ABC 33/40 Weather Blog

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The latest information on Alabama weather, tornadoes, hurricanes, winter storms, national weather headlines and the science of meteorology in general.
Updated: 7 min 27 sec ago

Warnings for the Montgomery Area; Storms Elsewhere

Fri, 08/08/2014 - 15:46

Thunderstorms are increasing in coverage and intensity across Alabama in a soupy, unstable summertime airmass.

Storms in the Montgomery area have become severe and there is still a severe thunderstorm warning in effect for part of DeKalb County.

The NWS Birmingham issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Elmore, Macon and Montgomery Counties till 4:30 PM CDT.

Storms are strongest over Northeast, South Central and West Central Alabama as you can see from this radar grab just before 3:40.

Additional strong storms are over Mississippi and will be entering Northwest Alabama soon.

Other storms are in the Birmingham area right now, but they are not especially heavy.

Categories: Weather

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Fri, 08/08/2014 - 15:39

This is the text of a severe warning from the National Weather Service for part of the AlabamaWX.com coverage area. Standby for more details to be added to this post by our meteorologists.

WUUS54 KBMX 082038
SVRBMX
ALC051-087-101-082130-
/O.NEW.KBMX.SV.W.0107.140808T2038Z-140808T2130Z/

BULLETIN – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
338 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
SOUTHEASTERN ELMORE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA…
WEST CENTRAL MACON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA…
NORTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA…

* UNTIL 430 PM CDT

* AT 338 PM CDT…THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR AUBURN UNIVERSITY IN
MONTGOMERY…OR 6 MILES EAST OF MONTGOMERY…AND MOVING EAST AT 15
MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
MOUNT MEIGS…EMERALD MOUNTAIN…WAUGH…TYSONVILLE…
VICTORYLAND…SHORTER…BRASSELL AND WARE.

THIS INCLUDES…
INTERSTATE 85 EXIT NUMBERS 4 THROUGH 22…

WINDS OF 60 TO 70 MPH WILL BREAK LARGE TREE LIMBS AND CAUSE SOME
DAMAGE…ESPECIALLY TO SMALLER STRUCTURES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

FOR YOUR PROTECTION…MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF
YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS.

&&

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER…
CALL 1-800-856-0758 OR TWEET YOUR REPORT USING HASHTAG ALWX

LAT…LON 3259 8597 3234 8587 3229 8623 3243 8629
TIME…MOT…LOC 2038Z 252DEG 12KT 3238 8617

$$

77/GLEASON

Categories: Weather

Higher Rain Chances Ahead

Fri, 08/08/2014 - 06:10

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

BIG STORMS FOR SOME YESTERDAY: A number of Alabama communities saw big summer storms late yesterday, on what will probably be the hottest day of the summer for our state. A flash flood warning was needed for parts of Marshall County, and there was extensive tree and power line damage north of Gadsden atop Lookout Mountain, and on Sand Mountain near Boaz and Albertville due to wet microbursts.

THE DAYS AHEAD: A wavy, zonal flow will bring a series of waves into Alabama through early next week, meaning scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms on a daily basis. The sky will be occasionally cloudy, and while the best chance of showers and storms will come during the afternoon and evening hours, we can’t totally rule out a late night or morning shower. Highs will drop into the 88-92 degree range through Sunday, considerably lower than the 99 degree high we saw in Birmingham yesterday.

For those planning outdoor events this weekend, due to the scattered nature of summer storms there is no way to tell you the exact start/stop times for rain at any given location, just be prepared for a shower or storm at any time. And, like yesterday, the storms will be pretty strong with potential for localized flooding and lots of lightning. But, the sun will be out at times, and the rain won’t be continuous.

We all know rain distribution in summer is not even, but on an average basis many Alabama communities will see two inches of rain between now and Wednesday.

LATE NEXT WEEK: The GFS is hinting that another summer “cold front” will move down into South Alabama, with potential for lower humidity and cooler nights for North Alabama by Thursday and Friday. We will have to wait and see on that idea. See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and more details.

GULF COAST WEATHER: About 6 to 8 hours of sunshine each day through early next week along the Gulf Coast from Panama City west to Gulf Shores with the usual risk of scattered thunderstorms. Highs will remain in the upper 80s, and the sea water temperature early this morning at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab is 86 degrees.

TROPICS: The Atlantic basin remains very quiet, but the Pacific is rocking and rolling. Iselle continues to weaken, and moved into the Big Island of Hawaii this morning as a tropical storm. Flooding remains the primary threat with this system…

And, to the east, Hurricane Julio will pass north of the Hawaiian Islands this weekend as it weakens. Again, see all the maps on the Weather Xtreme video.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon…. enjoy the day!

Categories: Weather

Heavy Thunderstorms Over Northeast Alabama

Thu, 08/07/2014 - 19:44

Heavy thunderstorms are over Northeast Alabama tonight. They are dumping torrential rains, producing intense lightning and gusty winds.

They are heaviest over Etowah County, with more heavy rain extending into Marshall and Calhoun Counties. Intense rains are falling just northeast of Gadsden. There may even be some hail there.

A flash flood warning was just issued for parts of Marshall County around Albertville and Boaz.

Everything is moving northeast.

Other showers and storms are over the southern portion of WEst central Alabama down around Demoplis and Thomaston and Pine Hill.

Categories: Weather

A Few Showers This Afternoon, A Few Showers Tonight

Thu, 08/07/2014 - 13:41

Showers formed late this morning over West Central Alabama, extending back into Mississippi along the leading edge of a southwesterly flow aloft ahead of an upper level disturbance near St. Louis.

The showers extend from southern Tuscaloosa County back through Greene and Hale and into Sumter Counties. The activity extends eastward across South Central Alabama from Dallas County eastward through northern Montgomery and Elmore Counties to Clay, Randolph and Lee Counties. The activity is widely scattered at this time.

The graphic shows heat index values at this hour. They are not quite to the advisory criteria of 105F, but they are close in spots. Note that the 104F at Jasper is a suspect value.

Temperatures are in the middle 90s, ranging from 96F at Anniston to 95F at Calera and Birmingham. The temperature at Tuscaloosa peaked at 95F before nearby showers cooled the air by 10 degrees.

The main lobe of vorticity is pushing through western Mississippi and this hour. It will bring a round of scattered showers and storms to western and northwestern Alabama this evening. Here is the 4km NAM Simulated Radar Reflectivity for 9 p.m. tonight.

Categories: Weather

Hurricane Hunters in Hawaii

Thu, 08/07/2014 - 11:14

The Hurricane Hunters are in Hawaii, but they are not on vacation.

The 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron (Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters) have deployed two lanes to Joint Base Pearl Harbor to monitor Hurricane Iselle as it makes landfall tonight and to monitor Hurricane Julio as it passes north of the islands this weekend.

I always love the Google Earth depictions of the Hurricane Hunter missions, especially since they look like a Lite Brite, a toy from some of our childhoods.

But these two storms mean business and the Hawaiian Islands are battening down.

If Iselle makes landfall as a hurricane on the Big Island tonight, it will be the first landfall of a hurricane since Iniki in 1992. Only three storms have made landfall as full hurricanes in Hawaii since 1950.

The big island has not had a direct landfall from a full hurricane since modern records began in 1950.

Here is the forecast track for Iselle, showing landfall between 2-3 a.m. CDT, which is 9-10 p.m. Hawaiian time.

Hurricane warnings are in effect for the big island of Hawaii, with tropical storm warnings for the rest of the islands. Flash flood watches are in effect for all of the islands.

The storm is unusual in that it has battled an environment full of dry air and decent shear to remain a hurricane. Here is an enhanced satellite image of Iselle.

In a bit, we will take a look at the impact being expected in the islands as Iselle approaches and what affects Julio will have over the weekend.

Categories: Weather

Becoming More Unsettled

Thu, 08/07/2014 - 07:14

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

While the weather pattern has been somewhat nondescript for the last several days, that is changing as moisture values gradually increase and a weak frontal boundary approaches the Tennessee River Valley from the north. To add to the forecast challenge, a northwesterly flow pattern could produce thunderstorm clusters over the Central Plains with the potential for those clusters to invade the Southeast US. There is not a great deal of skill in timing these events, so we’ll have to maintain a close watch on radar and storm development and adjust our forecasts as needed.

For today, hot once again with the potential for isolated showers and thunderstorms. With moisture creeping up, heat indices will likely reach the 100 to 105 range, so anyone with outdoor plans should be sure to stay hydrated and consider cutting back on the physical exertion.

While the Atlantic tropical basin is quiet again, the same can’t be said for the Pacific. Hawaii is under a hurricane warning with not just one storm to contend with. See the Xtreme for the detailed graphics.

Beach goers will enjoy a mostly sunny day on the Alabama and Northwest Florida beaches with highs in the upper 80s. Isolated showers possible today and the shower potential goes up for the weekend – but not expecting a complete washout. Sea water temperature running in the 82 to 84 range along the coast.

The upper air flow becomes increasingly northwesterly for the Southeast US with time, so our weather becomes more unsettled. I expect to see shower chances and coverage go up Friday and Saturday and perhaps stay up some into Sunday. Best chance for getting some rain appears to be Saturday. While I hate to see that for the weekend, we really could use some of Mother Nature’s rain to stem the dryness of the last week.

The northwesterly flow also opens us to the potential for mesoscale convective systems – MCSs – with weak disturbances that develop across the Central Plains and travel long distances. Timing these events is difficult, so recognizing the pattern and maintaining a watchful eye for this development will be necessary.

The overall upper air pattern does not see much change as we head into a good portion of next week. This is good news for us since it should keep any extreme heat away with highs mainly in the lower 90s with a chance of daily showers driven primarily by afternoon heating.

Looking at voodoo country, and we see clearly why James has given it that nickname! The pattern flipped yesterday and it has flipped again today back to what we’ve been seeing with a fairly strong trough positioned over the eastern US. As I mentioned yesterday, confidence was higher with consistency in the longer range models, but confidence has fallen off a good deal with these large differences from run to run.

And you can follow news and weather updates from ABC 33/40 on Twitter here. Stay in the know by following the whole gang – here’s the list…

James Spann Charles Daniel Bill Murray Brian Peters E-Warn (AL wx watches/warnings)

The next Weather Xtreme Video should be posted first thing on Friday morning. Enjoy your day and Godspeed.

-Brian-

Categories: Weather

Mainly Dry and Warm Today

Wed, 08/06/2014 - 06:56

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

Not much change to the overall forecast thinking for the next several days with a slight northwesterly flow pattern for us. But things do show some signs of changing once again and the GFS has become less consistent for Week Two. So forecast confidence has gone down a bit.

Look for mostly dry weather across North and Central Alabama today with the trough axis east of the area and the nose of the western ridge pushing into the Lower Mississippi River Valley. This should bring mostly warm and sunny weather to Central Alabama today with highs in the 92 to 96 range. Thursday moisture begins to pick up a tad so showers once again enter the forecast.

With moisture up, scattered showers become a possibility for our weekend with rain chances in the 50/50 range. While the pattern sees little overall change, the GFS shows yet another trough developing into early next week, in the Monday/Tuesday time frame. Interesting to note that while this is becoming a familiar pattern for us for the summer of 2014 with an uncharacteristic trough in the East and a substantial ridge over the West, there is a weaker look to this pattern.

Weather looks good at the beaches of Northwest Florida and Alabama. While isolated showers remain possible each day, there should also be a good supply of sunshine each day with highs along the coast in the 87 to 89 range. Water temperatures are running mainly in the lower 80s. Rain chances are likely to ramp up a bit later in the week and into the weekend.

Bertha continued as a tropical storm as she moved northeastward today with no threat to land, just to shipping. Bertha was merging with a frontal zone and should become extratropical in the next 36 hours.

Voodoo country is beginning to live up to its name as we see a fairly dramatic change in the overall look to the pattern for the eastern US. Gone is the deep trough pattern over the East replaced by the subtropical ridge nosing into the East Coast from the Atlantic. After remaining consistent for a number of days, this run signals a flip and shows why the long range pattern is tough to nail down.

And you can follow news and weather updates from ABC 33/40 on Twitter here. Stay in the know by following the whole gang – here’s the list…

James Spann Charles Daniel Bill Murray Brian Peters E-Warn (AL wx watches/warnings)

The next Weather Xtreme Video should be coming your way on Thursday morning. Enjoy your day and Godspeed.

-Brian-

Categories: Weather

Mainly Dry Weather Today and Wednesday

Tue, 08/05/2014 - 06:57

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

Not much change to the overall forecast thinking with a somewhat nondescript weather pattern for us to deal with for much of the week. But things do show some signs of changing once again.

Look for mostly dry weather across North and Central Alabama today and Wednesday with the trough axis east of the area and the nose of the western ridge pushing into the Lower Mississippi River Valley. This should bring mostly warm and sunny weather to Central Alabama today and Wednesday with highs in the 90 to 94 range. Thursday moisture begins to pick up a tad so isolated showers again enter the picture.

With moisture up, scattered showers become a possibility for our weekend with rain chances in the 50/50 range. While the pattern sees little overall change, the GFS and the ECMWF do have general agreement on yet another deep trough developing into early next week, in the Monday to Tuesday time frame based on the latest models. This is becoming a familiar pattern for us for the summer of 2014 with an unusually deep trough in the East and a substantial ridge over the West.

Weather looks good at the beaches of Northwest Florida and Alabama. While isolated showers remain possible each day, there should also be a good supply of sunshine each day with highs along the coast in the 87 to 89 range. Water temperatures are running mainly in the lower 80s. Rain chances are likely to ramp up a bit later in the week and into the weekend.

Bertha increased to a hurricane yesterday afternoon, but has since weakened slightly so that she is now back to a tropical storm. Track forecast continues to be for a gentle curve into the North Atlantic as the storm moves northeastward today and Wednesday with no threat to land, just to shipping.

Voodoo country keeps this anomalous pattern of a fairly deep trough in the East well into week two, so the trend for us to continue with temperatures at or below seasonal values seems to be a good one.

And you can follow news and weather updates from ABC 33/40 on Twitter here. Stay in the know by following the whole gang – here’s the list…

James Spann Charles Daniel Bill Murray Brian Peters E-Warn (AL wx watches/warnings)

The next Weather Xtreme Video should be coming your way on Wednesday morning. Enjoy your day and Godspeed.

-Brian-

Categories: Weather

Upper Trough Weakens

Mon, 08/04/2014 - 07:02

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

A couple of small, subtle changes are occurring in the weather pattern which should mean less showers for the forecast for a couple of days. First, some slightly drier air to the north will slowly slide into North and Central Alabama. Second, the pesky upper trough which has been sliding back and forth across the area will weaken as we come more under a northwesterly flow aloft. Both of these combine to suppress most shower development across North and Central Alabama and keep the focus for isolated showers across South Alabama where the deeper moisture will continue to reside.

Temperatures will push upward slightly as a result with highs mainly in the 90 to 94 range for much of the week ahead.

While school is getting ready to start for some this week, beach goers enjoying the Alabama coast will see scattered showers a possibility each day with highs in the upper 80s. Water temperatures still running in the lower to middle 80s in the Gulf along the coast.

The trough that has helped to keep our weather somewhat unsettled weakens in the week ahead and slides further eastward resulting in more of a northwesterly flow for us. This should help to keep the moisture down somewhat until later in the week when values creep back upward. Also that northwesterly flow brings the potential for large thunderstorm clusters to develop in the Central Plains and move southeastward into the Southeast US. No real skill in identifying one of these more than a several hours in advance, but being aware of the pattern helps to keep us ready if a forecast adjustment becomes needed.

Tropics are quiet outside of Bertha which is likely to become a hurricane on Tuesday as it moves northward away from the Bahamas. The storm continues to be well behaved as it traverses the western Atlantic between the eastern US trough and the subtropical high over the Central Atlantic. This keeps the storm a threat primarily to shipping interests for the western and northern Atlantic and away from land.

Week two or voodoo country still showing no sign of extreme heat with the possibility of another strong trough deepening across the eastern half of the US around the middle of August. With the pattern we’ve seen much of the summer, I do not plan to bet against this outcome!

And you can follow news and weather updates from ABC 33/40 on Twitter here. Stay in the know by following the whole gang – here’s the list…

James Spann Charles Daniel Bill Murray Brian Peters E-Warn (AL wx watches/warnings)

The next Weather Xtreme Video will come Tuesday morning as we stay on a one-a-day schedule while James is on vacation. Godspeed.

-Brian-

Categories: Weather

Afternoon Update

Sun, 08/03/2014 - 14:54

SIDEWALK: We are less than three weeks from Birmingham’s world class film festival. One of my favorite weekends of the year, make sure to make plans to attend several films. Click on the link above for more information and to purchase tickets.

Click image to enlarge.

AFTERNOON UPDATE: Several features of interest this afternoon on the GR Earth map.

…The cumulus field is decent across Central Alabama. It is thinner to the north, where moisture levels are lower and to the south, where morning clouds kept down the heating.

…A few showers had formed in some of the same areas as yesterday. The heaviest was between Vernon and Belk in Lamar county, with others straddling the line between Marion and Lamar Counties. Others were trying to form over southern Winston and northern Walker Counties. Another was over the City of Tuscaloosa. Everything was drifting slowly southeast. Storms will rain themselves out pretty quickly since there is little wind shear.

…Temperatures across Central Alabama were in the upper 80s generally. Birmingham did touch 90F briefly.

…Tropical Storm Bertha is 689 miles south of Birmingham at this hour. It has turned northwestward and will begin to recurve to the north and northeast tonight and Monday. It is no threat to land. Top winds are still 45 mph but some modest strengthening is expected and it will stop just short of becoming a hurricane.

Categories: Weather

A Quick Check on the Tropics

Sun, 08/03/2014 - 12:15

Tropical Storm Bertha is pulling through the southeastern Bahamas late this morning.

It is beginning to make the expected turn to the north that will eventually presage its recurvature away from the United States. The storm is expected to miss Bermuda as well.

It has top winds of 45 mph but is expected to strengthen some later today as it moves over warm water and encounters upper level winds that are a little more favorable for development. It should not reach hurricane intensity (74 mph or higher) though.

It will pass about 200 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras Tuesday morning as it accelerates northeastward. It will pass a couple of hundred miles southeast of Newfoundland Thursday morning then start the trek across the North Atlantic.

ELSEWHERE
A trough of low pressure over the Bahamas (not associated with Bertha) is disorganized and does not appear to be a candidate for development.

Categories: Weather

Dancing With the Stats

Sun, 08/03/2014 - 11:11

The upper level trough over the eastern United States continues to keep temperatures on the cool side in places to our north.

The 57F at Jackson KY yesterday was a record for the August 2nd. Roanoke and Danville VA both had record cool maximums as well with 72F.

Record cool continues across the Arklatex as well, as clouds and showers have kept readings cool the past few days. El Dorado AR and Monroe LA both had record cool maximums again yesterday with 81F and 80F respectively.

The 72F at Monroe on Friday and the 69 at El Dorado were all time record cool highs for August.

Just a few more entries in the old weather record books.

Categories: Weather

Shower Chances Dip Somewhat

Sun, 08/03/2014 - 06:48

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

The upper trough axis remains in our area and helped to produce numerous showers and thunderstorms across the northwest quadrant of Alabama yesterday afternoon. Enough so that I ended up with nearly 1.5 inches of rain in slow moving storms during the afternoon. Those storms produced an interesting temperature trace for the afternoon.

Looking a bit drier for Central Alabama today with that pesky upper trough axis moving a bit east and providing a slight northwesterly flow. This positioning puts us in the area for less shower development with some slightly drier air aloft but we’re still looking at isolated showers. Showers will be a little more numerous across South Alabama where the deeper moisture resides. Highs today will be mainly in the upper 80s with periods of clouds and sunshine here and there.

For beach goers, look for 4 to 6 hours of sunshine along the Alabama and Northwest Florida coast where showers will be occurring off and on today and Monday. Air temperatures will continue to be in the 86 to 88 degree range as water temperature values remain in the lower and middle 80s. Looks like a return to more widely scattered showers into the middle of next week.

In the tropics, Bertha remained somewhat disorganized with a closed surface center somewhat hard to locate as it was approaching the Southeast Bahamas. The storm is likely to remain disorganized for the next 24 hours as it moves away from Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. However, conditions will improve with water temperatures going up which is likely to allow the system to gain strength and perhaps become a hurricane as it recurves around the subtropical high in the Atlantic and the trough over the eastern US. The recurvature should keep it in the Atlantic away from the US coastline.

The upper trough maintains a presence in our area into the first of next week, so showers remain a possibility but I think we get back to something more closely matching a summertime pattern with daily showers driven mainly by afternoon heat especially across the northern half of Alabama with some slightly drier air in place. With the weak trough in place, can’t completely rule out an isolated shower at almost any time. But as the trough does weaken some and the upper flow becomes more northwesterly, we should experience some upper level drying that will suppress showers somewhat.

As I mentioned yesterday, that northwesterly flow also brings the potential for large thunderstorm clusters to form over the Central Plains and move into the Southeast US. Certainly not much skill at forecasting a specific threat for a specific spot, but we need to be aware of this potential in the forecast which might require last minute adjustments. The northwesterly flow on Tuesday and Wednesday may actually bring a couple of days for almost no showers though it is hard to take all mention of showers out of the forecast.

Out in Voodoo country – week two of the forecast – the pattern remains fixed on the trend of keeping a fairly substantial trough over the eastern US while the westerlies remain well north in Canada. But by the end of the period the ridge becomes stronger across the southern tier of the US keeping isolated showers a daily occurrence.

And you can follow news and weather updates from ABC 33/40 on Twitter here. Stay in the know by following the whole gang – here’s the list…

James Spann Charles Daniel Bill Murray Brian Peters E-Warn (AL wx watches/warnings)

I will be filling in on ABC 3340 at 5 and 10 pm for Meaghan Thomas so you can catch the latest weather forecast then. Enjoy the day and Godspeed.

-Brian-

Categories: Weather

Some Showers and Storms

Sat, 08/02/2014 - 13:24

As expected today, the radar has gotten active once the atmosphere over the state warmed up.  This very warm and moist air mass in place can support scattered to numerous showers and storms in certain areas. As of now, the majority of the activity has been to the west of Interstate 65. There are some locations seeing some heavier rain, and there could even be a few rumbles of thunder at times.

Today’s activity is not moving rapidly, and the general motion is off towards the southeast. If you are lucky enough to see the rain today, it should not last too long, no more than an hour.

Throughout the afternoon, we will continue to see this activity persist, however, not everyone will see the rain today. Many locations continue to see a mix of sun and clouds, and it continues to be rather muggy. Highs this afternoon are ranging from the mid to upper 80s.

Click image to enlarge.

Categories: Weather

Update on Bertha

Sat, 08/02/2014 - 11:17

Tropical Storm Bertha continues to move rapidly across the northeastern Caribbean today. Bertha remains rather unorganized, but still has sustained winds of 50 mph. Over the next 24-48 hours, Bertha could intensify some, and she will begin to take a more northerly turn. Heavy rain and gusty winds will be impacting Puerto Rico, the Virgina Islands, and the Dominican Republic today through tonight as Bertha passes nearby.

Here are the latest specifics on Berta.

…CENTER OF BERTHA PASSING JUST SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO…
…TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC…

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…17.2N 66.7W
ABOUT 90 MI…150 KM SSW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 230 MI…370 KM ESE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 22 MPH…35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1008 MB…29.77 INCHES

Now the important question, where is Bertha heading? As she begins to take a more northerly turn, she will affect the Turks and Caicos Islands, as well as the southeastern Bahamas. Bertha will then begin to take the northeasterly turn and accelerate. She should stay west of Bermuda, and well to the east of the Atlantic Coast of the U.S. mainland. Bertha should remain a tropical storm, but there is a chance for her to reach hurricane strength briefly over the open waters of the Atlantic.

Categories: Weather

Somewhat Unsettled Today and Sunday

Sat, 08/02/2014 - 06:38

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

Looking like a bit of an unsettled weekend for Central Alabama with the presence of that pesky upper trough axis that is currently just to our west. This positioning puts us in the better area for lift for today, but as the radar shows, we’re looking at scattered showers that remain fairly small with rainfall that occurs expected to be light for any one spot. Clouds and the presence of showers will help to keep temperatures below seasonal values with highs mainly in the middle 80s with perhaps some breaks in the clouds here and there allowing a little sunshine. One of those days where the forecast and weather includes everything from sunshine to rain!

For beach goers, look for 4 to 6 hours of sunshine along the Alabama and Northwest Florida coast where showers will be occurring off and on today and Sunday. Air temperatures will continue to be in the middle and upper 80s as water temperature values remain in the lower and middle 80s. Looks like a return to more scattered showers into next week.

In the tropics, Bertha remained somewhat disorganized as it was approaching Puerto Rico. The storm is likely to remain disorganized for the next 36 hours as it ingests some dry air as well as interacting with the land areas of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. However, as it begins to move away from that area, conditions will improve with water temperatures going up which is likely to allow the system to gain strength and perhaps become a hurricane as it recurves around the subtropical high in the Atlantic and the pesky trough over the eastern US. The recurvature should keep it in the Atlantic away from the US coastline.

The upper trough maintains a presence in our area into the first of next week, so showers remain a possibility but I think we get back to something more closely matching a summertime pattern with daily showers driven mainly by afternoon heat. With the weak trough in place, can’t completely rule out an isolated shower at almost any time. But as the trough does weaken some and the upper flow becomes more northwesterly, we should experience some upper level drying that will suppress showers. But we still maintain small chances for those daily showers with no appreciable relief from the overall dryness.

The northwesterly flow also brings the potential for large thunderstorm clusters to form well off over the Central Plains and move into the Southeast US. Certainly no skill at forecasting a specific threat for a specific spot, mainly need to be aware of this potential in the forecast which might require last minute adjustments.

Voodoo country – week two of the forecast – remains fixed on the trend of keeping a fairly substantial trough over the eastern US while the westerlies remain well into Canada. But by the end of the period the ridge becomes stronger across the southern tier of the US keeping isolated showers a daily occurrence.

And you can follow news and weather updates from ABC 33/40 on Twitter here. Stay in the know by following the whole gang – here’s the list…

James Spann Charles Daniel Bill Murray Brian Peters E-Warn (AL wx watches/warnings)

I expect to post the next Weather Xtreme Video on Sunday morning by 8 am or so. Enjoy the day as we stay a tad below early August temperatures. Godspeed.

-Brian-

Categories: Weather

Staying Somewhat Unsettled

Fri, 08/01/2014 - 06:28

***Please note that there will not be a Weather Xtreme Video this morning.*** I plan to have one posted by 8 am on Saturday morning. Here’s a discussion of what is expected in our weather for the next week or so.

We saw a few radar echoes yesterday afternoon passing across Central Alabama, but thanks to a dry layer around 800 to 700 millibars, only a few sprinkles at best reached the ground. But the atmosphere continues to become wetter, so we will see more showers and storms today and through the weekend. The upper level flow remains amplified over the east with a trough persisting over the eastern U.S. This trough retrograded some yesterday, but will back east today and over the weekend. This feature will be enhancing the uplift and tapping into higher moisture levels which will allow for scattered showers and storms to develop at almost anytime throughout the day keeping the weekend somewhat unsettled.

As the trough move back east over the weekend, it will increase our rain chances for Saturday and Sunday. Saturday looks to be the wetter day for now, but it should not be an all day rain. Sunday will see good rain chances as well, and both days will see highs in the mid-80s with extensive cloud cover preventing much warming during the day.

The unsettled weather pattern will continue into the first part of the week, but looking at the medium range models, the pattern flattens out some in the east and that means our flow will become a bit more zonal. We are likely to see rain chances decrease and become more diurnally driven with afternoon heating. Temperatures will also climb into the 89 to 92 range. After starting the month with below seasonal temperatures, it looks as though that temps will climb to seasonal norms. Rain chances will be more typical for early August with only a few isolated showers and storms possible.

A mix of sun and clouds for beach goers. Fairly seasonal weather is expected as scattered afternoon storms will be possible. The best chance of rain looks to be Sunday into Monday, but after that, rain chances begin to lower again. Highs are in the upper 80s, and the water temperatures are averaging lower 80s from Panama City west to Dauphin Island.

TROPICAL SITUATION: Bertha came into being yesterday afternoon and is expected to move through the Lesser Antilles today and across Puerto Rico late Saturday. The cyclone is being steered by the flow around the Atlantic subtropical ridge which is forecast to persist. Once Bertha reaches the Bahamas, she will be steered by the southerly flow between the subtropical high and the upper level trough over the eastern United States. This pattern should force Bertha to turn northward with recurvature northeastward over the Atlantic keeping it away from the Southeast US Coast.

Long range model projections remain trending toward ridging across the southern tier of the US. However, the overall troughiness we’ve seen during July across the eastern US persists, so there is currently no signs of any significant heat for the eastern US.

And you can follow news and weather updates from ABC 33/40 on Twitter here. Stay in the know by following the whole gang – here’s the list…

James Spann Charles Daniel Bill Murray Brian Peters E-Warn (AL wx watches/warnings)

Sorry for lack of a Weather Xtreme Video this morning, but dealing with some minor cold issues with coughs and you know what that can do to sleep in your household. Enjoy the continued cooler than typical weather while it lasts. Godspeed.

-Brian-

Categories: Weather

Bertha Is Born

Thu, 07/31/2014 - 22:09

The National Hurricane Center has initiated advisories on Tropical Storm Bertha since showers and storms are building rapidly around the center and the plane encountered tropical storm force winds.

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…12.3N 55.5W
ABOUT 275 MI…445 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 385 MI…620 KM ESE OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 MPH…31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1008 MB…29.77 INCHES

Tropical storm warnings and watches have been issued for parts of the Lesser Antilles.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* BARBADOS
* ST. LUCIA
* DOMINICA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES

Here is the forecast track and cone of uncertainty:

Categories: Weather

Mostly Cloudy Today

Thu, 07/31/2014 - 06:56

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

Not nearly as chilly this morning as temperatures were not allowed to drop as much due to increased clouds from the convection off to our west. No new records this morning as the morning lows were about 10 degrees warmer than Wednesday morning.

The upper level flow remains in a trough pattern across the eastern US. This trough is forecast to move westward a little or retrograde, so the trough axis should be just to our west into the weekend. This along with the moisture increase will allow for showers over the weekend with the best chances coming Saturday and Sunday, but there will still be some chance of showers into next week.

NHC continues to watch an area of disturbed weather approaching the Lesser Antilles. Conditions are still conducive for possible development, however, the chances for the formation of a tropical storm have dropped off a tad. So this continues to be watched.

While the trough retrogrades today and Friday, it will migrate back east over the weekend bringing up our rain chances for Saturday and Sunday. Saturday looks like a wetter day for now, but probably not an all day rain event.

The trough over the eastern US weakens as upper ridging strengthens across the southern tier of the US into the first of next week. With moisture in place, we should return to something more summer-ish with daily chances of showers driven primarily by the heat of the afternoon. Afternoon highs will climb back into the 89 to 92 range.

Beach goers will enjoy a good supply of sunshine today but clouds increase for Friday and into the weekend along with shower chances. Highs along the coast will be in the 85 to 88 range with morning lows in the lower and middle 70s. Temperatures will be a little warmer away from the coast.

The overall active pattern with a trough in the East continues into voodoo country or week two. Trough is not nearly as strong as the westerlies tend to move back toward the north. This should signal a warmer period of weather if this verifies, but still nothing in the way of extreme heat appears likely.

And you can follow news and weather updates from ABC 33/40 on Twitter here. Stay in the know by following the whole gang – here’s the list…

James Spann Charles Daniel Bill Murray Brian Peters E-Warn (AL wx watches/warnings)

We will be on a one-a-day Weather Xtreme Video through next week as I sub for the vacationing James Spann. Next Weather Xtreme Video by 7 am or so on Friday morning. Godspeed.

-Brian-

Categories: Weather