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Central Alabama 7 Day Forecast

Some Light Rain Possible Tonight

| 6:27 am November 25, 2014

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

AT DAYBREAK: Colder air is in place over Northwest Alabama this morning, where we are seeing low 30s; there are some clouds showing up from roughly I-20 south, and we note rain on radar just below Dothan from near Panama City, Florida to Tifton, Georgia. The daytime hours today should be rain-free, with a mix of sun and clouds along with a high in the upper 50s.

SOME RAIN TONIGHT: We still expect some light rain tonight as a strong upper trough rotates through; rain amounts should be generally under 1/4 inch. The main window for light rain will come from 6:00 this evening through 4:00 a.m. tomorrow. All of the rain will be in Georgia and points east by daybreak.

Tomorrow will be cool and dry; the sky partly to mostly sunny with a high in the mid to upper 50s.

TRAVELERS BEWARE: A significant rain/snow event is likely tomorrow, on the busiest travel day of the year, up through the Northeast U.S. The heaviest snow will come along and west of I-95, with more rain than snow for some of the bigger cities. One way or another, expect major airport delays at Washington, Philadelphia, New York City, and Boston. Patience is the key tomorrow for fliers.

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THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND: Thursday will be sunny but cool with a high only in the 47-50 degree range; keep in mind the average high in Birmingham on November 27 is 61 degrees. We drop below freezing late Thursday night, and by early Friday morning we expect a low between 28 and 32.

We expect a slow warming trend Friday through Sunday; mid 50s Friday, low 60s Saturday, and mid to upper 60s Sunday. No rain on these three days; just a few scattered clouds over the weekend.

IRON BOWL: Doesn’t get much better. For the 6:45p CT kickoff in Tuscaloosa Saturday, we project a fair sky with temperatures in the upper 50s, falling slowly into the low 50s by the final whistle.

NEXT WEEK: The first half of the week looks dry and mild with temperatures well up in the 60s. The 00Z GFS suggests the next decent rain event for Alabama will be around Thursday December 4; see the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Scroll down for the show notes on the new episode we recorded last night.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day!

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WeatherBrains 461: I’m Thinking “Oh Crap”

| 5:15 am November 25, 2014

WeatherBrains Episode 461 is now online (November 24, 2014). If you are crazy about weather, this is THE netcast audio program for you!

Jen HendersonTonight’s Replacement Panelist is a writer and Ph.D. student at Virginia Tech in the Science and Technology Studies program. She’s currently at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, CO, where she’s studying how forecasters communicate certainty in short fused, high uncertainty events, like flash floods and tornadoes. She’s particularly interested in the challenges forecasters face in using ground truth reports by various groups in their decision making process, and in the history of citizen observation networks more generally. She is a WB Alum from show 416 last year. She is Jen Henderson.

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

  • Extremes: 89 at Fort Pierce, FL, and -3 at Eagle Nest, NM
  • Thanksgiving storm for the Northeast from Virginia to Maine
  • and more!
  • Our email bag officer brings us up-to-date on the latest mailings over the last couple of weeks.

    And while Nat is out tonight, he did have the forethought to send along a news clip!

    From The Weather Center:

    WeatherBrains 101: It’s not a warm front and it’s not a cold front, but it does mix the two! So what is an occluded front? That is the question and the topic for the 101 segment for this week.

    Listener SurveyListener Surveys: Okay, we continue to drive this topic into the ground, but we really do like to hear from you. Many thanks to everyone who has taken the time to fill out the Listener Survey. The survey takes just a minute or two to complete and provides us with an opportunity to learn where you are and hear your thoughts and comments on the show. Click here to take the survey.

    Web Sites from Episode 461:

    Watch/Warning Map from SPC

    Picks of the Week:

    Jen Henderson – Disaster Collaboratory

    Bill Murray – SPC Sounding Climatology

    Brian Peters – National Snow Analysis

    John Scala – Governor Criticizes the NWS and then Governor’s Backstep

    Kevin Selle – picks Rick Smith as his pick of the week

    Rick Smith – AMS Conference Severe Local Storms

    James Spann – SPC Plume Forecast

    Aubrey Urbanowicz – Space Weather

    The WeatherBrains crew includes your host, James Spann, plus other notable geeks like Nate Johnson, Bill Murray, Aubrey Urbanowicz, Dr. John Scala, Rick Smith, Kevin Selle, and Brian Peters. They bring together a wealth of weather knowledge and experience for another fascinating netcast about weather.

    Audible.com graphic

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    Colder Air Arrives Tonight

    | 3:54 pm November 24, 2014

    An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

    COMFORTABLE AFTERNOON: Doesn’t get much better; lots of sunshine this afternoon with temperatures in the 70s east of a cold front, that is passing through in dry fashion. However, northwest Alabama is considerably cooler with upper 50s there behind the surface front.

    Tonight will be mostly fair and colder; most communities will see a low between 36 and 40 degrees early tomorrow. Tomorrow will be cool and dry with a mix of sun and clouds and a high in the mid to upper 50s.

    SOME LIGHT RAIN TOMORROW NIGHT: A strong upper trough will bring the risk of some light rain to our state tomorrow night, mainly between 8:00 p.m. tomorrow and 4:00 a.m. Wednesday. The best chance of significant rain will come over the eastern half of the state, and even there amounts will be generally under 1/4 inch. Higher rain totals statewide will come around Dothan, in the southeast corner of Alabama.

    Wednesday will be cool and dry with a high in the 55-60 degree range along with a good supply of sunshine.

    TRAVELERS BEWARE: A nor’easter will bring the threat of snow and rain to the East Coast Wednesday, the biggest travel day of the year. Expect airport delays Wednesday in Washington, Philadelphia, New York City, and Boston.

    Screen Shot 2014-11-24 at 2.44.05 PM

    THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH SUNDAY: The weather looks very nice; expect sunshine in full supply Thursday and Friday with highs in the 50s. Coldest morning will come early Friday with upper 20s and low 30s. Saturday feature a partly sunny sky with a high in the low 60s, and on Sunday mid to upper 60s are likely with a mix of sun and clouds. We will mention a small risk of a shower over far North Alabama Sunday afternoon ahead of a cold front that will become stationary over Tennessee.

    IRON BOWL: A perfect night for football in Tuscaloosa Saturday (6:45p CT kickoff)… mostly fair with upper 50s at kickoff, and low 50s by the final whistle. No risk of rain.

    NEXT WEEK: December begins with very pleasant, dry weather with highs in the 60s. The 12Z GFS hints the next risk of rain will come around December 5-6. See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and details.

    WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s episode tonight at 8:30 CT… you can watch it on “James Spann 24/7″ on cable systems around the state, or on the web here.

    CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

    Facebook
    Twitter
    Google Plus
    Instagram

    Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

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    Becoming Windy; Colder Air Arrives Tonight

    | 6:29 am November 24, 2014

    An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

    AT DAYBREAK: It is a very pleasant morning with temperatures in the in the 60s; no rain is showing up on radar, and we don’t expect any today. It will be windy day with west winds averaging 12-22 mph, gusting at times over 25 mph. Dew points will drop steadily during the day as drier air works into the state; the sky should be partly sunny.

    MID-WEEK: Tomorrow will be dry and cooler with a mix of sun and clouds along with a high in the upper 50s. Then, tomorrow night, a strong upper trough will rotate over the state, and will bring clouds, and some risk of light rain. The best chance of rain will be south of I-59, and east of I-65 from about 7:00 p.m. tomorrow through 4:00 a.m. Wednesday. Rain amounts will be very light, and most people will sleep right through it.

    Then, the day Wednesday will be dry in Alabama with a decent amount of sunshine and a high in the 50s.

    TRAVELERS BEWARE: A nor’easter will bring wind, rain, and snow to the east coast region Wednesday, which many say is the biggest travel day of the year. The rain/snow line will be very close to Washington, Philadelphia, New York City, and Boston, and one way or another airport delays are likely. Potential for some big delays, in fact.

    wed_s

    THANKSGIVING DAY/BLACK FRIDAY/IRON BOWL SATURDAY: Looking very nice. For Thursday, we begin the day with temperatures down in the low to mid 30s, and the high will be in the low 50s. Sunshine in full supply. Pretty much the same story Friday; cool and dry with a high in the mid 50s.

    Then, we hit the low 60s Saturday afternoon with a partly sunny sky.

    IRON BOWL FORECAST: For the biggest football game in the state of Alabama, the weather looks perfect. Mostly fair when the game kicks off at 6:45 Saturday at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa; the temperature will fall from near 57 at kickoff into the low 50s by the final whistle. No chance of rain.

    SUNDAY AND NEXT WEEK: A cold front will approach the Alabama/Tennessee border late in the weekend, and we will mention a chance of showers Sunday, mainly north of U.S. 278 (Hamilton to Cullman to Gadsden). The upper air pattern won’t allow this front to move into the state, however, and it looks like we will enjoy highs in the 60s at least for the first half of next week.

    Model data from the GFS suggests the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will remain positive for the next 10-15 days, which should prevent any seriously cold air from invading the Deep South. See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and more details.

    WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s episode tonight at 8:30 CT… you can watch it on “James Spann 24/7″ on cable systems around the state, or on the web here.

    CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

    Facebook
    Twitter
    Google Plus
    Instagram

    Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon….

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    Watch County Notification

    | 2:44 pm November 23, 2014

    Aliant Bank is a proud sponsor of AlabamaWX.com!

    This is the text of a severe warning from the National Weather Service for part of the AlabamaWX.com coverage area. Standby for more details to be added to this post by our meteorologists.

    WWUS64 KBMX 232043
    WCNBMX

    WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 558
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
    243 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

    ALC005-081-087-113-232145-
    /O.CAN.KBMX.TO.A.0558.000000T0000Z-141124T0100Z/

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS CANCELLED TORNADO WATCH 558 FOR
    THE FOLLOWING AREAS

    IN ALABAMA THIS CANCELS 4 COUNTIES

    IN EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA

    LEE MACON RUSSELL

    IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA

    BARBOUR

    THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF…AUBURN…EUFAULA…OPELIKA…
    PHENIX CITY AND TUSKEGEE.

    $$

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    Severe Weather Threat Winding Down

    | 2:38 pm November 23, 2014
    Click image to enlarge..

    Click image to enlarge..

    The rain has ended at the Birmingham Airport and it appears that we will fall just short of one inch of rain today. 0.89 inches had fallen through 2:12 p.m Still, we are grateful for the beneficial rains and even more grateful that severe weather has not been widespread across the state.

    It does appear that a tornado may have touched down in eastern Barbour County. A Tornado Debris Signature was evident on radar as the storm prepared to move into Georgia. Trees were reported down at Lakepoint Resort near Eufaula.

    A tornado watch remains in effect for Southeast Alabama, but it will be cancelled for the Alabama counties shortly since the activity is now mostly into Georgia.

    To the north, just a steady rain as the line passes. Not even any lightning over Northeast Alabama, as the airmass is more stable thanks to the persistent easterly wedge that prevailed yesterday.

    As predicted, some clearing is evident on visible satellite imagery now over West Central Alabama. You will see some breaks in the clouds in the Birmingham Metro before sunset.

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    Tornado Warning Barbour County (Possible TDS at 2:10)

    | 2:00 pm November 23, 2014

    Aliant Bank is a proud sponsor of AlabamaWX.com!

    This storm likely produced a tornado as it crossed the Chattahoochee River into Georgia around 2:10. Check out the Tornado Debris Signature from the Fort Rucker Radar.

    2014-11-23_14-14-22

    It is evidenced by the low values (blues) on the correltaion coefficient panel (lower right panel on graphic).

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

    * TORNADO WARNING FOR…
    EAST CENTRAL BARBOUR COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA…

    * UNTIL 215 PM CST

    * AT 157 PM CST…THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A SEVERE
    THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM
    WAS LOCATED NEAR EUFAULA…AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

    * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
    LAKEPOINT RESORT STATE PARK AND TWIN SPRINGS.

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    Watch County Notification

    | 1:54 pm November 23, 2014

    Aliant Bank is a proud sponsor of AlabamaWX.com!

    This is the text of a severe warning from the National Weather Service for part of the AlabamaWX.com coverage area. Standby for more details to be added to this post by our meteorologists.

    WWUS64 KBMX 231953
    WCNBMX

    WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 558
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
    153 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

    ALC011-101-109-232100-
    /O.CAN.KBMX.TO.A.0558.000000T0000Z-141124T0100Z/

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS CANCELLED TORNADO WATCH 558 FOR
    THE FOLLOWING AREAS

    IN ALABAMA THIS CANCELS 3 COUNTIES

    IN CENTRAL ALABAMA

    MONTGOMERY

    IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA

    BULLOCK PIKE

    THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF…MONTGOMERY…
    TROY AND UNION SPRINGS.

    $$

    ALC005-081-087-113-240100-
    /O.CON.KBMX.TO.A.0558.000000T0000Z-141124T0100Z/

    TORNADO WATCH 558 REMAINS VALID UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
    THE FOLLOWING AREAS

    IN ALABAMA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 4 COUNTIES

    IN EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA

    LEE MACON RUSSELL

    IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA

    BARBOUR

    THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF…AUBURN…EUFAULA…OPELIKA…
    PHENIX CITY AND TUSKEGEE.

    $$

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