000
WTNT32 KNHC 030238
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 PM EDT THU SEP 02 2010

…CENTER OF EARL PASSING JUST EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS…NEW
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR NEW ENGLAND…

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…33.8N 74.4W
ABOUT 115 MI…185 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 570 MI…915 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…105 MPH…165 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 18 MPH…30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…951 MB…28.08 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS
FROM NORTH OF HULL TO THE MERRIMACK RIVER…AND FOR THE COAST OF
MAINE FROM STONINGTON TO EASTPORT.

ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS EXPANDED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO INCLUDE
PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND…THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM
NORTHWARD TO POINT TUPPER…AND FROM AULDS COVE IN NOVA SCOTIA
WESTWARD TO SHEDIAC IN NEW BRUNSWICK.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF SURF CITY NORTH
CAROLINA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS
* WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS EASTWARD AROUND CAPE COD TO HULL
MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLAND

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN
DELAWARE
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM MEDWAY HARBOUR TO DIGBY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY…INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET EASTWARD
ON THE SOUTH SHORE AND PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR EASTWARD ON THE NORTH
SHORE
* NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO WEST OF WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS…
INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND
* NORTH OF HULL MASSACHUSETTS TO THE MERRIMACK RIVER
* STONINGTON MAINE EASTWARD TO EASTPORT MAINE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NORTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER TO WEST OF STONINGTON MAINE
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET ON THE SOUTH
SHORE AND WEST OF PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR ON THE NORTH SHORE
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U.S./CANADA BORDER EASTWARD TO FORT
LAWRENCE AND FROM TIDNISH WESTWARD TO SHEDIAC
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE SOUTHWESTWARD TO DIGBY…MEDWAY
HARBOUR NORTHEASTWARD TO POINT TUPPER…AND AULDS COVE WESTWARD TO
TIDNISH
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO CANADA…PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 1100 PM EDT…0300 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 33.8 NORTH…LONGITUDE 74.4 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH…30 KM/HR. AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ARE EXPECTED IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER OF EARL
WILL PASS NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS TONIGHT…AND WILL
APPROACH SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT.

DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH…165
KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS…BUT EARL IS EXPECTED REMAIN A LARGE HURRICANE AS IT
PASSES NEAR THE OUTER BANKS AND APPROACHES SOUTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES…110 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
205 MILES…335 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 951 MB…28.08 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WINDS…TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA…AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE OUTER BANKS OVERNIGHT. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH THE COAST FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO
MASSACHUSETTS ON FRIDAY…AND SPREAD OVER THE COAST OF MAINE WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN MASSACHUSETTS FRIDAY NIGHT.

STORM SURGE…A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA OVER NORTH CAROLINA…AS WELL AS IN THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY.
STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA OVER MASSACHUSETTS.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA…STORM SURGE WILL
RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL.
NEAR THE COAST…THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

RAINFALL…EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES…OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS.
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5
INCHES…ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND. ACCUMULATIONS OF
1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA
NORTHWARD ALONG THE IMMEDIATE MID-ATLANTIC COAST…AS WELL AS OVER
DOWNEAST MAINE.

SURF…LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY…AND BEGIN TO SUBSIDE IN THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS OVERNIGHT. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE
DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY…200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BERG

Sure looks like there is now some eastward component of motion. While Earl is mainly moving north, it sure looks like the center will stay a little east of the Outer Banks later tonight, which is great news. With this path and the recent weakening trend, things look better for the North Carolina coast.

There will be some coastal flooding issues, but no major structural damage with this scenario. The 10:00 p.m. CDT advisory will be out shortly and we will post when issued.

These are some spot reports along coastal sections of the Mid Atlantic states as well as some offshore reports;

…..Cape Hatteras, light rain, wind NE 17, gusts 29
…..Beaufort, N.C., light rain, wind north 24, gusts 36
…..Norfolk, cloudy east 9 mph
…..Buoy 64 miles east of Virginia Beach, 11 foot waves at 12 second intervals
…..Diamond Shoals, N.C., water temperature 83, wind NE 38, gusts 47, 20-foot waves and 16 foot swells
…..Frying Pan Shoals, wind north 30, gusts 43, 13 foot waves and 10 foot swells
…..Quantico, Va., cloudy, wind SE 14
…..Ocean City, Md., cloudy, wind east 5
…..Myrtle Beach, S.C., partly cloudy, wind north, gusts 23

BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 34A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
800 PM EDT THU SEP 02 2010

…HURRICANE EARL CONTINUES NORTHWARD…RAINBANDS MOVING ONTO THE
COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA…

SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT…0000 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…33.0N 74.7W
ABOUT 160 MI…260 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 625 MI…1005 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…110 MPH…165 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 010 DEGREES AT 18 MPH…30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…948 MB…27.99 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS
* WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS EASTWARD AROUND CAPE COD TO HULL
MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLAND

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN
DELAWARE
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM MEDWAY HARBOUR TO DIGBY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY…INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET EASTWARD
ON THE SOUTH SHORE AND PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR EASTWARD ON THE NORTH
SHORE
* NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO WEST OF WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS…
INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NORTH OF HULL MASSACHUSETTS TO EASTPORT MAINE
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET ON THE SOUTH
SHORE AND WEST OF PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR ON THE NORTH SHORE
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM TO MEDWAY HARBOUR AND FROM DIGBY TO
FORT LAWRENCE
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM JUST WEST OF FORT LAWRENCE WESTWARD TO THE
U.S./CANADA BORDER

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES
…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE
UNITED STATES…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 800 PM EDT…0000 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE
33.0 NORTH…LONGITUDE 74.7 WEST. EARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH
NEAR 18 MPH…30 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK…THE CENTER OF EARL WILL PASS NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER
BANKS TONIGHT…AND APPROACH SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH…175 KM/HR
…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY…BUT EARL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A
LARGE AND STRONG HURRICANE AS IT PASSES NEAR THE OUTER BANKS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES…110 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES…335 KM. THE DIAMOND SHOALS BUOY…LOCATED ABOUT 20
MILES…30 KM…SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS…RECENTLY REPORTED A
WIND GUST TO 38 MPH…60 KM/HR.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 948 MB…27.99 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WINDS…TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA SOON. EVEN IF THE CENTER OF
EARL REMAINS OFFSHORE…HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR
IN THE OUTER BANKS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS
WILL LIKELY REACH THE COAST FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO
MASSACHUSETTS ON FRIDAY. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN MASSACHUSETTS FRIDAY NIGHT.

STORM SURGE…A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA OVER NORTH CAROLINA AND THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY. STORM SURGE
WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND
LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA OVER MASSACHUSETTS.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA…STORM SURGE WILL
RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL.
NEAR THE COAST…THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

RAINFALL…EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES…OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA…THE OUTER BANKS AND SOUTHEAST
NEW ENGLAND. ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM
EXTREME SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA NORTHWARD ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST…AS WELL AS OVER DOWNEAST MAINE.

SURF…LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE BAHAMAS
AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE
SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP
CURRENTS.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BERG

…..Diamond Shoals, N.C., wind east, gusts 35, 17 foot waves each 15 seconds

…..Frying Pan Shoals, wind NNE, gusts 38, 14-foot waves

…..Onshore at Kill Devil Hills, N.C., cloudy, wind NE 17

…..Cape Hatteras, cloudy, wind NE, gusts 22

…..Data buoy 150 miles east of Hatteras, sea surface temperature 82, wind ESE gusts 36, with 16 foot waves at intervals of 13 seconds

…..North Myrtle Beach, wind north, gusts 23

…..Weather buoy no. 41025, water temperature 84, wind east, gusts 34 with 17 foot waves and 13 foot swells.

The above observations were made between 3 and 4 pm CDT. More later.

A NASA pilotless drone has flown into Hurricane Earl today and produced images like this below. Read more about the drone and the mission here.

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

RIGHT NOW: Not quite as hot as forecast this afternoon, and nobody is griping about that. Birmingham is at 91 degrees at 2:00 (we expected 95 today)… although we do note Muscle Shoals is in the mid 90s with 96, and they are the state’s hot spot.

COLD FRONT ON THE WAY: How about these 2:00 p.m. observations… 65 at Omaha, Nebraska; 66 at Sioux City, Iowa, and 59 at Lamarie, Wyoming. That is the air headed out way, and the cold front is due in here tomorrow night. Ahead of the front, a narrow band of scattered showers and storms could form, but the moisture will be very limited, and widespread rain is not expected. The NAM is more aggressive than the GFS with the showers, but even that model is showing only 0.06″ for Birmingham.

LABOR DAY WEEKEND: Everything is still on target for a truly wonderful holiday weekend, with sunny pleasant days and clear cool nights. The high Saturday and Sunday will be in the mid 80s with low humidity levels, and the latest GFS run is printing 56 degrees for Birmingham at daybreak Sunday, followed by 59 on Monday. This will be our coolest air since May.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: Florida Atlantic plays UAB at Legion Field at 7:00 this evening. Clear weather, about 87 at kick off and about 80 in the fourth quarter. High school action will get into full gear Friday night. A few stadiums may get hit by a shower or a thunderstorm, but most will not. Both Alabama and Auburn will play home games Saturday night. Very nice weather, clear with temperatures about 78-80 at kick off and in the 60s by the final whistle. Jacksonville State plays at Ole Miss Saturday. It will be in the lower 80s for most of the game and clear. Georgia will be at Mississippi State Saturday night. Kick-off temperatures around 78 and 68 at the final whistle. Clear weather. Here in Birmingham, Miles College will be in the Labor Day Classic at Legion Field Sunday evening. Temperatures around 78 at kick off and falling off to the upper 60s.

EARL: Earl is now weakening, with top winds at 125 mph. Still, it is a category three storm with potential to bring coastal flooding along with downed trees and power lines from the Outer Banks of North Carolina north to Cape Cod. The weakening trend will continue as drier air is now entering the circulation, and the storm is encountering cooler SSTs (sea surface temperatures). Earl will pass within 150 miles of Cape Hatteras late tonight, and very close to Cape Cod late tomorrow night before making landfall in Nova Scotia Saturday morning.

FIONA: The tropical storm following Earl most likely remains a tropical storm; it will pass over Bermuda late tomorrow night before moving out to sea. No threat to the U.S.

GASTON: This system has weakened into a tropical depression today, but conditions seem to favor development in coming days on the long journey across the Atlantic. Gaston should be a hurricane approaching the Leeward Islands by the middle of next week. Still too early to determine if Gaston will recurve into the Atlantic, or come across the Caribbean and make a run at the Gulf of Mexico. Watch the Weather Xtreme video and you will see that the 12Z GFS suggests a potential landfall in North Carolina at mid-month, but we all know that is voodoo.

HERMINE? The system in the far eastern Atlantic looks well organized, and has the potential to become Tropical Storm Hermine over the Labor Day weekend.

GOM: And, convection continues over the Gulf of Mexico west of Key West, no sign of any organization for now. Much to watch in the tropics in coming weeks.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left.

FOLLOW ALONG: Here are our weather team Twitter accounts….

I had a wonderful time speaking at the monthly meeting of the Springville Chamber of Commerce today at the Springville Cafe; check out the cool cake they gave me…

Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

WTNT32 KNHC 021745
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 33A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
200 PM EDT THU SEP 02 2010

…EARL EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR THE OUTER BANKS AS A LARGE AND
POWERFUL HURRICANE TONIGHT…

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…31.7N 75.2W
ABOUT 245 MI…395 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 720 MI…1155 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…125 MPH…205 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 355 DEGREES AT 18 MPH…30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…943 MB…27.85 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR NOVA
SCOTIA FROM MEDWAY HARBOUR TO DIGBY…AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM TO MEDWAY HARBOUR AND FROM DIGBY TO
FORT LAWRENCE.

THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE HAS ALSO ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR NEW BRUNSWICK FROM JUST WEST OF FORT LAWRENCE WESTWARD TO THE
U.S./CANADA BORDER.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS.
* WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS EASTWARD AROUND CAPE COD TO HULL INCLUDING
MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLAND

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN
DELAWARE.
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM MEDWAY HARBOUR TO DIGBY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA.
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY…INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT.
* THE EASTERN PORTION OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET
TO PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR.
* NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO WEST OF WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS…
INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NORTH OF HULL MASSACHUSETTS TO EASTPORT MAINE.
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET AND PORT
JEFFERSON HARBOR.
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM TO MEDWAY HARBOUR AND FROM DIGBY TO
FORT LAWRENCE.
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM JUST WEST OF FORT LAWRENCE WESTWARD TO THE
U.S./CANADA BORDER.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 200 PM EDT…1800 UTC…THE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 31.7 NORTH…LONGITUDE 75.2 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 18 MPH…30 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER OF EARL WILL PASS NEAR
THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS TONIGHT…AND APPROACH SOUTHEASTERN
NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT.

DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT EARL HAS BEGUN TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH…205
KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD
CONTINUE TODAY AND FRIDAY…BUT EARL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A
POWERFUL HURRICANE AS IT PASSES NEAR THE OUTER BANKS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES…150 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230
MILES…370 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE
WAS 943 MB…27.85 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WINDS…TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN IF
THE CENTER OF EARL REMAINS OFFSHORE…HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE OUTER BANKS BY TONIGHT. TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH THE COAST FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO
NEW JERSEY TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.

STORM SURGE…A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN BOTH HURRICANE WARNING
AREAS AND THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY. ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA…STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. NEAR THE COAST…THE SURGE WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

RAINFALL…ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES…WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES…ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS. ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FARTHER TO THE NORTH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST.

SURF…LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE BAHAMAS
AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE
SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP
CURRENTS.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Earl has turned nearly due north this morning, as expected (great job NHC).  It will be very rough in the outer banks of NC, even if there is no direct hit, since max winds are 140 mph and oneshore flow north of storm will cause storm surge and large waves.  Landfall may actually occur near Cape Cod tomorrow night, but the hurricane should weaken some by then.  However, the size of this hurricane will cause its effects to be felt by milliions of people, as it runs offshore of the Washington/Baltimore/Philly/NYC/Boston area, with winds up to 50 mph, coastal storm surge, and waves.

NOTE: This is the latest “discussion” about Earl instead of the formal advisory. As the day goes on (and tonight) we will be posting the regular advisories and more frequent spot reports along and offshore including buoy reports and local statements.
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WTNT42 KNHC 021456
TCDAT2
HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 AM EDT THU SEP 02 2010

THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE STRUCTURE OF EARL
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER..MICROWAVE INAGERY SUGGEST THAT
AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT COULD OCCUR SOON…IN WHICH CASE THE WIND
FIELD WOULD BECOME LARGER. THE HURRICANE CONTINUES WITH A DISTINCT
EYE SURROUNDED BY DEEP CONVECTION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
AND DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT A FEW HOURS AGO INDICATE
THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 120 KNOTS. EARL PROBABLY HAS ALREADY
REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY AND IT SHOULD SOON BEGIN TO WEAKEN
GRADUALLY AS THE SHEAR INCREASES. THE HURRICANE SHOULD WEAKEN EVEN
FASTER AFTER 36 HOURS…AS IT MOVES OVER A COLDER OCEAN. EARL
SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 72 HOURS AND DISSIPATE THEREAFTER AS
IT BECOMES ABSORBED BY A MUCH LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.

AS ANTICIPATED…EARL HAS BEGUN TO MOVE NORTHWARD OR 355 DEGREES AT
16 KNOTS. SINCE THE STEERING PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED…EARL IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE NORTHWARD TODAY. IN ABOUT 24 HOURS…THE
HURRICANE SHOULD BE ENCOUNTERING THE BASE OF THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES AND EARL SHOULD THEN TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
AND NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS SHARP TURN
HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY INDICATED FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST AND BY THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED TRACK GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/1500Z 30.9N 74.8W 120 KT
12HR VT 03/0000Z 33.5N 75.0W 115 KT
24HR VT 03/1200Z 36.5N 73.5W 100 KT
36HR VT 04/0000Z 40.0N 70.8W 85 KT
48HR VT 04/1200Z 44.0N 67.0W 65 KT
72HR VT 05/1200Z 53.5N 62.0W 40 KT…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96HR VT 06/1200Z…ABSORBED BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW

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FORECASTER AVILA