An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

Ahhh… the Beatles…

“Here comes the sun, doo da doo doo
Here comes the sun, and I say
It’s alright

Little darling
It’s been a long, cold, lonely winter
Little darling
It feels like years since it’s been here

Here comes the sun
Here comes the sun, and I say
It’s alright”

Thanks to James from Tuscaloosa for that suggestion; very appropriate with the sun now breaking out across the state for the first time in days.

TOMORROW: We are still promising a beautiful day to wrap up the work week, with ample sunshine and a high in the low 70s. The weather around here will finally feel like spring.

WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM: Saturday will be mild and breezy with a mix of sun and clouds. We might even reach the mid 70s Saturday afternoon, ahead of a cold front that will bring sharp changes Sunday.

STORMY SUNDAY MORNING: The models continue to trend deeper and slower with our weekend system. The NAM and the GFS hint the best chance of rain and storms will come from 2:00 a.m. until 2:00 p.m. Sunday. Dynamics are very impressive with very high uvv values, but the thermodynamics remain very weak with no surface based instability. Watch the Weather Xtreme video for details; should we actually wind up with some instability, severe storms could very well be a possibility. We are projecting rain amounts of 1/2 to 1 inch statewide.

And, as the storms move out during the midday hours Sunday, colder air moves in. Sunday looks like a day with a high around 60 degrees just prior to the arrival of the storms, followed by temperatures falling into the mid to upper 40s during the afternoon with lingering clouds and a brisk northwest wind.

NEXT WEEK: The 12Z GFS keeps moisture over Alabama Monday, with low clouds and even some risk of drizzle during the morning hours. This solution will keep everybody above freezing; the GFS MOS shows a low of 39 degrees for Birmingham early Monday. The high will be limited to the low 50s Monday if the clouds do indeed hang around. Tuesday and Wednesday will be dry and warmer, with a high around 70 Wednesday. Then, our weather turns wet again with periods of rain and possibly a thunderstorm or two on Thursday and Friday.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left.

FOLLOW ALONG: Here are our weather team Twitter accounts….

Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow….

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

How about this one from the musical “Annie”?

“The sun’ll come out
Tomorrow
Bet your bottom dollar
That tomorrow
There’ll be sun!

Just thinkin’ about
Tomorrow
Clears away the cobwebs,
And the sorrow
‘Til there’s none!”

TODAY: We begin the day with the persistent cloud cover across Alabama, but there is actually a chance the sun will peek out at times this afternoon as sinking air begins to crush the clouds away. If we can see a little sun, we will see a high today around 60 degrees. We should note there is some risk of a little light rain or drizzle in spots this morning, but nothing really significant.

TOMORROW: This continues to be the day with the best promise of sunshine this week; a sunny sky with a high in the low 70s. Sure sounds good, and let’s hope we are right!

WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM: The global models are trending stronger with our weekend storm system, but before it gets here we will enjoy one more mild and dry day on Saturday, with a mix of sun and clouds and a high in the low 70s. Winds will pick up during the day (out of the southwest), and clouds will thicken by late afternoon.

Watch the Weather Xtreme video and you will see how the 00Z GFS handles the situation. It is stronger, and slower, bringing in the band of showers and storms Sunday morning, with the target time in the 3:00 to 9:00 a.m. time range. Dynamic forcing looks pretty impressive, and with some very decent helicity values, we will really have to monitor this system for severe weather potential. As we have pointed out here in recent days, the limiting factor is instability. Models continue to show no surface based CAPE (convective available potential energy) here in Alabama, which could keep the whole thing in check. However, if we do wind up with some instability, especially if the storms come in after sunrise, we might be dealing with a squall line with good potential for damaging wind. We will keep an eye on this as the weekend gets closer.

As the rain moves out, much colder air moves in. Sunday will be a rather raw day with lingering clouds, a chilly northwest wind, and temperatures hovering in the 45 to 50 degree range during the day.

NEXT WEEK: The 00Z GFS is printing 39 degrees Monday morning; we will continue to forecast mid 30s, with potential for a freeze for the colder valleys and protected areas across North and Central Alabama. But, we warm into the low 60s Monday afternoon with a good supply of sunshine. The weather will be dry and mild on Tuesday and Wednesday, but things turn wet at the end of the week, with rain likely on Thursday and Friday (March 25-26).

FOLLOW ALONG: Here are our weather team Twitter accounts….

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left.

Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 this afternoon… enjoy the day!

Tis the season for severe weather in Alabama. Our spring tornado season is here, and now is the time to think about your family’s severe weather safety plan. Blog readers know the deal; you should never rely on an outdoor warning siren to alert you to an approaching tornado. Every home and business must have a NOAA Weather Radio to guarantee you get the warning.

This year, ABC 33/40 is working with Midland Radio to make these radios available to you on a widespread and inexpensive basis. This year, the Midland WR-100 NOAA Weather Radio will be available in all Publix and Handy TV locations across North-Central Alabama; look for this display…

Long time readers know that J.B. and I pay close attention to weather conditions up in the big state, especially during the cold weather season when brutally cold air shows up. We all know it is generally a matter of time before that air moves and drops down into the continental U.S.

We have a number of good friends in Alaska, including ABC 33/40 Skywatcher Kristie Calvin, who moved up there last year from North Alabama. Kristie actually lives in a community called “North Pole”, and sure has some interesting weather to report. She has recently started a blog, and I thought I would share that link with you. Even in the summer some amazing weather can be reported up there.

You can see Kristie’s blog here… that will be fun to watch as the weather changes across “The Last Frontier”…

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

Anybody remember this one by Brother Bill Withers?

“Ain’t no sunshine when she she’s gone
it’s not warm when she’s away
Ain’t no sunshine when she’s gone
And she’s always gone too long anytime she goes away.
Wonder this time where she’s gone wonder if she’s gonna stay”

I think the lack of a bright, sunny sky is beginning to get on some nerves, but just hang on until Friday and you will have the kind of day you want.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW: An upper low over the Southeast U.S. will keep us cloudy and cool through tomorrow. The sun might pop out at times tomorrow, but don’t hold your breath. And, don’t believe the model output statistics (MOS) products from the models; they have been way too warm all week. We might make it to 60 tomorrow, but no promises for sure. And, we should mention we will have to maintain the chance of a little scattered light rain or drizzle at times, but rain amounts, if any, should be light and spotty.

FRIDAY: How about a bright sunny day with a high in the low 70s? That is what we will forecast on Friday; it will finally feel like spring. Bone crushing subsidence under a ridge aloft will send the clouds packing.

THE WEEKEND: Saturday still looks pretty decent; it will be a mild and breezy day with a mix of sun and clouds and a high in the low 70s. Clouds will begin to thicken by afternoon as a cold front gets closer. That front will bring a band of showers and storms to Alabama late Saturday night into early Sunday morning; watch the Weather Xtreme video and you will see the 12Z run of the GFS is a little faster, suggesting the showers and storms will come in the 9:00 p.m. Saturday to 9:00 a.m. Sunday time frame. Rain amounts of 1/2 to 1 inch are likely, and with no surface based instability, the chance of a big severe weather event remains low. But, you have to keep an eye on any system like this in mid-March for possible surprises.

Sunday looks like a raw, breezy, cool day with lingering clouds. I would not be shocked if we spend the day in the 40s.

NEXT WEEK: Monday morning still looks cold. The new GFS is printing 36 degrees for Birmingham; I think it is best to forecast lows in the mid 30s, but look out for a freeze across the colder valleys and protected areas of North and Central Alabama. Then, a warming trend begins Monday afternoon with a high in the mid 60s; we rise to near 70 on Tuesday with a sunny sky. The GFS remains steady in forecasting the next significant rain event for Alabama on Thursday of next week, March 25.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left. Scroll down for the notes on this week’s new episode.

FOLLOW ALONG: Here are our weather team Twitter accounts….

Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow….

I get many questions just like this one that came in this morning…

“When will it finally be safe to start planting flowers and doing landscaping projects without fear of cold temps killing the plants at night? A rough estimate is fine.”

First off, there isn’t much skill in a specific forecast beyond seven days, but there is some skill at pattern recognition and thoughts on possible weather out to 16 days.

NEXT SEVEN DAYS: We are looking at lows in the mid 30s early Monday of next week, and that would mean a potential freeze for the colder valleys across the northern half of Alabama. That is the only morning with some freeze possibilities during our forecast period.

LONG RANGE: Let’s talk statistics… the information below is for Birmingham, based on weather records from 1895-2010:

Earliest last freeze – February 3rd, 1945
Average date of last Spring freeze – March 26th
Latest Spring freezing temperature – April 23rd, 1986
Earliest Autumn freezing temperature – October 18th, 1948
Average date of first Autumn freeze – November 9th
Latest first freeze – January 10th, 1932

So, the average date of the last Spring freeze is March 26; nine days away. Needless to say, it is too early to plant anything now that could be harmed by freezing temperatures. And, you can see we have had a freeze as late as April 23.

Based on the projected Arctic Oscillation, which stays negative into mid-April, we have to figure we will have on or two freeze threats perhaps into early April (see the bottom chart below)…

BOTTOM LINE: If you want to be perfectly safe, wait until April 15. However, I would suggest odds are pretty good you will be safe from a freeze beginning April 10. But, understand there are no guarantees in the weather business!

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

CLOUDS WON’T GO AWAY: Sure looks like another day with an overcast sky for Alabama; guess we should be used to it by now. A disturbance moving along the Gulf Coast will keep us cloudy today, and cool as well. Like recent days, we won’t get out of the 50s today, and some places north of Birmingham will have a hard time getting out of the 40s.

Rain is falling this morning along the coast, and we will have to mention the chance of a little scattered light rain up this way late today and tonight, but rain amounts, if any, should be pretty spotty.

I do think we have a chance at seeing a little sunshine tomorrow, and also there is a chance that we finally get back into the low to mid 60s by afternoon. We will mention an outside risk of a shower tomorrow with yet another impulse moving through, but many communities will stay dry.

FINALLY ON FRIDAY: This is the day we advertise as the nicest day this week. Sunshine returns in full force with a high around 70 degrees… the weather will finally look and feel like spring. The GFS and the NAM both print a high of 71 degrees in Birmingham on Friday; sure sounds good.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK: Saturday will stay dry and mild with a mix of sun and clouds and high in the low 70s, but a cold front will bring changes on Sunday.

Watch the Weather Xtreme video and you will see the 00Z GFS is more aggressive with the upper trough, and accordingly the surface features. Dynamics on this run would support a chance of strong to severe storms early Sunday morning, however thermodynamics are simply not here for severe weather with no surface based instability. So, for now the chance of major severe weather problems continues to look low, but if instability values happen to be higher than forecast, we might be burning the midnight oil.

The main window for showers and thunderstorms will come Sunday morning, from 1:00 a.m. until 1:00 p.m. Rain amounts around 1 inch are likely. And, in the wake of the storms, Sunday should be sharply colder with temperatures holding around 50 degrees all day with lingering clouds and a chilly north breeze. Sunday certainly won’t be a “Chamber of Commerce” day around here.

NEXT WEEK: The GFS has totally backed off on the idea of a surface wave in the Northeast Gulf Monday, so it looks like the sky will clear Sunday night, and that should allow temperatures to fall into the mid 30s Monday morning. While a widespread freeze doesn’t seem likely, some of the colder pockets across North and Central Alabama could dip below 32 for a brief time. Monday and Tuesday will be dry with a good supply of sunshine and a warming trend. Rain returns, however, before the week is over; the latest GFS run targets Thursday (March 25) as the main rain day next week.

THE LAND OF VOODOO: Changeable is the word; no way to be specific in this active pattern, but occasional rain producing systems and shots of colder air are likely into the first part of April.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left. Scroll down for the show notes on this week’s new episode.

FOLLOW ALONG: Here are our weather team Twitter accounts….

Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3;30 this afternoon… enjoy the day!

WeatherBrains Episode 216 is now online (Mar. 16, 2010). If you are crazy about weather, this is THE netcast audio program for you!

Joining us this week are two members of the emergency management community. Weather is an integral part of what emergency managers deal with on a daily basis, whether it is a tornado or severe thunderstorm threat or dealing with wind when a toxic or hazardous material spill has occurred.

From the City of Battle Creek, Michigan, we have Jim Zoss, the Emergency Service Director. He has been in emergency management for 28 years.

Also joining us is Rob Dale. He grew up in Toledo and got his degree in Atmospheric Sciences from Purdue. He worked for the ABC affiliate in Toledo then moved to Lansing where he was the meteorologist at WLNS, the CBS affiliate. He furthered his education in Emergency Management at Jacksonville State University. He is now the Regional Planner at Eaton County Emergency Management Services. He is also the owner of Skywatch Services.

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

Our mail bag officer, Kevin what’s his name, puts the latest email on display despite being a trifle light.

From The Weather Center:

WeatherBrains 101: Satellite imagery is a big main stay for the field meteorology. Satellites, especially the geostationary synchronous orbiting ones provide meteorologists with a wealth of information. The illustrious professor begins a three part series on satellite data beginning with infrared imagery.

TWIWH: Bill Murray looks back at the week of March 16th.

Listener Surveys: Okay, we continue to drive this topic into the ground, but we really do like to hear from you. Many thanks to everyone who has taken the time to fill out the Listener Survey. The survey takes just a minute or two to complete and provides us with an opportunity to learn where you are and hear your thoughts and comments on the show. Click here to take the survey.

Web Sites from Episode 216:

Skywatch Services, LLC

Battle Creek, MI, Emergency Services

Eaton County, MI, Emergency Services

Picks of the Week:

JB Elliott – Weather Folklore

Brian Peters – ESA – European Space Agency Images

Kevin Selle – MOS-Differential Tool

James Spann – A Look Back at the 1925 Tri-State Tornado

The WeatherBrains crew includes your host, James Spann, plus other notable geeks like JB Elliott, Kevin Selle, and Brian Peters. They bring together a wealth of weather knowledge and experience for another fascinating netcast about weather.

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

CLOUDS HANG TOUGH: An interesting day for Alabama; the sun is shining brightly at Montgomery and points south, but clouds are going nowhere over the northern half of the state. And, with no sun at all, temperatures remain a good 15 degrees below average for mid-March. And, quite frankly, with only 50 degrees at Birmingham at 3:00, that is 10 degrees below our forecast for today. Quite the bust.

TOMORROW AND THURSDAY: Sure looks like we won’t see much sunshine at all tomorrow, and just a limited amount on Thursday. And, on both days, we will mention the chance of some scattered light rain statewide. Rain amounts should be light and spotty; the NAM is printing only 0.02″ of rain for Birmingham though mid-week, with the GFS showing 0.07″.

FRIDAY: This still looks like the best day of the week, with a good supply of sunshine returning along with a high around 70 degrees. It will feel much, much better by then.

THE WEEKEND: The 12Z GFS is a little slower with our weekend cold front. Saturday looks dry and mild with a high in the low 70s. Clouds will gradually increase during the day, and a shower could arrive late Saturday night, after midnight. The main window for showers and storms seems to be from about 4:00 a.m. through 1:00 p.m. Sunday. The chance of severe weather and heavy rain still looks low at this point, although the 12Z GFS is a little more aggressive with the moisture. See the Weather Xtreme video for more details. Sunday will be sharply colder with temperatures possibly holding in the 40s all day.

NEXT WEEK: Monday looks chilly, with a high around 50 following a morning low in the 30s. The latest GFS does not show a surface wave in the Northeast Gulf of Mexico, which could mean potential for some clearing and a colder morning. MOS shows a low of 35 degrees for Birmingham at daybreak Monday; we will be on the lookout for potential for a late season freeze as we get closer. Tuesday and Wednesday look dry with a warming trend.

LONG RANGE: The weather looks very changeable as we wrap up the month of March, with potential for a few wet weather systems and cold snaps. Impossible to be specific far in advance with this type of active pattern.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left. We will record this week’s show tonight; it will be available by 11:00 p.m.

FOLLOW ALONG: Here are our weather team Twitter accounts….

I had a great time today seeing the 2nd graders at Odenville Elementary… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News. The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

DATELINE FARGO
Fargo is a neat city in extreme East North Dakota on I-94. Directly across the Red River of the North is Moorhead, Minnesota. The Red River is a south/north river–it runs north.

The area population is about 90,600. An agricultural area. I drove through Fargo about 3 o’clock one morning on the way back from Rogers Pass, Mont., and headed for Alabama, but also in search of fresh coffee. It seemed like a very nice area. So, you ask, why this information on a weather BLOG? (See Below)

BUCKS FOR BAGS
This morning, Fargo city officials launched a program called “Bucks for Bags.” Remember the critical flooding there last spring during snow melt? The problem is back again. The Red River is expected to crest later as much as 20 feet above flood stage. The city is going to pay volunteers to fill one million sandbags by March 17. Volunteers will be bused to a designated location where a vast effort will get under way to fill those bags. It is vital to prevent another flood disaster. Volunteers will be paid from the Fargo Emergency Fund.

HOW MUCH SNOW?
The morning snow survey shows that 23.5% of the lower 48 states has a blanket of snow this morning. However, all of North Dakota still has a blanket that ranges from 4 inches to as much as 24 inches.The dreaded spring melt is ahead. The daily snow survey also includes estimated water content of the snow. Based on that estimate, if all the snow in North Dakota were to melt quickly it would be like getting six to eight inches of rain.

USA EXTREMES
Warmest yesterday Lake Forest, California with 84. Coldest in the lower 48 this morning was 10 at Stanley, Idaho. In Alaska, the low this morning was 37 below at good old Deadhorse where the wind chill was 57 below. There is 68 inches of snow on the ground at Valdez and 79 inches at Whittier.

LONG, LONG RANGE FORECAST
We all know that real extended forecasts need to be taken with at least a grain of salt and sometimes a whole box of salt. But let’s mention the three-month outlook for March, April and May from the Climate Prediction Center. It calls for temperatures to average below normal all the way from Texas, Oklahoma and Louisiana east across Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Florida and the Carolinas. Precipitation about average.

THE ABC 33/40 WEATHER BLOG
Scroll down and see the post by James a little earlier this morning. I pledge to continue my small part of keeping the 33/40 BLOG posted with material that is not only interesting, but beneficial–although, at times, my posts are not that interesting or beneficial.