cloudy, and showers are likely. Due to the very cold air aloft with the upper low, some of the showers could produce some small hail or graupel, even with no thunder or lightning. And, we will also watch for reports of “cold air funnels”. These rarely touch down, and are not really dangerous, but they can happen under a cold core upper low, and can sure look threatening.

NEXT WEEK: The upper low finally moves east of Alabama Monday, but a few showers will remain possible, most likely over the eastern half of the state. Then, just a slight risk of a stray shower Tuesday. Wednesday and Thursday will be dry with a warming trend.

Be sure and see the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and more details.

RACE WEEKEND AT TALLADEGA: The radar is quiet for now, but showers will likely move over the Superspeedway this afternoon, making the day a challenge for qualifying and the Arca 250. The high today will be around 69.

A soaking rain is likely tomorrow morning, but the rain should end early afternoon. We figure the rain could end around the track in the 1-2 p.m. time frame, which should allow enough time for the running of the Aaron’s 312 after the rain delay. Tomorrow will be an amazingly cool day for May… with a high of only 59 degrees.

Sunday will begin with an early morning low around 40 degrees… and once again the high Sunday afternoon will be in the upper 50s. A few passing showers are likely, but the rain won’t be continuous, and the day won’t be a wash-out. So, a good chance they get the Aaron’s 499 in, but a delay or two is likely. Also keep in mind some of the showers around Talladega Sunday could produce some small hail due to the cold air aloft over Alabama.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I will be going a weather program this morning at Vincent Elementary School…. look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day…

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

THIS AFTERNOON: Radar shows patches of mostly light rain over parts of North and East Alabama this afternoon… the heaviest rain was over parts of DeKalb and Cherokee Counties around 3:00. Otherwise, the sky is cloudy and temperatures are in the 66-72 degree range, well below average for early May in Alabama.

Model agreement is pretty good on the scenario over the next several days… a deep, cold core upper low will form near Tulsa tomorrow, and it now looks like it will pass right over North Alabama late this weekend. Here is the day by day breakdown…

TOMORROW: Rain should be relatively widespread over Alabama. The rain should increase late tonight, and much of the day tomorrow looks wet. No severe weather, and probably not much thunder. Just good ole fashioned rain. We won’t get out of the 60s because of the clouds, and rain amounts of around one inch are likely.

SATURDAY: The rain will end from west to east during the midday hours Saturday as a dry slot works into the state from the west. A pretty good chance most North/Central Alabama communities see some sunshine Saturday afternoon, but temperatures will stay cool with a high only in the low to mid 60s.

SUNDAY: The 12Z GFS moves the cold core upper low right us… moving along I-20. This means the sky will be generally cloudy Sunday (a few peeks of sun are possible), and passing rain showers are likely. No, the rain won’t last all day, but any one spot now stands about a 70 percent chance of seeing at least one shower.

Due to the very cold air aloft, some hail or graupel is possible in the convective showers Sunday afternoon. And, we might even hear of a few cold air funnels. These can form even with stable low level air… they are caused by the rotation around the upper low and very cold air aloft. Cold air funnels don’t touch the ground, and aren’t really dangerous, but they sure do look threatening.

I seriously doubt if we get out of the 50s Sunday afternoon… and we start the day well down in the 40s. It sure won’t feel like May in Alabama.

MONDAY: We will have to hang on to a chance of showers Monday, especially over the eastern half of the state, as the cold core ULL moves into Georgia. The high will be in the mid 60s.

Then, just a small risk of a lingering shower Tuesday as the upper low moves to South Carolina, and Wednesday and Thursday should be dry with a warming trend.

RACE WEEKEND: Clearly tomorrow will be the most challenging day at Talladega when it comes to weather. Rain is likely most of the day, and will be a problem for qualifying and the Arca 250. It won’t rain all day, but a pretty good percentage of the time it will be wet. The high will be in the 60s.

Rain should end in Talladega in the 11am-1pm time frame Saturday, followed by sunshine during the afternoon hours as the dry slot moves into East Alabama. The Aaron’s 312 might be delayed a bit, but a very good chance the race will be run with a mostly sunny sky.

On Sunday, a few passing showers are likely. No way at this point we can tell you the start/stop times of the showers, but a rain delay is certainly possible during the Aaron’s 499. And, we should remind you some small hail is possible in the showers Sunday due to very cold air aloft. The sky will be generally cloudy, and the day will be very cool with an early morning low near 42, followed by a high only around 60 degrees.

Take a few minutes to watch the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and more details.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Twitter
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I had a great time today visiting the 6th graders at Centre Middle School… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

EARLY MORNING RADAR PEEK: A large rain mass continues over Mobile and Baldwin Counties, near the Gulf Coast, where amounts to almost 10 inches were reported last night and early this morning. A flash flood warning for Baldwin County is expiring as I write this… the heaviest rain is pushing into the Florida Panhandle. Up this way the radar is pretty quiet with only a few isolated showers over the northern half of the state at daybreak.

The overall forecast is on track; the upper low over the Gulf Coast will shear apart and move southeast today, while the cold upper trough over the nation’s mid-section will evolve into a deep, cold core upper low over Oklahoma by tomorrow. Model consistency is good, and forecast confidence fairly high now. Let’s take it one day at a time…

TODAY: The sky will be mostly cloudy with a few passing, light rain showers. Nothing organized or heavy, and the high will be in the low 70s.

TOMORROW: The upper low will be on the Oklahoma/Arkansas border, and rain should become widespread across most of Alabama. Wet weather is likely most of the day, and we will have a hard time getting out of the 60s due to the rain. Rain will continue tomorrow night. No severe weather, and probably not much thunder. Rain amounts of 1 inch are likely… not enough to create major flooding problems.

SATURDAY: The GFS and NAM are now in very good agreement; the rain should end from west to east Saturday morning, and by 2:00 or so all of the rain should be east of the state in Georgia as a dry slot rotates into our state. Bottom line is that most places will go from rain Saturday morning to sunshine Saturday afternoon… the day will be unusually cool for May with a high only in the mid 60s.

SUNDAY: We will begin the day with a very cool morning; the early morning low will be in the mid 40s. After morning sunshine, we expect scattered showers to form Sunday afternoon due to the instability created by very cold air aloft (the upper low will be near Memphis). The chance of any one spot seeing a shower Sunday afternoon is about one in three, and the showers will end once the sun goes down. We stay cool with a high in the mid to upper 60s.

MONDAY: The GFS puts the cold core upper low right on top of North Alabama. This means occasional showers are likely, and due to the cold air aloft, some hail will be possible in the showers. Maybe even a bit of graupel. And, if the ULL does indeed go right over us, we might not get out of the 50s… that would be a good 25 degrees below average for early May around here.

The upper low finally moves out Tuesday with only a small risk of a shower, and Wednesday and Thursday should be dry with a slow warming trend.

TALLADEGA SUPERSPEEDWAY: Just a few scattered showers around the track today, but widespread rain is likely tomorrow and tomorrow night, which will be very problematic for qualifying and the Arca 250. The high today will be in the low 70s… followed by upper 60s tomorrow.

Saturday morning will be wet, but we now believe the rain will end at the Superspeedway by midday Saturday, meaning good weather for the Aaron’s 312 Saturday afternoon with a clearing sky. The high Saturday will be only in the mid 60s.

Sunday morning should be mostly sunny at Talladega, and very cool with an early morning low in the 40s. But, scattered showers will form during the afternoon hours. The chance of a shower during the Aaron’s 499 is about one in three. So, a delay is possible, but they should get the race in. The high Sunday afternoon will be in the mid to upper 60s.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I will be doing a weather program this morning at Centre Middle School in Cherokee County… be looking for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 or so this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

ON THE RADAR: As expected, the majority of the showers across Alabama today have been south and west of Birmingham. The rain at 3pm is south of a line from Millport to Moundville to Montgomery. The sky is mostly cloudy, and temperatures are in the 70s at mid-afternoon.

The overall idea still looks good… the upper low over Louisiana will weaken and move southeast, while a deep, cold core upper low will cut-off over Oklahoma during the next 36 hours creating a “rex block” pattern over the continental U.S. Model agreement is decent, so here is your day by day breakdown…

TOMORROW: The sky will be mostly cloudy, and a few passing showers are possible at any hour of the day over the entire state. The rain won’t be continuous, and you might see a peek of sunshine if you are lucky. The high will be only in the low 70s due to the clouds and showers.

FRIDAY: No real change; the main, organized rain mass associated with the Oklahoma upper low will remain west of the state, but a good moisture axis will stay in place. So, the day will be mostly cloudy with occasional showers. We might see 70 degrees if we are lucky… many North Alabama communities won’t get out of the 60s due to clouds and rain.

SATURDAY: The 12Z GFS pushes a large rain mass into Alabama late Friday night, after midnight. This rain should cover most of the state into at least Saturday morning. The new run moves a dry slot into West Alabama during the afternoon, so we are now projecting the rain to end from west to east during the midday and afternoon hours. The western counties could very well see some sun Saturday afternoon under the dry slot. The high will be only in the low to mid 60s, and some communities over North Alabama might even have a tough time getting out of the 50s. It sure won’t feel like May.

SUNDAY: The cold core upper low will be near Memphis. A decent chance we begin the day with sunshine, and the early morning hours will be cool. The GFS is printing a low of 46 degrees for Birmingham at daybreak; some places could drop down into the low 40s. Then, Sunday afternoon, showers will begin to form over the northern half of the state in response to the very cold air aloft. We should also point out those showers Sunday afternoon could produce some hail due to the upper low’s cold core structure. And, once again, it is very doubtful we get out of the 60s.

MONDAY: The new GFS (12Z run) puts the cold core right on top of North Alabama… if this is the case then showers will remain possible, and the heavier showers could produce some hail, even with no thunder and lightning. And, if the ULL is on top of us, we probably won’t make it out of the 50s. Some record low maximum temperatures for May 6 could be in danger.

Showers will thin out greatly Tuesday, and by Wednesday most of Alabama will be dry.

LET’S GO RACING: A few passing showers are likely at the Talladega Superspeedway tomorrow and Friday, but no total wash-out. Expect a high both days between 66 and 69 degrees. Saturday still looks like the wettest day with rain likely most of the day. The new GFS run gives some hope the rain will end by mid-afternoon Saturday, with perhaps just enough time to get the Aaron’s 312 in after a delay. Saturday will be a cool day with a high only in the mid 60s.

Sunday should feature morning sunshine, but scattered afternoon showers. As mentioned above, some of the showers Sunday afternoon might even have a little small hail due to the cold air aloft over the state. The chance of a shower at the track Sunday afternoon is about one in three, and the high Sunday will be in the mid to upper 60s.

We should mention it will be pretty chilly early Sunday around the Superspeedway, with early morning lows in the 40-44 degree range.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

RADAR CHECK: At daybreak showers are over parts of South and West Alabama… in a broad zone from near York and Livingston down through Linden, Camden, and Evergreen. The showers are moving northwest due to the circulation around an upper low over Louisiana.

COMPLEX FORECAST: With the current upper low over Louisiana, and the development of a deep, cold core upper low over Oklahoma later in the week and an associated rex block, it will make for a challenging forecast over the next 5-6 days. You can watch the Weather Xtreme video and see all of the maps and graphics… and let’s break it down one day at a time…

TODAY/TONIGHT: Clearly, the most widespread rain will be in areas south and west of Birmingham due to the upper feature over Louisiana. But, a few scattered showers could form this afternoon over North Alabama as well. We should see a little sun at times today with a high generally in the upper 70s. Where the sun breaks out for a while, a high of 80 degrees is possible.

TOMORROW: The upper low over Louisiana will move southeast and begin to fizzle out, while the cold upper trough digs down across the middle of the nation. While we will have a moist airmass in place, there is no real dynamic support for rain, and the GFS and NAM models look relatively dry (on the 00Z runs), suggesting much of the day will be rain-free. But, with a good supply of moisture we will mention a chance of scattered showers, mostly during the afternoon and evening hours along with a high in the mid 70s.

FRIDAY: A deep upper low will be along I-40 near Oklahoma City, and a very moist airmass will be in place over Alabama. We will mention scattered to numerous showers over our state Friday, but it won’t rain all day, and the sun might peek out at times. The high will drop into the low 70s.

SATURDAY: The big ULL will be moving slowly down I-40, and should be around Little Rock at midday Saturday. This puts in a very favorable position for a rainy day; we will mention rain for much of the day Saturday with a high only in the mid 60s… wqy below average for early May in Alabama. Some communities over Northwest Alabama will have a hard time getting out of the 50s.

SUNDAY: The upper low will move toward Nashville/Knoxville, and the GFS continues to show a dry slot over Alabama. This could mean a mostly sunny start to the day, and a very cool morning lows. Most communities will be in the 40s at daybreak Sunday. By afternoon a few scattered showers should begin to form due to the very cold air aloft with the upper low just north of here. Nothing widespread, but showers that do form Sunday afternoon could produce some hail, especially north of Birmingham. The high should be close to 70 degrees.

We should note the Euro solution looks wetter for Sunday, but we will discount that for now and just mention “scattered, mostly afternoon showers”.

MONDAY: The upper low is around Bristol, TN, and we will hang on to the risk of showers over the northern quarter of the state, mostly north of U.S. 278. The rest of Alabama will be dry with a high around 70.

Tuesday and Wednesday look dry with a slow warming trend.

RACE WEEKEND AT TALLADEGA: Quite the tricky forecast with showers possible daily through Sunday. Sure looks like most of the day tomorrow will be dry with only isolated showers, but the risk of one or two passing showers Friday is a little higher.

The most problematic day will come Saturday, with several hours of rain likely at the Superspeedway. A delay is likely for the Aaron’s 312, and getting the race in could be a challenge. The good news is that, for now, it looks like most of the day Sunday will be dry with only a few isolated showers Sunday afternoon.

Temperatures won’t get out of the 60s at Talladega Saturday with the rain, but the high Sunday should be close to 70. At least heat won’t be a problem.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

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I will be speaking to a group of health care volunteers at Trinity Medical Center today… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day…

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

THIS AFTERNOON: The radar is quiet over the northern half of Alabama as expected this afternoon; temperatures are generally in the 78-82 degree range. We do note a few showers and storms over far South Alabama… including a few strong storms over Mobile, Baldwin, and Escambia counties.

REST OF THE WEEK: Model clarity is a little better, but it is still a rather tricky forecast as we approach the weekend as a big rex block develops over North America. Let’s break it down on a day by day basis….

TOMORROW: No doubt we might see a shower or two around here tomorrow afternoon, but the showers should be pretty widely spaced, and the most organized showers and storms should be over Southwest Alabama, close to an upper disturbance over Louisiana. The high around here will be in the 77-80 degree range with a few intervals of sunshine during the day.

THURSDAY: The deeper moisture will move northward, and showers and storms in our part of the state should become more numerous. Still, it won’t rain all day, and we might see a few peeks of sunshine. The high will drop into the mid 70s due to clouds and showers.

FRIDAY: The upper system over Louisiana will fizzle out, and the big feature to watch will be cold core closer upper low over Oklahoma. The 12Z GFS hints the most widespread rain from this will be west of our state, over Mississippi, West Tennessee, Louisiana, and Arkansas. We will mention a chance of showers here on Friday, but I get the idea a decent part of the day will be dry. The GFS is printing a high of 73 for Birmingham.

SATURDAY: This could be the day with the most widespread rain if the morning model runs are correct. Rain is likely a pretty decent part of the day, and because of the clouds and some cold air advection, I doubt if we can get out of the 60s. The good news is that there is no severe weather threat, and probably not much thunder. Just good ole fashioned rain.

SUNDAY: The 12Z GFS pushes a dry slot into Alabama, and if this solution is correct, we will enjoy some morning sunshine followed by a partly sunny afternoon. Due to the cold air aloft associated with the upper low (which should be just north of Alabama), a few afternoon showers could form, but they will be pretty widely separated. If we do see some sun, the high will be at or just over 70 degrees.

RACE WEEKEND AT TALLADEGA: Based on new model data, it sure looks like a pretty good part of the day Friday will be dry, although one or two passing showers is certainly possible… good news for the Arca 250. Then, on Saturday, rain is likely, which will be a big factor for the running of the Aaron’s 312. A delay sure looks likely, and there could be an issue with getting that race in since it should be the wettest day of the weekend.

Sunday looks much better, with only a few scattered showers around. The high Friday afternoon will be around 71… followed by a high of 68 Saturday, and 70 degrees on Sunday. Sunday morning will be cool with a temperature around 50 degrees at daybreak.

WORD OF CAUTION: A cold core upper low is a weatherman’s woe… so please understand this forecast could change. But, what you see above is the best solution for now.

A few showers could linger on Monday, mainly north of Birmingham… then drier air moves into the state Tuesday. See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and details.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Scroll down for the show notes on the new episode we recorded last night.

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I really had a great time today seeing the 3rd, 4th, and 5th graders at Hokes Bluff Elementary School…. be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

DRY AND WARMER TODAY: We have a few fog issues this morning, mainly over Southwest Alabama… once the fog burns off the day looks good for the northern half of the state; the sky will be partly to mostly sunny with a high in the low 80 this afternoon. Any showers should be confined to the southern counties of the state, and even there they will be pretty widely spaced.

REST OF THE WEEK: A complex pattern will evolve over the U.S. with a rex block setting up involving a deep, cold core upper low somewhere west of Alabama. In the short term, moist air will move northward, and we will need to mention a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms around here tomorrow and Thursday. The best chance of a shower or storms will come during the afternoon and evening hours, and the most widespread rain will come over the southern half of the state. Temperatures will trend downward slightly due to the clouds and showers, but some spots could still manage 80 degree warmth tomorrow where the sun is out for a while. Highs on Thursday should be generally in the 70s.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: The GFS and the ECMWF, the two primary global models, are not in good agreement. The GFS has the upper low Saturday near Fort Smith, Arkansas, while the Euro has it west of Minneapolis, Minnesota. The location of the ULL, of course, will determine our weekend weather. For now we will ride with the GFS idea.

Our forecast will reflect periods of rain Friday, Saturday, and Sunday with a cooling trend. The high Friday will be in the low 70s… but on Saturday the GFS is printing a high of only 65 degrees for Birmingham. Not sure we make it out of the 60s Sunday, but if we can see a few decent intervals of sun, low 70s are possible Sunday afternoon.

Understand there will be some good breaks in the rain, and we don’t expect any severe weather, and probably not much thunder. But, once again we will be dodging raindrops this weekend. The GFS does hint at a dry slot moving into West Alabama Sunday, pushing the best chance of showers over to the eastern side of the state. But, even over West Alabama scattered showers could form late Sunday afternoon due to the cold air aloft associated with the upper low.

I can almost promise there will be some forecast adjustments as get closer to the weekend, so stay tuned.

TALLADEGA: With some rain possible Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, rain delays are possible, if not likely, but I do think they will be able to get the qualifying and races in over the weekend. You will just have to be patient. We project a high around 72 Friday, 65 Saturday, and 69 Sunday. Looks like lows will be mostly in the 50s, but should be upper low come closer, we might see 40s early Sunday morning. We will be able to be much more specific about the rain times/amounts as we get closer to the weekend.

NEXT WEEK: Model madness rules… on Monday the GFS has the upper low near Chattanooga, while the Euro has it over Hudson Bay (Canada). Should the GFS be correct, showers could linger into early next week with temperatures remaining below average. Take a few minutes to watch the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and details.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Scroll down for the show notes on the new episode we produced last night.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I will be doing a weather program this morning at Hokes Bluff Elementary School…. be looking for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

WeatherBrains Episode 379 is now online (April 29, 2013). If you are crazy about weather, this is THE best netcast audio program for you! And it even comes in a video version!

Listener Mike Toliver of Harrisonburg, VA, recommended tonight’s guest WeatherBrain. Aubrey Urbanowicz is the 5 pm meteorologist at the ABC affiliate in the Shenandoah Valley of Virginia, WHSV-TV Channel 3 in Harrisonburg, VA. Aubrey is from Wallingford, CT, and she attended East Tennessee State University in Johnson City, TN. She received a Bachelors of Geosciences degree from Mississippi State with a concentration in Broadcast Meteorology. She worked for Chili’s for nearly 12 years where she had the opportunity to travel the country training employees and opening restaurants. It was after being caught in all four Florida hurricanes of 2004 and Hurricanes Katrina and Rita of 2005 working for Chili’s that Aubrey found her calling into weather. She pursued her degree while living in Johnson City, TN, and eventually interned at WJHL in the Tri-Cities.

Aubrey loves to travel, hike, run, and just about anything outside or in the mountains, as well visit friends and her youngest brother Andrew in Johnson City, TN.

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

Our email bag officer is AWOL again, but this time we hear from him using the magic of pre-recorded segment. And Kevin plans to sue for non-payment of the rights to “He’s Out.”

From The Weather Center:

WeatherBrains 101: Unraveling the mysteries of the near-time environment of tornadoes. A daunting task to say the least. So why not use some stick figures to do it? Well, a project at Texas Tech has done just that, but they call the instruments “stick-nets.” This segment of 101 has the low down on just what stick-nets are.

Listener Surveys: Okay, we continue to drive this topic into the ground, but we really do like to hear from you. Many thanks to everyone who has taken the time to fill out the Listener Survey. The survey takes just a minute or two to complete and provides us with an opportunity to learn where you are and hear your thoughts and comments on the show. Click here to take the survey.

Web Sites from Episode 379:

WHSV-TV Channel 3

Hurricane Francis 2004

Local Weather Data on WHSV

Picks of the Week:

Brian Peters – Video of Hailstorm

Kevin Selle – Environmental Visualization Lab Flooding Image
WxSat app

James Spann – Hurricane on Saturn

Aubrey Urbanowicz – picture of smoke funnel below

The WeatherBrains crew includes your host, James Spann, plus other notable geeks like Kevin Selle and Brian Peters. They bring together a wealth of weather knowledge and experience for another fascinating netcast about weather.

Picture of smoke funnel:

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

NICE AFTERNOON: The sky is generally sunny across Alabama this afternoon with temperatures in the 70s. Tomorrow’s forecast is the easiest of the week… lots of sun with a warm afternoon; we should rise into the 81-85 degree range giving the day a summer-like feel. Beyond that, lots of questions…

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: Moisture begins to return along with rising humidity levels. I think we will need to introduce the chance of “widely scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers or thunderstorms”… much like the words we use daily during the summer. The rain won’t be really widespread, and any showers should end once the sun goes down. The high both days will be near 80 degrees with a mix of sun and clouds.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: Quite a challenging forecast due to the forecast formation of a deep, cold core upper low west of Alabama. You know the deal… cold core upper low, weatherman’s woe. These are very tricky.

The new model runs have the upper low anywhere from Texarkana, AR to near Kansas City, MO. But, clearly the idea is that the deep ULL will set up west of Alabama, which will mean cool and unsettled weather for Alabama.

Periods of mostly light rain are likely Friday and Saturday, but the rain probably won’t be especially heavy, and there will be some decent breaks in the wet weather. Our high will drop to near 70 Friday, and there is a good chance we won’t get out of the 60s Saturday with clouds and occasional rain.

The new GFS run pushes the upper low right over North Alabama Sunday evening. A dry slot could mean sunshine Sunday morning, but the cold air aloft associated with the upper low will make for a very unstable atmosphere, and afternoon showers are likely. Due to the cold air aloft, some hail is very possible, if not likely, in the showers (even with no lightning/thunder). The weather will stay cool Sunday with a high in the upper 60s.

The good news is that idea of a late season frost/freeze this weekend is still off the table for now.

RACE WEEKEND AT TALLADEGA: Not much change from our thinking this morning. Periods of rain are possible Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. Not a total wash-out, and a decent chance they get qualifying and the races in. But, rain delays are a very real possibility. Heat won’t be a problem this year… temperatures will have a very hard time getting out of the 60s all three days. Coolest morning will come early Sunday with upper 40s possible…

NEXT WEEK: The GFS keeps us in the wraparound moisture Monday, so showers are still possible with a high between 67 and 70. The weather should slowly trend drier and warmer toward the middle of the week. See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and details.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show tonight at 8:30 p.m. CT… you can watch it on our cable weather channel “James Spann 24/7″… or on the web here.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I had a great time today visiting with the kids at Centreville Middle School… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow….

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

DENSE FOG IN SPOTS: The NWS has issued a dense fog advisory for parts of Central Alabama this morning… checking the SKYCAM network it seems like the fog is not especially widespread, but where it has developed visibilities are very limited. Low clouds and fog this morning should give way to a partly sunny sky today with a high in the mid 70s. No rain expected for our part of the state… showers continue this morning mainly south of I-85 and east of I-65 over Southeast Alabama.

MID-WEEK: We warm into the low 80s tomorrow and Wednesday with a partly sunny sky both days. The main moisture axis should remain east of Alabama, and these two days should be mostly dry for Alabama, although I sure can’t rule out a few widely scattered afternoon showers Wednesday as moisture levels begin to rise.

Pretty much the same situation Thursday. The high will be close to 80 degrees with a mix of sun and clouds, and a few spots could see an afternoon shower.

LATE IN THE WEEK: Models develop a deep cold core upper low over the Midwest by Friday. The GFS has the ULL over Missouri, with the ECMWF over South Dakota. One way or another this should push a slow moving cold front into Alabama Friday, meaning a change to much cooler weather and a chance of rain. The GFS is printing a high of only 65 degrees Friday for Birmingham, and some parts of Northwest Alabama will have a hard time getting out of the 50s. No severe weather along the cold front, and probably not much thunder. Just periods of rain in the cooler air Friday.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: The good news is that the idea of a late season frost/freeze threat is off the table for now with the upper system pretty far northwest of Alabama. We had some concern last week that we could drop well down into the 30s early Saturday morning, but with clouds and some rain we figure the low will be in the 40s. Still very chilly for May, but not a threat for crops.

Saturday for now looks cloudy and cool, with some rain at times. The GFS hints the most widespread rain Saturday will be over the eastern half of Alabama. The high will remain in the 60s, way below average for early May.

With the upper pattern blocked, I am not sure the weather will be much different Sunday. Clouds will stay in place, along with some risk of rain mainly for East Alabama. The high Sunday afternoon will be in the 67-70 degree range.

RACE WEEKEND: This is the big weekend at Talladega, and the positive news is that heat won’t be a problem. Highs Friday through Sunday should be in the 60s with a cloudy sky. Unfortunately there will be rain to deal with at times. The highest probability of rain comes Friday and Saturday… Sunday’s forecast is a bit uncertain due to model differences, but I think we need to mention at least some risk of showers Sunday. A decent chance they get the races in, but rain delays are a very real possibility.

A dry slot should bring rain-free weather back to Alabama early next week with highs back in the 70s. See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and more details.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show tonight at 8:30 p.m. CT… you can watch it live right here.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I will be doing a weather program this morning at Centreville Middle School in Bibb County… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

People have referred to me as a “social media expert”. Nope… I am not. And, I am not sure there is such a thing. But, I do enjoy interacting with people, and I have connected with many via social media platforms over the past 10 years.

Here is a look at what to expect if you follow me….

*Nobody has access to my accounts but me. I have no staff, and no “helpers”. Every post and tweet is from me. It takes much of my time, but I enjoy the interaction. But remember, there are a few times when I am “off the grid”.

*I do my best to answer all questions. I really do. But, when the weather is really active (especially during winter storm threats and severe weather situations), I simply can’t answer every one of them. This blog is where we post long, detailed, frequent updates, and I always send people here anyway. Social media is NOT a good long form platform for crucial weather information.

*Constructive criticism is welcome, and needed. But, if you are a troll, hater, or know-it-all that is looking for a fight, be prepared to be blocked. I block first and ask questions later… my social media accounts always feature good, in depth discussions and there is no room for a troll. Go troll somebody else.

*You will get occasional plugs for Big Brains Media shows (our new media business). I work long, hard hours at social media with no compensation… the best way you can support me is to listen to Big Brains shows that appeal to you. Most of the weather geeks know about WeatherBrains, but we do some other cool shows too, with many more exciting things in the pipeline.

Where to find me….

GOOGLE PLUS: Honestly, this is my favorite platform of all. Yeah, I know… most say they just hear crickets when they try it. My advice… give it a chance. I often post the most detailed information there because Google Plus is so effective. Join, and “circle up” some good sources of news and weather information. Put the Google Plus app on your phone and tablet. I believe Google is 100 percent behind this social media network, and it has a great future. Some really, really good weather experts hang out there, and we use their video platform (Google Hangouts) for WeatherBrains every Monday night.

I have found very few trolls and haters, and the discussion is excellent. Come join us. You just might find yourself using less and less Facebook.

I do not put automated severe weather warnings on Google Plus… but I do post frequent weather updates, including important posts during severe weather.

TWITTER: Love the nature of the short messages. It is like a breaking newswire. I have almost 100,000 followers, and they are from all over.

Let me caution you… if you follow me on Twitter, be ready for lots of tweets in your timeline. Most are about weather, but for some reason I have become the “information bureau”, meaning I get some very important tweets about traffic and breaking news. I retweet all of the information I get that is useful to large numbers of people. You follow me, and you will know what goes on around Alabama. And, in many cases, the country.

And, yes, I love sunrise/sunset pictures. If you hate them, you might not want to follow me.

Like Google Plus, I do not automate severe weather warnings on Twitter. We have an account called @ewarn where you can get all Alabama severe weather watches and warnings.

But, I will post frequent severe weather updates during active events on Twitter.

FACEBOOK: Let me say up front Facebook is not a good platform for getting severe weather information. Due to the FB “Edge Rank” algorithm, you won’t get all of my updates in your news feed, generally speaking. So, do not use this as a primary method of getting severe weather warnings.

I do understand Facebook has the largest number of users in Alabama, and I understand I have to be there with frequent, useful, and relevant updates. But, I must admit I am very frustrated. Facebook wants us to pay big bucks to reach most of our followers, and I get the idea the problem will only get worse in coming years. This why I REALLY want you to come over and join us on Google Plus.

Warnings are automatically posted to my Facebook account, and I post frequent updates there as well.

It is important to note I reached my 5,000 friend limit years ago. But, I can have an unlimited number of followers/subscribers (the account has over 100,000 followers now).

And, in addition to the regular account, I also have a “like page” with over 120,000 likes. This is open and you can post pictures, video, or share important weather reports to me and the world. I check it often, but most of the weather updates are on the regular account.

INSTAGRAM: You are welcome to share pictures with me this way… I am “@spannpix”. Here I post the “best of the best” pictures from the “Spann Twitter Army”… the shots are simply beautiful if you cruise over there.

I do have a Pinterest account… but I must admit I have not really done much with that platform. And, I have ended my FourSquare checkins in an effort to simplify my digital life. I do checkins using Google Plus, and I keep them private so people won’t be bothered with them in their Google Plus feed. I just like to keep a running diary of all the cool places I visit. You don’t need to be bothered with that.

Linkedin? No presence for now.

So, if you dare, come along and connect. The ride together will be fun.

RADAR CHECK: Light rain is falling from Anniston to Clanton to Dempolis currently, with thunderstorms continuing in some of our southeastern counties in the Wiregrass region of the state.  The rain will continue to dissipate and move southeast overnight. Monday looks to be mostly dry with sunny and warm condition across the state. The most intense storms today have been over Georgia and thankfully we made it through the day with no severe weather warnings, the one exception was one flash flood warning for Calhoun County that has been allowed to expire.

CLEARING LINE: This evening the back edge of the clouds have made it to the Alabama/Mississippi boarder. Most of the clouds should get out of here overnight and most every one will see sunshine tomorrow. With clearing skies and a saturated ground, conditions could become favorable for fog to develop.

FOG: While writing this post, the NWS  issued a hazardous weather outlook for the development of fog. I would not be surprised to see the NWS issue a fog advisory later tonight, here is exactly what they are thinking.

FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND VISIBILITY COULD DROP BELOW ONE MILE AFTER MIDNIGHT GENERALLY NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. AN EXPANSION TO THE FOG THREAT COULD BECOME NECESSARY LATER THIS EVENING. MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND EXERCISE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING IN FOGGY CONDITIONS. FOG WITH VISIBILITY LESS THAN ONE MILE IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 9 AM MONDAY.

MONDAY MORNING: Besides the fog that is expected in the morning, Monday doesn’t look like too bad of a day. Clouds should continue to clear out as the front settles along the coast. Sunshine should be abundant in the Alabama sky tomorrow afternoon and temperatures will make it into the mid 70s.

Showers and thunderstorms continue this afternoon across much of Alabama. No severe storms, but the main threat is a flooding. Rainfall rates of 1-3 inches per hour have been reported and flooding is possible in some locations. A flash flood warning remains in effect for most of Calhoun County until 6:30 PM. This warning does include Anniston, Oxford and Jacksonville State University.

A few storms are strong, but remain below severe limits. The most intense storms have shifted south of Interstate 20 and are impacting portions of Bibb, Shelby and Talladega Counties. Moderate to heavy rain continues to fall in Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, Gadsden and Anniston. Travel along Interstates 65, 20, 59 and 459 is slow going this afternoon. Good news though, the back edge of the rain has made it through Fayette and Gordo and is approaching Jasper and Cullman. This entire system will continue a southerly motion through the evening and overnight hours.

Heavy rain has been falling across much of Calhoun County for several hours now. This warning includes nearly the entire county and is affecting areas around Anniston, Oxford, Jacksonville and Piedmeont, as well as Interstate 20 and U.S. Highway 431. Flooding is being reported through out the county. If you come across a road that is flooded, remember to Turn Around, Don’t Drown.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR…
CALHOUN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA…

* UNTIL 630 PM CDT

* AT 335 PM CDT…THE PUBLIC REPORTED SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS
WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE…
ANNISTON…COBB TOWN…FORT MCCLELLAN…JACKSONVILLE…OXFORD…
PIEDMONT…SAKS…WEST END…COBB TOWN…ALEXANDRIA…BLUE
MOUNTAIN…BYNUM…HOBSON CITY…JACKSONVILLE STATE UNIVERSITY…
OXFORD LAKE AND WEAVER.

REPORTS OF FLOODING WITHIN THE CITY OF JACKSONVILLE HAVE BEEN
REPORTED BY THE PUBLIC DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ALREADY…AND
ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUING OVER
THE NEXT THREE HOURS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION. RAINFALL FROM PERSISTENT RAINBANDS
WILL PRODUCE FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND ALONG STREETS. MANY
ROADS MAY BECOME IMPASSIBLE DUE TO HIGH WATER AND DRIVING IS NOT
RECOMMENDED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WARNED AREA OVER THE NEXT THREE HOURS.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS…HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY…
COUNTRY ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS…STREAMS AND
OTHER LOW LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING.